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Urban Household Food Security and Coping Strategies Adopted

Under Rising Food Prices in Osun State, Nigeria

Olarinre, Abiola Adebunmi

Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ilesa, Ilesa. Osun State.

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.51584/IJRIAS.2025.10100000188

Received: 11 November 2025; Accepted: 17 November 2025; Published: 22 November 2025

ABSTRACT

This research analyzed urban household food security and coping mechanisms in response to increasing food

prices in Osun State, Nigeria, with an emphasis on the cities of Osogbo, Ile-Ife, and Ilesa. A multi-stage

sampling technique was employed to survey 240 households, with data analyzed using the Household Food

Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), multinomial logistic regression, and the Coping Strategy Index (CSI).

Findings indicated that merely 17.9% of households achieved food security, whereas 39.6% and 16.3%

experienced moderate and severe food insecurity, respectively. Household income, education, household size,

access to credit, and the share of food expenditure significantly influenced food security. Households

predominantly employed mild coping strategies, including the consumption of less expensive foods and the

reduction of meal portions, whereas severe strategies were primarily observed among those experiencing

significant food insecurity. Recommended policies encompass urban food support initiatives, the promotion of

urban agriculture, social protection programs, access to microcredit, and nutrition education. The research

underscores the necessity for cohesive strategies to enhance urban food accessibility and resilience, thereby

supporting Sustainable Development Goal 2: Zero Hunger.

Keywords: Food Security, Coping Strategies, Urban Households, Food Prices, Osun State

INTRODUCTION

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2023), food security is defined as the condition in

which all individuals, at all times, has physical, social, and economic access to adequate, safe, and nutritious

food that satisfies their dietary requirements and preferences for an active and healthy lifestyle. Nigerian urban

households see increasing difficulties in attaining this objective, primarily due to rising food prices and

macroeconomic pressures. In recent years, food price inflation in metropolitan regions has surpassed 30%,

diminishing household purchasing power and limiting access to healthful food (Christofides & Baldwin-

Ragaven, 2024; Tolulope, 2022). Urban households are more susceptible due to their dependence on market

acquisitions instead of self-sustained food production, rendering them exposed to price fluctuations and supply

interruptions. Urbanization in Nigeria has transformed dietary patterns and food expenditure shares, hence

redefining household consumption and food security dynamics. Research indicates that income, education,

household size, and employment status substantially affect urban household food security (Okoruwa &

Ikudayisi, 2018; Adio et al., 2025). Additionally, both global and domestic influences, including crude oil price

fluctuations, currency devaluation, and market volatility, intensify food price inflation, hence jeopardizing

urban food security (Mosab & Adelakun, 2022). In reaction to escalating food prices, urban households

implement diverse coping mechanisms, such as decreasing meal frequency, opting for less expensive items,

borrowing, or pursuing social help. Although these measures assist households in addressing immediate food

shortages, they may adversely impact nutrition, health, and long-term resilience (FAO, 2023; Christofides &

Baldwin-Ragaven, 2024).

In Osun State, southwestern Nigeria, these national patterns are especially prominent. Urban hubs like Osogbo,

Ilesa, and Ile-Ife are experiencing significant population growth, with numerous households depending on

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market-acquired commodities, vegetables, and processed goods. Given the impact of food inflation on

household finances, it is essential to evaluate urban household food security and their adaptive strategies.

Nonetheless, empirical studies regarding food security under price fluctuations in Osun State are scarce.

This study therefore aims to:

1. Describe the Socio-Economic Characteristics of Respondents

2. Evaluate the frequency and severity of food insecurity among urban households in Osun State.

3. Identify the socio-economic and institutional factors influencing urban food security.

4. Examine the coping strategies employed by urban households and their variations based on income,

household size, and other variables.

This research is pertinent to Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger), which aims to eradicate hunger,

attain food security, enhance nutrition, and foster sustainable agriculture (UN, 2015). The study identifies food

insecure urban households and their coping strategies, so contributing to SDG 2 Target 2.1, which aims to

ensure access to adequate and nutritious food, and informs policy actions to sustain resilience against food

price fluctuations.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Empirical research indicates that urban food insecurity is significantly associated with macroeconomic

instability and increasing living expenses. Akinbode (2022) indicated that Nigerian households allocate more

than 60% of their income to food, rendering them particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in food prices. Adio et

al., (2025) similarly discovered that inflationary pressures and volatile market prices intensify food poverty in

metropolitan areas. Urban impoverished households frequently employ coping methods such as decreasing

meal frequency, opting for less expensive food options, or depending on informal social networks (Olarinre et

al., 2024). The strength and complexity of coping techniques fluctuate according to financial levels, education,

and availability of social support. Urban household food security in Nigeria is increasingly threatened by

escalating food prices, inflation, and socio-economic vulnerabilities. Fluctuations in food prices diminish

households' purchasing power, hence limiting access to enough and nutritious food, a fundamental aspect of

food security (Tolulope, 2022). Macro-economic factors, such as exchange-rate depreciation and energy price

volatility, substantially drive food price inflation, exacerbating the susceptibility of urban households who

depend predominantly on market-acquired food (Tabash & Adelakun, 2022). Empirical research indicates that

urban families are disproportionately impacted by price fluctuations. Christofides and Baldwin-Ragaven (2024)

indicated that urban households in Sub-Saharan Africa experience significant food insecurity due to inflation,

particularly affecting low-income households, which are the most susceptible. In the slums of Ibadan, 88% of

households faced food scarcity, with 40.2% experiencing extreme food insecurity. Prevalent coping techniques

encompassed decreasing portion sizes, opting for less expensive food alternatives, borrowing, and omitting

meals (Christofides & Baldwin-Ragaven, 2024; Iheme, 2020). Adio et al. (2025) highlighted that households

implement adaptive measures in reaction to economic and environmental pressures, demonstrating their ability

to manage limited food access. Socio-economic characteristics consistently affect food security results.

Income, education, household size, and dependency ratios are critical factors influencing food security.

Ogwumike (2019) discovered that larger households characterized by low income and poor educational

attainment exhibited a higher susceptibility to food insecurity in southwestern Nigeria. Akinbode (2022)

emphasized that affluent households possess a greater capacity to withstand shocks from food price inflation,

hence diminishing the probability of acute food insecurity. Households led by females are often more

susceptible to vulnerability due to restricted income prospects and elevated dependency ratios (Obiora et al.,

2023). Coping skills are essential in alleviating food insecurity. Restrictive methods, including decreasing meal

frequency or opting for inferior food quality, safeguard short-term consumption but may jeopardize nutrition

and long-term well-being (Iheme, 2020). Strategies reliant on assistance, such as borrowing or utilizing social

support networks, might mitigate immediate stress but may engender future vulnerabilities if excessively

employed (Adio et al., 2025).

Recent empirical studies indicate that increasing food prices pose a significant threat to food security for

Nigerian households, especially in urban regions. Otekunrin et al., (2023) found that urban households

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characterized by lower educational attainment, larger family sizes, and restricted income are more susceptible

to food insecurity, resulting in deteriorating nutrition and diet quality during inflationary periods. Samuel et al.,

(2020) observed that households in Ibadan frequently decreased meal frequency and portion sizes in response

to rising food prices, often at the expense of dietary diversity. Recent studies indicate comparable trends. A

2024 study of households in Ibadan’s urban slums indicated that inflation and disrupted income flows resulted

in significant food insecurity, characterized by coping strategies such as meal skipping, food rationing, and the

substitution of nutritionally inferior staples (Adeyemo et al., 2024). Evidence from Southwest Nigeria indicates

that income, education, and household size were statistically significant predictors of food insecurity during the

COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrating how economic shocks and price fluctuations increase vulnerability

(Akinbode et al., 2022). In addition to consumption-based strategies, financial coping mechanisms are

prevalent. The 2022 World Bank Nigeria Poverty Assessment indicated that 69.7% of households decreased

food consumption in response to price shocks, whereas 44% utilized savings or borrowed funds to manage the

situation. The findings correspond with media reports indicating a heightened reliance on informal credit, more

affordable staples like cassava, and bulk purchasing strategies to reduce food expenses (Vanguard News,

2022). The literature consistently indicates that household socio-economic characteristics, particularly income,

education level, household size, and dependency burden, influence the intensity and nature of coping strategies

employed during periods of increasing food prices. The studies offer substantial support for regression-based

analysis connecting household characteristics to coping strategies in this research.

This study employs a multi-model theoretical framework to evaluate urban family food security under growing

food costs in Osun State, Nigeria. The FAO Four Pillars Model which emphasizes on availability, access,

utilization, and stability provides the foundational structure, highlighting how households may experience

reduced food access, consumption of lower-quality diets, and instability in meeting nutritional needs due to

inflation (Guiné et al., 2021; FAO, 2023). Complementing this, the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF)

highlights household assets that is human, social, financial, physical, and natural which are all that determines

coping ability. Education, income, social networks, and access to credit serve as protective elements enabling

households to cushion shocks, while asset-poor households adopt more erosive coping mechanisms (Scoones,

1998; Ahmad & Köpke, 2024). To represent the dynamic aspect of urban food insecurity, System Dynamics

models are incorporated. These emphasize feedback loops where rising food prices influence household

consumption, which in turn affects local demand and market behavior, creating complex, non-linear

consequences on food security (System dynamics analysis: Nigeria, 2025; Manikas et al., 2023). Finally, Food

Sovereignty and Governance frameworks contextualize structural influences on household vulnerability. They

highlight the role of local market laws, participatory decision-making, and governmental interventions in

determining access to food and minimizing detrimental coping strategies (Rethinking alternatives: Food

sovereignty, 2023; Onje, 2025). By merging these models, the study captures the interplay between household-

level capacities, market dynamics, and systemic governance factors, providing a robust theoretical lens for

assessing coping mechanisms under food price inflation.

Notwithstanding the expanding body of literature, empirical information about urban family food security in

the context of escalating food costs at the state level, especially in Osun State, remains scarce. The interaction

of price fluctuations, socio-economic factors, and adaptive strategies is insufficiently examined, underscoring

the necessity for localized research to guide context-specific actions. This study aims to address this gap by

analyzing the prevalence, causes, and coping methods of urban food-insecure households in Osun State.

METHODOLOGY

Study Area

The research was carried out in Osogbo, Ile-Ife, and Ilesa, prominent urban centers in Osun State, southwestern

Nigeria, noted for their high population density and swift urbanization. Households in these cities primarily

depend on purchased food instead of self-production, rendering them particularly susceptible to price changes

(Christofides & Baldwin-Ragaven, 2024). Osogbo, the state capital, and Ilesa, a commercial center, possess

varied revenue streams but contend with elevated living expenses, whereas Ile-Ife demonstrates a blend of

urban and rural economic characteristics.

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Sampling Technique

A multi-stage sample method was used to ensure representative data from urban homes in Osun State. At the

initial stage, three urban centers, that is Osogbo, Ile-Ife, and Ilesa were purposively chosen based on their

significant population density, economic activity, and dependence on market-acquired food (Christofides &

Baldwin-Ragaven, 2024). In the second stage, the two local government in each of the cities were chosen to

account for disparities in socio-economic status, market accessibility, and urban infrastructure. In the last stage,

systematic random sampling was employed to choose 240 families, 40 from each local government household

lists, guaranteeing that each household had an equal probability of inclusion (Adio et al., 2025; Tolulope,

2022). This methodology reduced sampling bias and facilitated a comprehensive examination of food security

drivers and coping mechanisms.

Data collection

Well-structured questionnaires were used to gather socio-economic data, food consumption and expenditure

information, HFIAS responses, and coping techniques.

Analytical Framework

Socio economic Characteristics of the Respondents: Descriptive statistics include means, standard

deviations, percentages, and frequency distributions. But for this study, frequency distribution was used to

describe the socioeconomic characteristics of respondents.

Food Security Status: The Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), created by the Food and

Nutrition Technical Assistance (FANTA) Project (Coates et al., 2007), was utilized to evaluate the food

security status of households in the study area. The HFIAS serves as a standardized, experience-based indicator

that reflects perceptions and behaviors related to inadequate food access due to resource limitations over the

preceding four weeks (30 days). This tool comprises nine occurrence questions, each addressing increasingly

severe levels of food insecurity, ranging from anxiety regarding food supply to actual food deprivation.

Households indicate whether each situation occurred and, if so, the frequency of occurrence which could be

rarely (once or twice), sometimes (three to ten times) or often (more than ten times). Responses are assigned

frequency scores of 0 = never, 1 = rarely, 2 = sometimes and 3 = often. The total HFIAS score for each

household is calculated as follows:

HFAIS











Where:

HFIAS

= total score for household i

= frequency score for question j

The HFIAS score varies from 0 to 27, with 0 denoting complete food security and 27 signifying severe food

insecurity. In accordance with FANTA guidelines (Coates et al., 2007) and prior studies conducted in Nigeria

(Olagunju et al., 2021; Adio et al., 2025), households were classified into four levels of food security based on

their HFIAS scores and responses.

1. Food Secure: Rarely experience food access problems or anxiety.

2. Mildly Food Insecure: Occasionally worry about food and reduce preferred food types.

3. Moderately Food Insecure: Frequently compromise food quality and quantity.

4. Severely Food Insecure: Often experience hunger and food deprivation.

This classification illustrates the frequency and intensity of food insecurity experiences, offering a

comprehensive view of household vulnerability to food access issues. The HFIAS approach is well-suited for

urban areas such as Osogbo, Ile-Ife, and Ilesa, where food access primarily relies on market purchases. In these

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contexts, households encounter increasing food prices that directly affect consumption patterns and dietary

quality (Christofides & Baldwin-Ragaven, 2024; Iheme, 2020). Consequently, HFIAS was employed to

categorize households into food secure, mildly food insecure, moderately food insecure, or severely food

insecure (Christofides & Baldwin-Ragaven, 2024; Iheme, 2020).

Determinants of Food Security: Multinomial logistic regression was employed. Household food security in

this study is a categorical variable with multiple unordered outcomes (food secure, mildly insecure, moderately

insecure, severely insecure); therefore, the suitable modeling approach is multinomial logistic regression

(MLR). MLR calculates the likelihood of a household being classified in each category in relation to a

reference category, which in this case is "food secure." In contrast to binary logistic regression, which

addresses two outcomes, multiple logistic regression (MLR) is capable of simultaneously modeling three or

more non-ordinal outcomes.

The general model is specified as:

ln (

󰇛󰇜

󰇛󰇜

󰇜 = β

+ β

+ ….+ β

+ ε

Where:

= Household food security status;

j = outcome category (1 = mildly insecure, 2 = moderately insecure, 3 = severely insecure)

0 = reference category (food secure)

= explanatory variables (income, education, household size, dependency ratio, food expenditure share, price

perception)

= coefficients to be estimated

= random error term

The coefficients β

indicate the variation in the log odds of belonging to category j compared to the reference

category for a one-unit alteration in the predictor variable. Positive coefficients suggest an increased

probability of belonging to category j in comparison to the reference, whereas negative coefficients imply a

decreased probability. The model posits the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA), indicating that the

likelihood of selecting one category relative to the reference is unaffected by the presence of other available

categories. MLR facilitates the identification of significant socio-economic and demographic factors

influencing household food insecurity. For instance, it demonstrates that higher income and education levels

decrease the probability of food insecurity, while larger household sizes and elevated dependency ratios

heighten vulnerability. This facilitates the prediction of probabilities for each food security status, thereby

informing policy and targeted interventions.

Table 1: Variables and Expected Signs:

Variable

Definition

Expected Sign

Household income

Monthly income (₦)

Education level

Years of schooling

Household size

Number of persons

–

Dependency ratio

Dependents and working adults

–

Food expenditure share

% of income spent on food

–

Price inflation perception

1 = perceives price rise, 0 = does not

–

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Coping Strategy Analysis: The Coping Strategy Index (CSI) was utilized. The Coping Strategy Index (CSI) is

a quantitative instrument utilized to assess household responses to food insecurity through the adoption of

diverse coping mechanisms. This analysis encompasses the frequency and severity of strategies utilized by

households to address food access shortfalls. Each coping strategy is given a severity weight that indicates its

potential adverse effects on household nutrition and well-being. For instance, decreasing meal portions or

omitting meals has a greater impact than getting food from relatives or neighbors.

The calculation of the CSI for each household is as follows:

  











Where:

CSIi = Coping Strategy Index for household i

= frequency of adoption of strategy k (for example: never, sometimes, often)

= severity weight of strategy k

n = total number of coping strategies considered

Higher CSI values indicate more frequent use of severe coping strategies, reflecting greater household

vulnerability to food insecurity. Conversely, lower CSI values indicate fewer or less severe coping

strategies.To examine differences in coping behavior across food security statuses, the study employed

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). ANOVA tests whether mean CSI values differ significantly among

households classified as food secure, mildly insecure, moderately insecure, or severely insecure. This allows

identification of whether households in more severe food insecurity categories rely on more frequent or severe

coping strategies compared to those who are food secure (Iheme, 2020; Adio et al., 2025). The CSI analysis

provides critical insight into the adaptive behaviors of urban households under rising food prices, helping

policymakers design interventions that reduce reliance on harmful coping strategies and enhance household

resilience.

Table 2: Definition of Variables

Variable

Definition

Household income

Monthly income (₦)

Education level

Years of schooling

Household size

Number of persons

Dependency ratio

Dependents / working adults

Food expenditure share

% income on food

Price inflation perception

1=perceives price rise, 0=no

Coping Strategy Index

Composite score

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Socio Economic Characteristics of Respondents

Table 4.1 below indicates that a majority of respondents (57.5%) were male, highlighting male predominance

in household decision-making regarding urban food purchases. The average age of 41.6 years suggests that the

majority of household heads are within their productive years, which positively impacts food security via

income generation potential (Iheme, 2020; Olagunju et al., 2021). A majority of respondents (71.7%) were

married, indicating greater household responsibilities and likely increased food expenditure. The average

household size of five individuals corresponds with urban family structures in Southwestern Nigeria,

influencing food demand and the diversity of consumption.

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The education levels among respondents were notably high, with 75% possessing at least secondary education,

indicating a strong awareness of food choices and coping strategies. Trading (37.9%) and civil service (27.5%)

emerged as the predominant occupations, suggesting that a majority of households rely on non-agricultural

income sources.

The average monthly income of ₦118,500 indicates moderate purchasing power; however, households earning

below ₦100,000 are more susceptible to food access difficulties, particularly in the context of increasing food

prices. Income disparities among urban centers are expected to affect differences in food security status, as

discussed in the following sections. The findings align with previous research conducted in Nigeria, which

identified income and education as significant factors influencing urban food security (Christofides & Baldwin-

Ragaven, 2024; Adio et al., 2025).

Table 4.1: Socio-Economic Characteristics of Respondents

Variable

Frequency

Percentage (%)

Mean

Gender

Male

138

57.5

Female

102

42.5

Age (years)

41.6 years

21–30

17.5

31–40

35.0

41–50

28.8

51 and above

18.7

Marital Status

Single

15.8

Married

172

71.7

Widowed/Separated

12.5

Household Size (persons)

5 persons

1–3

19.2

4–6

132

55.0

25.8

Education Level

No formal education

7.5

Primary

17.5

Secondary

36.7

Tertiary

38.3

Primary Occupation

Trading

37.9

Civil Service

27.5

Artisan

20.0

Others (e.g., transport, tailoring)

14.6

Monthly Household Income (₦)

₦118,500

<₦50,000

20.4

₦50,001–₦100,000

32.1

₦100,001–₦150,000

26.3

>₦150,000

21.2

Source: Field Survey (2025)

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Food Security Status of Respondents

Table 4.2 indicates that merely 17.9% of the surveyed urban households were food secure, suggesting that over

four-fifths of households faced varying levels of food insecurity. The majority of respondents (39.6%)

experienced moderate food insecurity, signifying regular trade-offs in both food quality and quantity.

Simultaneously, 16.3% experienced extreme food insecurity, including instances of hunger, meal omission, or

entire days without food, a definitive indication of food access strain resulting from escalating food prices.

This pattern indicates that urban food insecurity is an escalating issue, even within households possessing

relatively consistent income streams. The results validate the conclusions of Olagunju et al., (2021) and Iheme

(2020), indicating that inflation, precarious employment, and reliance on market-purchased food substantially

heighten the risk of food insecurity in Nigerian urban areas. The average HFIAS score (about 11.2) reinforces

the assertion that the majority of urban households in Osun State are facing moderate food insecurity, aligning

with patterns noted in other metropolitan areas of Sub-Saharan Africa (Christofides & Baldwin-Ragaven,

2024). The condition is attributable to the persistent increase in food prices, stagnant household income, and

constrained food production in urban settings. Households have consequently modified their food consumption

habits by replacing less expensive staples for favored options, decreasing portion sizes, or depending on less

nutritious meals – consistent with coping strategies identified in Adio et al., (2025).

The findings indicate that urban households, especially those with lower income, bigger family sizes, or

restricted access to varied livelihoods, are becoming more susceptible to market shocks. Addressing urban food

insecurity necessitates specific measures, including social protection programs, the promotion of urban

agriculture, and market stabilization policies to shield households from price fluctuation.

Table 4.2: Distribution of Respondents by Food Security Status

Food Security Category

Frequency

Percentage (%)

Mean HFIAS Score

Food Secure

17.9

3.4

Mildly Food Insecure

26.2

7.8

Moderately Food Insecure

39.6

13.9

Severely Food Insecure

16.3

19.6

Total

240

100.0

Source: Field Survey, 2025 (HFIAS Scoring Framework by Coates et al., 2007)

Determinants of Food Security

The Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) model was employed to ascertain the determinants affecting the

probability of households classified inside each food security category, that is mildly, moderately, or severely

food insecured in comparison to the reference group which is food secured. The explanatory variables

comprised age, education, household size, income, dependency ratio, occupation, and food spending

proportion. The findings from the multinomial logistic regression revealed that several socio-economic

determinants substantially affect household food security status in the metropolitan areas of Osun State.

Education Level revealed that education exerted a negative and significant impact on all types of food

insecurity. Households with higher levels of education exhibited a reduced likelihood of encountering food

insecurity. Educated household heads are more inclined to possess stable employment, enhanced nutritional

knowledge, and superior financial management abilities (Olagunju et al., 2021; Iheme, 2020).

The size of the household had a positive and substantial correlation with all degrees of food insecurity. More

extensive households typically encounter heightened food consumption requirements, frequently exceeding

income capabilities, especially amid escalating food prices. This corresponds with the findings of Adio et al.,

(2025), which indicated that large urban households experience more food insecurity due to elevated reliance

burdens.

Monthly Income served as a significant negative predictor of food insecurity across all categories, indicating

that households with higher incomes exhibit greater food security. The marginal effect of income suggests that

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even minor increases in earnings can substantially decrease the likelihood of food insecurity, in accordance

with Christofides and Baldwin-Ragaven (2024). A higher reliance ratio elevated the probability of food

insecurity, especially within the seriously insecure classification. Households with a greater number of non-

working dependents allocate a bigger proportion of their income to essential needs, resulting in diminished

funds for food acquisitions and savings.

The share of total expenditure allocated to food exerted a favorable and significant impact on food insecurity.

Households dedicating a significant portion of their income to food had greater vulnerability, indicating

restricted financial resilience and susceptibility to fluctuations in food prices. Occupation of the respondents

showed that individuals employed in formal sector positions exhibited a markedly lower likelihood of

experiencing food insecurity in contrast to those involved in informal occupations such as trading or artisanal

employment. Formal employment generally provides more economic stability and access to social benefits.

Access to credit correlates with reduced food insecurity among households, suggesting that credit enables

prompt food acquisitions and stabilizes consumption amid price fluctuations. This conclusion is corroborated

by Olagunju et al., (2021), who highlighted credit as a crucial safeguard against temporary food shortages.

The model's Pseudo R² of 0.284 indicates that the variables accounted for approximately 28% of the variation

in household food security status, demonstrating robustness for cross-sectional data. The substantial likelihood

ratio (χ² = 87.29, p < 0.01) validates the combined explanatory capacity of the predictors.

Rising food prices have uneven effects on urban households in Nigeria, especially in vulnerable areas like

Osun State, where both economic and nutritional risks intensify. The findings show that education, income,

household size, and dependency ratio strongly shape how families cope with food inflation. Low-income and

less-educated households are most at risk, as they spend a high share of income on food and are highly

sensitive to price spikes. When costs rise, they reduce meal frequency, switch to cheaper foods like garri, and

skip nutritious items strategies that protect short-term survival but increase long-term health risks, especially

for children. Middle-income households rely more on financial coping methods such as borrowing, buying

food on credit, or depleting savings to smooth consumption. While these strategies delay hunger, they heighten

indebtedness and reduce future resilience. Households with formal employment are better protected due to

stable incomes. Rather than cutting meals, they adjust budgets, buy in bulk, or substitute food items without

compromising nutrition. Such non-erosive coping highlights the protective role of income stability. Large

households and those with many dependents face compounded pressures, often rationing food or withdrawing

children from school. Broader structural issues like urban inflation, weak supply chains, and poor infrastructure

all intensify vulnerability and limit coping options for the poorest.

Table 4.3: Determinants of Food Security status of the Respondents

Variables

Mildly Insecure

(β / SE)

Moderately

Insecure (β / SE)

Severely Insecure

(β / SE)

Constant

-1.254

(0.822)

-2.013**

(0.734)

-3.426***

(0.912)

Age of Household Head (years)

-0.012

(0.018)

-0.021

(0.015)

-0.033**

(0.016)

Education Level (years)

-0.084**

(0.037)

-0.106***

(0.035)

-0.142***

(0.043)

Household Size

0.153**

(0.068)

0.247***

(0.071)

0.385***

(0.095)

Monthly Income (₦)

-0.000012***

(0.000004)

-0.000018***

(0.000005)

-0.000025***

(0.000007)

Dependency Ratio

0.214*

(0.112)

0.295**

(0.123)

0.411***

(0.138)

Food Expenditure Share (%)

0.041**

(0.019)

0.056***

(0.017)

0.084***

(0.023)

Occupation

-0.493*

-0.718**

-1.021***

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(1 = formal sector)

(0.277)

(0.288)

(0.341)

Access to Credit

(1 = yes)

-0.562**

(0.242)

-0.803**

(0.261)

-1.186***

(0.318)

Pseudo R²

0.284

Log-Likelihood

-186.54

Likelihood Ratio (χ²)

87.29*

Note: *p < 0.10; **p < 0.05; **p < 0.01

Source: Field Survey Data, 2025

Coping Strategy Analysis of the Respondents

The Coping Strategy Index (CSI) was utilized to evaluate the prevalence and intensity of strategies

implemented by households facing food insecurity. The CSI measures the frequency with which households

adopt specific behaviors to cope with insufficient food access in the four weeks prior to the survey. Each

strategy received a severity weight, based on the methodology of Maxwell and Caldwell (2008) and modified

from Iheme (2020) for application in the Nigerian context. The data presented in Table 4.4 indicated that urban

households in Osogbo, Ile-Ife, and Ilesa predominantly employed two coping strategies: reliance on less

preferred or cheaper foods with mean score of 4.6 and reduction of portion sizes at meals (mean score = 7.6).

The strategies employed are less severe yet widespread, suggesting that numerous households initially address

food insecurity by modifying food quality and quantity prior to engaging in more drastic actions. Severe

strategies, including complete meal skipping for a day (3.6) and begging for food standing at 1.0, were reported

less frequently. However, these behaviors were predominantly observed in households classified as severely

food-insecure according to the HFIAS results. This indicates that households utilize these strategies solely in

instances of severe food insecurity. The mean CSI score of 38.8 reflects a moderate level of coping intensity

among the sample, suggesting that a majority of households faced considerable stress in sustaining food

consumption throughout the study period. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) results as shown in Table 4.5

revealed significant differences (F = 18.52; p < 0.01) in mean CSI scores among food security categories,

suggesting that increased food insecurity correlates with heightened frequency and severity of coping

behaviors. Households with food security exhibited the lowest mean Coping Strategies Index (CSI) at 14.3,

whereas those facing severe food insecurity reported the highest mean at 58.7. This also confirms that

households experiencing higher levels of food insecurity employed more frequent and severe coping

mechanisms (Adio et al., 2025; Iheme, 2020). This highlights the direct correlation between the intensity of

food insecurity and the burden of coping strategies employed.The findings align with those of Olagunju et al.,

(2021), who documented comparable coping behaviors in urban households in South-West Nigeria amid

inflationary shocks. The coping responses indicate immediate adaptive strategies; however, they may lead to

long-term nutritional and welfare implications, particularly when extreme measures like meal skipping or

prioritizing children become habitual. The dependence on informal coping strategies, including food borrowing

and credit purchases, underscores the restricted access to formal social protection systems in the study area.

This emphasizes the necessity for policy interventions aimed at improving food access resilience, such as urban

food subsidy programs, low-interest microcredit schemes, and the enhancement of urban agriculture initiatives.

Table 4.4: Coping Strategy Analysis of the Respondents

Coping Strategy

Severity

Weight

Mean Frequency

(days/week)

Weighted Score

(Mean × Weight)

Rank

Rely on less preferred or cheaper foods

4.6

Reduce portion size at meals

3.8

7.6

Borrow food or rely on help from relatives/friends

2.7

5.4

Restrict consumption by adults for children to eat

2.1

6.3

Reduce number of meals eaten per day

1.9

5.7

Skip meals for a whole day

0.9

3.6

Purchase food on credit

2.9

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Gather wild food or hunt

0.5

1.0

Send household members to eat elsewhere

0.3

0.9

Beg for food or assistance

0.2

0.8

Source: Field Survey Data, 2025

Table 4.5: ANOVA Results Comparing CSI Scores Across Food Security Categories

Food Security Category

Mean CSI Score

Standard Deviation

F-Value

p-Value

Food Secure

14.3

5.7

Mildly Food Insecure

27.8

8.9

Moderately Food Insecure

42.6

11.4

18.52

0.000*

Severely Food Insecure

58.7

14.8

Source: Field Survey Data, 2025

CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

This research analyzed urban household food security and coping mechanisms in Osun State, Nigeria, in the

context of increasing food prices. The results indicated that food insecurity is a significant issue in the urban

areas of Osogbo, Ile-Ife, and Ilesa. Utilizing the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), findings

indicated that merely 17.9% of households were classified as food secure, whereas the majority faced different

levels of food insecurity. The mean HFIAS score reflects moderate food insecurity, primarily influenced by

increasing food prices, low income, and a high reliance on market-purchased food. The multinomial logistic

regression analysis revealed that income, education level, access to credit, household size, and food

expenditure share are significant determinants of food security. Increased income and education improved food

access, whereas larger household size and restricted credit access heightened vulnerability. The results of the

Coping Strategy Index (CSI) indicated that households predominantly employed mild coping strategies,

including the consumption of less expensive foods and the reduction of portion sizes. In contrast, more severe

strategies, such as meal skipping, were prevalent among households experiencing severe food insecurity.

Recommendations

This study proposes the following recommendations to address the identified challenges:

1. Expand social protection programs, such as food vouchers and cash transfers, aimed at vulnerable

urban households.

2. Encourage urban and peri-urban agriculture via community farming initiatives to improve household

food availability.

3. Enhance income diversification and vocational training to stabilize household purchasing power.

4. Facilitate access to microcredit for small businesses and urban agriculture.

5. Improve nutrition education to promote affordable, balanced diets and reduce adverse coping

behaviors.

Implications for Policy

The findings highlight the necessity for cohesive food security policies that integrate economic, social, and

agricultural strategies. Policymakers ought to implement urban food monitoring systems, stabilize food prices,

and promote collaboration between the private and public sectors to improve food availability. Policy

recommendations should align with Nigeria's agricultural and urban development frameworks. In order to

improve the practical applicability of this study for policymakers, it is crucial to incorporate a section on policy

recommendations that is based on Nigeria's current agricultural and urban development frameworks. Increasing

food prices have exacerbated food insecurity in urban households, highlighting the necessity for strategic

interventions that are consistent with national priorities, including the National Food and Nutrition Policy

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(2021–2025), the Agricultural Promotion Policy (APP 2016–2020), the National Poverty Reduction and

Growth Strategy (NPRGS 2021–2030), and the Urban Development Policy Framework. Policies must

prioritize urban agriculture, small-scale food production, and enhanced logistics to reduce supply chain lengths

and stabilize prices. Enhancing social safety nets, including targeted food subsidies and conditional cash

transfers, can assist vulnerable households. Enhancing market information systems would enable households to

respond more effectively to price fluctuations. Investments in climate-smart agriculture, local storage facilities,

and food processing will mitigate post-harvest losses and enhance price stability. Collaboration among federal

agencies, state ministries, local governments, and NGOs is essential for achieving integrated and sustainable

action. Empowering women and youth by providing access to inputs, credit, and training is consistent with the

goals of food security and employment within Nigeria’s development agenda. This approach establishes the

research as a significant resource for governmental entities and development partners aiming to create resilient

and equitable food systems. Establishing sustainable urban food systems will enhance household welfare and

facilitate advancements toward Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger).

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