Global Financial Crisis and Food Price Inflation  
Dr Priya Mariyat, Dr Aelyamma P J  
Associate Professor of Commerce, Maharaja’s College, Ernakulam, Kerala  
Received: 26 November 2025; Accepted: 03 December 2025; Published: 19 December 2025  
ABSTRACT  
The global financial crisis of 2008 triggered widespread economic disruptions, influencing trade, production,  
and price levels across nations. One of the most critical outcomes was the surge in global food prices,  
threatening food security and economic stability, particularly in developing economies like India. This paper  
examines the interconnection between the financial crisis and food price inflation, analyses their impact on  
India’s macroeconomic framework, and evaluates policy measures that insulated the Indian economy. Using  
secondary data from the FAO, RBI, and MOSPI, the study identifies the trends, causes, and consequences of  
price fluctuations and provides policy recommendations to mitigate similar future shocks.  
Keywords: Global Financial Crisis, Food Inflation, India, Food Security, Economic Policy  
INTRODUCTION  
Global Financial Crisis  
The third quarter of 2008, the collapse of the U.S. housing market escalated into a global financial crisis with  
far-reaching effects. The failure of major financial institutions and liquidity shortages severely impacted global  
trade and investment flows. Concurrently, food prices rose steeply due to both structural and cyclical factors.  
These developments together shaped the global economic landscape, posing serious implications for  
developing economies.  
India experienced indirect effects through capital flow disruptions, reduced liquidity, and slowing growth.  
Despite these challenges, timely interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government helped  
cushion domestic markets from the full brunt of global volatility.  
Financial Crisis in India  
The global financial crisis has impact on India indirectly in terms of liquidity problems and lower economic  
growth. Developments, on both international and domestic fronts, particularly from mid-September 2008, have  
impacted domestic liquidity conditions. The bankruptcy/sell out/ restructuring of some of the world's largest  
financial institutions beginning mid-September 2008 brought some pressures on the domestic money and  
foreign exchange markets. The global financial environment deteriorated with the number of troubled financial  
institutions rising, stock markets weakening and the money markets coming under stress. Central banks in  
several major advanced and emerging market economies responded to these extraordinary developments by  
synchronized policy actions, including measures for liquidity infusion. The RBI has acted swiftly to augment  
liquidity in the system by reducing CRR, SLR and the Repo rate. These measures started in September, 2008  
and are still continuing. The global financial crisis had significant impact on economic growth, employment  
and food security of poor in India.  
The global food, oil and financial crisis have affected India also. The impact is much lower than some of the  
other countries. The food prices in recent years have been higher than those in the period mid-1990s to 2004.  
The volatility in food prices is likely to continue and would harm the poor. Even before the food crisis, the  
poor and vulnerable were significantly left behind. Rising food prices would further undermine the food  
security and livelihoods of the most vulnerable by eroding their already limited purchasing power. Poor people  
Page 938  
spend 60 to 70 per cent of their income on food and they have little capacity to adapt as prices rise and wages  
may not adjust accordingly. Thus, the situation in India can still pose a threat to food and nutrition security of  
the country. Apart from the problem of rise in food prices, India is also facing the adverse impact of global  
financial crisis since the 3rd quarter of 2008. The sub-prime mortgage lending and collapse of housing market,  
flawed regulatory systems have affected the financial institutions around the world.  
The causes for the rise in food prices and financial crisis are different. They are interconnected through their  
implications on financial stability, food security and political security. At the global level, the capital was  
diverted from the collapsing housing market to speculation in agricultural futures. Speculative activities were  
partly responsible for the rise in global food prices. The food crisis increased general inflation and impact on  
macro economic policies. Similarly, the financial crisis can have impact on employment, poverty, agriculture  
investment and social sector expenditures. Therefore, both food and financial crisis may have adverse impact  
on food and nutritional security of India and undermine the poverty reduction efforts and the gains over the last  
several years, if large sections of the population do not cope with rise in prices and financial crisis. These two  
crises can potentially further exacerbate and deepen existing vulnerabilities in India. Inflation in India averaged  
5.90 percent from 2012 until 2025, reaching an all time hick of 14.72 percent in November of 2013 and a  
record low of -2.65 percent in December of 2018.  
Factors Affecting food prices are slowing agricultural production, continued increase in food demand, shift in  
food demand, protective government policies, depreciation of US dollar, rise in energy prices, financial market  
activities, increase in food grain production, reduction in import duties, imposition of bans, procurement,  
storage and distribution policies.  
The growth of the bio fuel market Reasons for the lower rise in Food Prices in India. The policy stance was to  
attempt insulation of domestic prices from the high world prices by combining different measures including  
high subsidies, lower tariffs and export restrictions. Global increase in oil and fertilizer prices. Indian subsidies  
on Oil and fertilizer subsidies have insulated the global transmission of prices. Only small part of diesel prices  
was passed on to farmers and consumers. There was 16% increase in food grain production over three years  
from 2004-05 to 2007-08. Large scale imports were mainly in case of edible oils and to some extent in pulses.  
Wheat was also imported in 2006-07 and 2007-08. Simultaneously India was exporting rice varying from 3 to  
million tonnes per year till 2007-08. Import Duties for wheat, pulses and edible oils were either reduced or  
permitted at zero duty. There was a ban on export of rice, wheat, edible oil and pulses. Ban was imposed on  
futures trading in eight commodities viz., rice, wheat, pulses, potato, rubber and soy oil. Food stock limits were  
imposed under Essential Commodities Act from August 2006. State Governments have been given powers to  
take effective action on hoarding of food stocks. Policy of procurement, buffer stock and public distribution  
also made impact on insulating from global prices. In order to give incentives, Government increased the  
minimum support prices (MSP) significantly in recent years.  
Objectives of the study  
1. To compare the trends of global and Indian food prices during the period of the global financial crisis.  
2. To identify the policy measures adopted to insulate the Indian economy from global food price  
inflation.  
METHODOLOGY  
The study relies entirely on secondary data sources such as FAO statistics, RBI bulletins, the Ministry of  
Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), and published economic literature. A comparative trend  
analysis is used to evaluate food price movements globally and in India from 20052011.  
Trends in Food Prices Global and Indian  
There have been three patterns in the trends in food prices in India as compared to global food prices.  
Page 939  
First pattern - During 2005-06 to2006-07 inflation in food prices increased globally and in India also. The  
rate of increase was much lower in India.  
Second pattern - During 2007-08 as compared to 2006-07 inflation in food prices in India declined, while  
global prices rose significantly.  
Third pattern- Indian inflation in food prices started increasing in third quarter of 2008.  
These patterns show that global impact on India is limited because of less exposure. FAO food price index  
indicates that it increased more than 80 per cent during the period 2005-2008.The wholesale price index in  
India for food articles (food grains +non food grains) Increased 21 per cent over this period Cereal prices in  
India rose only 20 per cent as compared to 170 per cent increase of global prices during2005-08. Similarly,  
Indian wheat prices rose only 21 per cent as compared to 170 per cent at global level). Rice prices in India  
increased only 16 per cent as compared to 230 per cent of global price increases during 2005-08. In the case of  
India; increase in food prices was higher in 2006-07 as compared to 2007-08. The inflation of food grains,  
food articles and wheat in 2006-07 was 10.2%, 7.8% and 13% respectively. As compared to this, inflation in  
the same commodities in 2007-08 was 4.7%, 5.5% and 4.3% respectively. Trends in food prices as given in  
table below.  
Table 1 Trends in Food Prices (2005-08)  
Commodities  
Cereal  
Global  
150  
Indian  
23  
Wheat  
170  
21  
Rice  
230  
16  
While global prices soared dramatically between 2005 and 2008, India’s food price inflation remained  
significantly lower. FAO indices show an 80% global increase in food prices, whereas India’s Wholesale Price  
Index (WPI) for food articles rose only 21% during the same period.  
Source: Secondary Data  
Figure 1 Trends in Food Prices (2005-08)  
The overall and food price inflation is depicted in the table given below.  
Page 940  
Table 2 Over All and Food Inflation in India  
Commodities  
All  
2006-07  
5.42  
2007-08  
4.66  
2008-09  
8.1  
2009-10  
3.8  
2010-11  
9.6  
Primary  
7.85  
7.61  
11  
12.7  
13.5  
15.3  
2.2  
17.7  
3.7  
Food Products  
Food Articles  
Manufactured food products  
Fuel and Power  
3.22  
4.27  
8.7  
7.78  
7.78  
9.1  
15.6  
5.7  
4.43  
4.97  
6.2  
5.61  
0.93  
11.6  
-2.1  
12.3  
200506 to 200607, Global and Indian food prices increased, though at different rates. 200708: Global  
prices rose sharply, but Indian prices declined slightly. 200809. Indian prices began to rise again, reflecting  
delayed transmission of global trends. This indicates that India’s limited integration with global agricultural  
markets and strong domestic policy mechanisms helped contain inflationary pressures.  
Source: Secondary Data  
Figure-2 Over all Food Inflation in India Observed Patterns  
Suggestions  
The Government needs to put more stress on agriculture through long term investment plan. Increase the  
supply of food materials to bring down the price. Government can release food grains stock available with the  
Food Corporation of India and streamlining and strengthening the Public Distribution System. All these  
measures can be successful only to the extent we can control population growth.  
CONCLUSION  
Reasons for lower food price rise in India are India’s proactive policy measures helped reduce the transmission  
of global price shocks, high fertilizer and oil subsidies cushioned farmers and consumers, reduced or zero  
import duties on essential commodities like wheat, pulses, and edible oils, restrictions on rice, wheat, and  
edible oil exports prevented domestic shortages, strengthened procurement, storage, and distribution  
maintained price stability, food grain production increased by 16% between 200405 and 200708, regular  
revision of Minimum Support Prices encouraged domestic supply.  
Page 941  
The increase in price is a direct result of the balance between supply and demand, the fundamental of  
economics. However, this supply and demand is largely influenced by government policies and market  
activities. These include trade policies, energy policies, national security policies, central bank/treasury  
actions, and financial market activities. As we learned from the recent financial crisis, the world economies are  
very much intertwined. This food crisis underpinned the importance of having coordinated policies both within  
and among nations.  
REFERENCES  
1. UNICEF-Report on Social Policy Programme-January 2009  
2. F A O Statistics  
3. Indian Economy Dutt and Sundharam  
4. R B I bulletin-2005 -2011  
5. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)  
6. Google scholars  
Page 942