INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)

ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XI November 2025

The Impact of Governance and Political Systems on Rural

Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abdukarim Yasin Gureye¹, Bonsa Tamane Tadase², & Mohamed Ahmed³

^{1 , 3}School of Rural Development and Agricultural Innovation, Haramaya University Ethiopia

²Oromia Bureau of Finance, Ethiopia

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.91100354

Received: 27 November 2025; Accepted: 04 December 2025; Published: 11 December 2025

ABSTRACT

Rural electrification remains uneven across Sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting persistent institutional and political

challenges. This study evaluates how governance quality and political systems shape rural electricity access in

six countries representing both federal and unitary regimes over the period 2003–2022. Using panel data from

the World Bank, the analysis applies descriptive statistics, group comparison tests, and multiple regression

models to assess the influence of governance indicators and structural factors. The results show that federal

countries exhibit higher rural electrification levels than unitary states, and that control of corruption and rule of

law are significant predictors of access. A large rural population share strongly reduces access, underscoring

enduring structural constraints. The findings demonstrate that governance quality is central to electrification

performance and that institutional reforms, strengthened administrative capacity, and context-specific strategies

are essential for advancing progress toward universal energy access.

Key word: Control of corruption, Federal systems, rule of law, rural electrification, Sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

Access to electricity is a cornerstone of modern economic development and human well-being, enabling

improvements in health, education, and economic opportunity (Gaye, 2007). Recognizing its transformative

potential, universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy is enshrined as a central target of the United

Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 7 and is a key pillar of the African Union's Agenda 2063. Globally,

electricity access has risen to 91%, signaling significant progress (World Bank, 2024). However, this progress

is uneven, and Sub-Saharan Africa remains the least electrified region in the world. Despite consistent growth,

increasing from 25.7% in 2000 to 51.59% in 2022, SSA's access rate falls drastically short of the global average

and lags behind other regions (World Bank, 2024). This deficit is most acute in rural areas, where the majority

of the SSA population resides and where pervasive energy poverty entrenches cycles of deprivation (Nalule,

2018).

The challenge of rural electrification in SSA is not only a technical or financial issue but is deeply intertwined

with governance and political structures. A 2024 World Bank report underscores the increasing difficulty of

achieving the 2030 SDGs, noting that over a third of targets are stalled or regressing. While 685 million people

globally lacked electricity in 2022, projections indicate that 660 million will remain without access by 2030, a

majority of whom will be in rural SSA (World Bank, 2024). Stark disparities exist between countries; for

instance, rural access ranges from near-universal in Mauritius to a mere 1.3% in Chad (World Bank, 2022). This

variation suggests that underlying governance failures including corruption, institutional ineffectiveness, and

political instability are significant impediments to closing the rural electrification gap (Rahman, et al., 2013;

Boamah, et al., 2021; Calderon, et al., 2018). Consequently, the central problem is that poor governance and

^{1 ,}abdiyasing15@gmail.com

²bonsatamane123@gmail.com

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)

ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XI November 2025

unsuitable political frameworks are hindering the effective implementation of electrification policies and the

equitable allocation of resources, thereby perpetuating energy injustice in rural SSA.

While scholarly work has identified the importance of economic growth (David, 2011) and technological

innovation (Mohsin, et al., 2022) in expanding energy access, critical gaps remain in the SSA context. Previous

studies often examine governance in broad terms, leaving a gap in understanding the specific mechanisms

through which discrete governance indicators such as control of corruption, and rule of law directly influence

rural electrification outcomes.

The role of a country's political architecture (e.g., federal versus unitary systems) in shaping electrification

strategies and their effectiveness is underexplored in comparative African studies. The distinct challenges of

coordination in federal systems (e.g., Nigeria) versus the centralized planning of unitary states (e.g., Rwanda)

require further investigation (Bardhan & Mookherjee, 2006; Blimpo & Cosgrove-Davies, 2019). Much of the

extant literature on electrification has focused on Asia (e.g., Palit & Bandyopadhyay, 2016; Sovacool, 2010) or

on single-country case studies (e.g., Gebremeskel, et al., 2021; Wambui, et al., 2022; Ayodele, et al., 2021).

There is a scarcity of multi-country, comparative analyses within SSA that simultaneously account for

governance and political system variables. This study addresses this gap collected and analyzed data of SSA

countries sourced from international organization, begin with some controversial research questions such as

. What is the overall trend of rural electricity access in SSA?

. Does access to rural electricity vary between federal and unitary Political systems in SSA?

. Does access to rural electricity vary between countries in SSA?

. To what extent do Governance indicators affect access to rural electricity in SSA?

To address the research question, this study analyzed data 6 Sub-Saharan African countries, collected from the

World Bank database. By pursuing these research questions, this research contributes to a more sophisticated

understanding of the political economy of energy access, ultimately seeking to inform strategies that can fulfill

the promise of SDG for the most underserved populations in Sub-Saharan Africa.

This paper is set out as follows: the two following sections respectively provide the literature and hypothesis,

and methodology. Section four provides analytical discussions on the empirical results. Finally, in fifth section

offers conclusions, implications and limitations.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Rural electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa has long been shaped by the interplay between governance structures,

institutional quality, and political systems. A substantial body of research shows that electricity access is not

determined solely by technical capacity or financial investment, but by the broader governance environment

within which energy policies are formulated and executed. Countries across the region display significant

disparities in rural access, and these differences often reflect variations in institutional performance,

administrative systems, and political organization.

A central theme in the literature concerns the influence of political systems on infrastructure delivery. Studies

comparing federal and unitary governments highlight that decentralization can support more responsive

decision-making and localized solutions, particularly when regional authorities possess adequate administrative

capacity (Cerniglia, 2003). Federal countries such as South Africa have demonstrated how subnational autonomy

can facilitate tailored electrification programs, whereas others, such as Nigeria, face persistent coordination

challenges linked to overlapping responsibilities and weak institutional coherence (Field, 2021). Conversely,

unitary states can benefit from centralized planning and unified national strategies, yet their effectiveness

depends heavily on institutional strength, policy discipline, and consistent political commitment. Mauritius

provides an example of successful centralized expansion of access, while countries with weaker administrative

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)

ISSN No. 2454-6186 | DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS | Volume IX Issue XI November 2025

systems, such as Chad or Burundi, struggle to translate national plans into effective implementation

(Somanathan, et al., 2014).

Alongside political structures, governance quality emerges as a primary determinant of infrastructure outcomes.

Rhodes (1996) conceptualizes governance as networked coordination among state and non‑state actors

“governing without government” emphasizing interorganizational networks and collaborative policy delivery.

North’s institutional framework (1990) is foundational for governance scholarship, highlighting how formal

rules, informal norms, institutional integrity, predictability, and administrative capacity shape incentives for

investment and the effective provision of public goods such as rural electrification. Ostrom (1990) advances the

concept of polycentric governance, demonstrating how multiple, overlapping authorities and locally embedded

institutions can manage common resources and service delivery more adaptively. Governance theory emphasizes

that institutional integrity, predictability, and administrative effectiveness form the foundation for successful

public service delivery.

Empirical studies consistently show that corruption undermines infrastructure development by inflating project

costs, distorting procurement, reducing maintenance quality, and weakening investor confidence (Adindu, et al.,

2020; Ghahari, et al., 2024; Idris, & Salisu, 2016). In the energy sector specifically, corruption is linked to

electricity theft, underinvestment, and incomplete project execution, which disproportionately affect rural areas

where service provision is already more costly and logistically challenging.

Rule of law is also highlighted as crucial components of effective electrification efforts. A strong legal

framework supports contract enforcement, lowers investment risk, and promotes long-term private sector

participation (Wisniewski, et al., 2024; Mahmood, et al., 2021). Countries with predictable legal systems and

transparent regulatory processes tend to attract more financing for grid expansion and off-grid solutions. At the

same time, effective regulation helps build trust between service providers and consumers, promoting cost

recovery and system sustainability (Hajilee and Himarios 2013). These institutional features are widely

recognized as necessary conditions for scaling rural electrification programs.

Political stability further contributes to a favorable environment for infrastructure development. Although the

magnitude of its impact varies across contexts, the literature shows that stability supports policy continuity and

lowers investment risk, while instability disrupts service delivery, diverts public resources, and delays long-term

planning (Baker, et al., 2019). For electrification an investment-intensive sector requiring multi-year

commitments predictable political conditions are particularly important.

Conceptual framework and hypotheses

Despite the growing body of research, comparative studies linking multiple dimensions of governance with

political system types in Sub-Saharan Africa remain limited. Consequently, the precise mechanisms through

which political structures and institutional performance jointly shape rural electrification outcomes are

underexplored at a regional level. This study addresses this gap by integrating robust governance theory with

empirical evidence spanning two decades across multiple Sub-Saharan African countries.

Figure 1 Conceptual framework

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)

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The conceptual framework posits that rural electrification is fundamentally determined by the interplay between

a country's political system (unitary vs. federal structure) and the quality of governance. The political structure

provides the foundational architecture, influencing the complexity of policy implementation, while effective

governance (characterized by integrity, predictability, and stable institutions) directly facilitates electrification

through efficient resource allocation and sustained investment. Conversely, a large rural population share is

posited as a structural constraint. This integrated model theorizes that superior electrification outcomes are

achieved when a conducive political structure is reinforced by high-quality governance, collectively mitigating

demographic and economic challenges. The following hypotheses formalize these proposed relationships.

H1: Rural electricity access significantly differs between federal and unitary political systems in SSA.

H2: Rural electricity access significantly differs across SSAn countries.

H3: Higher levels of control of corruption are positively associated with rural electricity access.

H4: Higher levels of rule of law are positively associated with rural electricity access.

H5: Higher levels of political stability are positively associated with rural electricity access.

H6: Higher levels of voice and accountability are positively associated with rural electricity access.

H7: GDP growth is positively associated with rural electricity access.

H8: Inflation is negatively associated with rural electricity access.

H9: Rural population share is negatively associated with rural electricity access.

RESEARCH CONTEXT AND METHODOLOGY

Research context

Electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa is a complex issue shaped by economic development, political

governance, and geographic disparities. Governance, GDP growth, and variations in political systems

significantly influence electrification policies and outcomes. Marked differences exist between countries; for

example, in 2003, Nigeria experienced a GDP growth rate of 7.35% and a GDP per capita of $763.39, while

Ethiopia had negative GDP growth of -2.16% and a GDP per capita of $116.80. Further, variations in political

systems, such as Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa operating as federal republics, impact the development and

implementation of electrification policies at regional and local levels. Given the predominantly rural population

in Sub-Saharan Africa, this research specifically examines the rural electricity access. Data on rural

electrification rates and population percentages are analyzed. For example, Ethiopia's rural electrification rate

was only 1.4% in 2003, serving a rural population of 84.69%. By 2022, Ethiopia had significantly improved to

43%. In contrast, South Africa had a rural electrification rate of 66.3% in 2003, reaching 93.4% in 2022,

demonstrating a smaller access gap. Analyzing changes in access over time, in countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya,

and Nigeria, helps highlight the diverse pathways and rates of electrification across the region. The results

provide crucial information for identifying the factors driving successful electrification strategies and promoting

equitable access to electricity for all.

Research methodology

This study used a mixed-methods, explanatory and descriptive design, employing quantitative analysis of World

Bank panel data to analyze electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa. Descriptive statistics were used to

characterize and summarize electricity access and inferential analysis explored relationships between

governance, economics, and electricity access. Using a stratified sample of six countries selected from two

political regime types: federal republics (South Africa, Ethiopia, Nigeria) and unitary states (Kenya, Uganda,

Zimbabwe), based on availability of data. This approach ensures representation of diverse governance structures

within the region's broader population of countries.

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN SOCIAL SCIENCE (IJRISS)

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Figure 2 Map of the study area

This study utilizes secondary data obtained from the World Bank. Electricity access data were sourced directly

from World Bank indicators.²Governance indicators, were obtained from the World Bank's Worldwide

Governance Indicators³. Control variables, were sourced from the World Bank's World Development Indicators².

Data were collected for the years 2003-2022 and compiled into a panel dataset, with each observation representing

a specific country-yea. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS. Descriptive statistics, including trends and

percentages, were used to summarize the data. Inferential statistics were then employed: t-tests and ANOVA were

used for group comparisons, and regression models were used to analyze the relationships between electricity

access, governance indicators, and economic factors.

Table 1. Summary of Variables and Measurements

Variable Category

Dependent

Variable Name & Code

Rural Electricity Access

Voice & Accountability

Political Stability

Measurement

% of rural population

Units on a scale from -2.5 to +2.5

Independent

Rule of Law

Control of Corruption

Economic Development

Economic Growth

Inflation

Control

GDP per capita (current US$)

GDP growth (annual %)

Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)

Rural population (% of total population)

Demographic Structure

2

https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators/Type/TABLE/preview/on

³https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators

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RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Descriptive analysis

Trend analysis

Analysis of rural electricity access from 2003 to 2022 reveals that South Africa consistently maintains the highest

access rates. However, while Kenya exhibits notable gains and the largest overall percentage gain (increasing

from 6.9% to 65%), especially after 2014, Ethiopia demonstrated the most significant overall increase in

percentage points (41.6). Zimbabwe experienced a steady increase initially but has since declined in recent years,

and Nigeria had a reduction at -5.7% (32.7%, 2003 to 27%, 2022) Uganda and Zimbabwe generally experience

lower levels, and Ethiopia and Nigeria, while starting low, exhibit steady growth. Overall, the combined data

suggests a positive trajectory in rural electrification across the analyzed countries (Trend 1).

Depicting governance indicator scores (using the WGI scale of -2.5 to 2.5) from 2003-2022, trends 2-7 reveal

that most countries' scores fluctuate within a narrow range over time. South Africa generally scores higher than

others across most governance indicators, though a decline is observed in recent years. In contrast, Ethiopia,

Uganda, and Zimbabwe generally have lower scores compared to Kenya and Nigeria.

Population trends (Trend 8) from 2003-2021 show a consistent increase across all countries, with Nigeria

exhibiting a significantly larger and more rapidly growing population. GDP trends (Trend 9) reveal a generally

positive trajectory but fluctuating growth, with South Africa consistently maintaining the highest GDP among

the countries analyzed.

Trend 1-9; Trend analysis

Trend 1 Access to electricity, rural (% of rural population)

Trend 7 Voice and Accountability

Trend 6 Political Stability

Ethiopia

Kenya

Nigeria

150000000

100000000

50000000

0

Ethiopia

Kenya

Nigeria

10000

5000

0

2003200520072009201120132015201720192021

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Trend 9 GDP

Trend 8 Population

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Descriptive Statistics

The descriptive statistics indicate that the governance indicators (Control of Corruption, Rule of Law, Political

Stability, and Voice and Accountability) have negative mean values (Table 1). GDP per capital exhibits a mean

of 2043.9274, while Inflation has a mean of 21.2486 and rural population has a large mean of 44322658.1167.

Access to electricity in rural areas has a mean of 31.84, In 2003, South Africa had the highest rural electricity

access (66.3%), while Ethiopia had the lowest (1.4%). By 2022, South Africa remained highest (93.4%) Table

2.

Table 2 Descriptive Statistics

.

Minimum

-1.43

Maximum

.48

Mean

Std. Deviation

.46811

Control of Corruption

Rule of Law

-.8211

-1.87

.18

-.7287

.53068

Political Stability

Voice and Accountability

Access to electricity, rural

GDP per capital

-2.21

.22

-1.1321

-.5695

.59605

-1.67

.78

.67815

.60

95.50

8646.06

604.95

103718305

31.84

25.52

116.80

-2.02

2043.93

21.25

2153.72

65.87

Inflation

Rural population

8014740

44322658.12

32553728.40

Group comparison tests

Access to electricity Variation Between countries

The ANOVA results (F(5, 114) = 76.756, p < 0.001) indicate a statistically significant difference in rural

electricity access between the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa included in the analysis. This supports the

hypothesis that access to electricity in rural areas significantly varies between these countries, the hypothesis is

accepted.

Table 1 Variation Between countries.

Sum of Squares

59740.286

17745.527

77485.

Df

5

Mean Square

11948.057

155.663

F

Sig.

Between Groups

Within Groups

Total

76.756

.000

114

119

Access to Electricity Variation between Regime

The statistical analysis reveals a significant difference in rural electricity access between federal (41.94%) and

unitary (21.73%) regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a significance value of 0.00 and a t-statistic of 4.71. This

supports the hypothesis that access to electricity in rural areas significantly varies between these regime, the

hypothesis is accepted.

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Table 2 Variation between Regimes

Regimes N

Mean

T

Df

Sig. (2-tailed)

.000

Access to electricity, rural Federal

Unitary

60

41.9383

21.7317

4.71

118.00

Multiple Regression Analysis

The analysis utilized a panel dataset of 120 observations (6 countries over 20 years). The mean rural electricity

access rate was 31.84% (±25.52), indicating significant disparities across the sample. The governance indicators

consistently showed negative mean values, aligning with typical scores for many Sub-Saharan African nations

on the -2.5 to 2.5 WGI scale (Kaufmann et al., 2010). A multiple linear regression was conducted to predict rural

electricity access based on seven predictors: six governance indicators and GDP growth. The overall regression

model was statistically significant, F (7, 112) = 66.16, p < .001. The model explained a substantial portion of the

variance in rural electrification, with R² = .805 and Adjusted R² = .793. The results of the regression analysis are

presented in Table 4. Contrary to the previous model, this specification, which substitutes GDP per capita with

GDP growth, reveals a more pronounced and statistically significant role for several governance indicators.

Table 4. Regression Coefficients for Predictors of Rural Electricity Access (Model with GDP Growth).

Predictor

Unstandardized B

111.12

10.62

Std. Error Standardized Beta (β) t-value p-value

VIF

(Constant)

6.76

4.43

0.11

3.49

2.27

0.017

4.67

0.223

16.43

2.40

-7.69

0.63

1.94

2.24

2.23

0.03

<.001

.018

<.001

.530

.055

.027

.028

.973

Control of Corruption

Rural Population Share

Voice and Accountability

Political Stability

Inflation

0.195

-0.556

0.058

0.103

0.098

0.217

0.002

3.80

3.00

4.94

1.62

1.11

5.44

1.28

-0.88

2.19

4.39

0.038

Rule of Law

10.42

GDP Growth

0.008

Source: Authors constructed (spss 2025)

Significant Predictors:

Control of Corruption: This variable was a positive and significant predictor (B = 10.62, β = 0.195, p = .018).

This finding provides strong support for literature, confirming that better control of corruption is associated with

higher rural electricity access. This aligns with theory that corruption diverts public resources, inflates project

costs, and deters investment, thereby crippling infrastructure development. The result suggests that anti-

corruption efforts are directly relevant to achieving electrification goals.

Rule of Law: A strong, positive, and significant relationship was found (B = 10.42, β = 0.217, p = .028). This

provides clear support for literature. A robust rule of law creates a predictable environment for enforcing

contracts and protecting investments, which is crucial for attracting the long-term capital required for energy

infrastructure.

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Rural Population Share: This variable remained a powerfully significant and negative predictor (B = -0.88, β =

-0.556, p < .001). This underscores the immense structural challenge of electrifying countries where a large

proportion of the population lives in dispersed, rural communities, making grid extension economically

challenging.

Inflation: Surprisingly, inflation showed a small but significant positive coefficient (B = 0.038, p = .027). This

counterintuitive result may reflect complex economic conditions or be an artifact of the model specification, as

high inflation is typically detrimental to investment.

Non-Significant and Borderline Predictors:

GDP Growth: Unlike GDP per capita, annual GDP growth was not a significant predictor (p = .973). This

suggests that the level of economic development (wealth stock) is a more critical determinant of rural

electrification infrastructure than short-term economic fluctuations (growth flow).

Political Stability: This variable approached significance (p = .055), hinting that stability may be important, but

its effect is not as clear as that of corruption control or rule of law in this model.

Voice and Accountability: Was not significant (p = .530), suggesting that in this specific context and model,

electoral democracy and civil liberties may have a less direct impact on electrification outcomes than the quality

of institutional enforcement (Rule of Law) and integrity (Control of Corruption).

Discussion

The findings of this study provide clear evidence that governance quality and political structures are central

determinants of rural electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa. Drawing on governance theory, institutional

economics, and empirical literature, the results reinforce the notion that electrification outcomes are shaped not

only by technical and financial variables but also by the broader institutional environment within which energy

policies are designed and implemented.

The analysis confirms substantial variation in rural electricity access across the six Sub-Saharan African

countries examined. This aligns with prior evidence showing that electricity access in SSA remains highly

uneven due to institutional capacity differences, resource allocation priorities, and political commitment (World

Bank 2024). ANOVA results reveal statistically significant structural disparities in governance and policy

implementation. Regarding rural electricity access (2003–2022), South Africa consistently recorded the highest

rates. Kenya made the largest proportional gain (especially post-2014), while Ethiopia saw the biggest absolute

percentage point increase. Zimbabwe showed initial growth but recently declined, remaining low alongside

Uganda. Overall, the region's positive trend is primarily driven by strong gains in Kenya and substantial

improvements in Ethiopia.

The study also finds a significant gap between federal and unitary political regimes. Federal states reported

higher average rural access (41.94 percent) compared with unitary states (21.73 percent). This finding

corresponds with governance theory, which suggests that decentralized structures allow subnational

governments greater autonomy to tailor electrification initiatives to local conditions. However, it also reflects

recent empirical patterns where certain federal systems, such as South Africa, have leveraged stronger

institutions and coordinated policies to advance electrification, while others like Nigeria continue to struggle

with fragmentation (Mettler, & Brown, 2022).

The regression results demonstrate that governance quality is a decisive force shaping rural electricity access.

Three governance indicators control of corruption, rule of law, and political stability emerged as central

predictors, although with varying statistical significance.

Control of corruption shows a positive and significant relationship with rural electricity access. This finding

aligns with theoretical expectations that corruption distorts resource allocation, inflates infrastructure costs,

delays project delivery, and reduces investor confidence (Idris, & Salisu, 2016). Empirical studies similarly show

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that corruption undermines service delivery and infrastructure expansion, particularly in capital-intensive sectors

like electricity (Adindu, et al., 2020). The results suggest that reducing corruption is not merely a governance

aspiration but an operational requirement for achieving SDG 7 in rural Africa.

Rule of law also has a strong and significant positive effect. The result is consistent with institutional economics,

where predictable legal environments encourage long-term investment by reducing regulatory uncertainty

(Wisniewski, et al., 2024; Mahmood, et al., 2021). Countries with stronger rule of law are better positioned to

attract private capital for grid expansion and maintain credible regulatory frameworks that support electrification.

Although political stability did not reach statistical significance at the conventional five percent threshold, its

borderline significance suggests that stability remains a relevant factor shaping infrastructure outcomes. Prior

literature shows that instability deters investment, disrupts public services, and increases operational risks in

infrastructure development (Masry, 2015). The results suggest that while political stability matters, its effect

may be mediated by other governance dimensions such as corruption control.

The governance indicators voice and accountability did not display significant statistical relationships. This does

not necessarily imply their irrelevance; instead, it suggests that electoral participation or regulatory design may

exert more indirect or long-term influences compared with more immediate institutional factors, such as

corruption control and rule of law. Prior research similarly notes that improvements in democratic accountability

often take time to translate into tangible service delivery outcomes.

The strong negative association between rural population share and electricity access confirms long-standing

empirical arguments that dispersed rural populations impose high infrastructure costs and operational challenges

(Xia, et al., 2022). This result highlights structural development constraints that are less amenable to policy

reform alone. It also underscores the importance of off-grid and mini-grid solutions as central strategies for SSA

countries with large rural populations.

GDP growth did not significantly predict electricity access, suggesting that short-term economic performance

does not directly translate into infrastructure expansion. This aligns with findings that income level (wealth

stock) matters more than year-to-year growth volatility when financing electrification (Milin, et al., 2022). The

unexpected positive coefficient for inflation, though statistically significant, reflects macroeconomic

complexities rather than a substantive causal relationship. Inflation is typically detrimental to infrastructure

investment, implying that this result should be interpreted with caution.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This study set out to examine how governance quality and political systems shape rural electrification outcomes

in Sub-Saharan Africa. The findings demonstrate that access to electricity remains uneven across countries in

the region, reflecting structural, institutional, and political differences. Federal countries recorded significantly

higher rural electrification rates than unitary states, suggesting that decentralized governance can support more

responsive and coordinated implementation when institutional capacity is strong. The results indicate that

governance indicators play a central role in determining access outcomes. Control of corruption and rule of law

emerged as strong and significant predictors, highlighting the importance of integrity, transparency, and

predictable legal environments for attracting investment and managing infrastructure development effectively.

Although political stability did not reach full significance, its near-significant effect suggests that stable political

environments continue to facilitate long-term planning and investor confidence.

In contrast, voice and accountability did not show significant empirical influence within the model, implying

that their impact may occur indirectly or over extended periods. The negative association between rural

population share and electricity access reaffirmed the long-standing challenge of electrifying geographically

dispersed communities, where the high cost of grid extension remains a key barrier. The absence of a significant

relationship between GDP growth and access further suggests that short-term economic performance is less

relevant to electrification than deeper structural and institutional conditions.

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Overall, the study confirms that governance is not an auxiliary factor but a foundational element in advancing

rural electrification. Strengthening corruption control mechanisms, improving rule of law, and enhancing

institutional capacity should therefore form integral components of national electrification strategies. Countries

with large rural populations should complement grid extension with decentralized solutions, particularly mini-

grids and off-grid systems. Federal systems may benefit from further strengthening coordination across national

and subnational levels, while unitary states should invest in building strong administrative systems capable of

executing national plans effectively. Integrating governance reforms into sector strategies will improve the

credibility, efficiency, and sustainability of electrification efforts across the region.

Limitations and Future Research

While the study offers meaningful insights, several limitations should be acknowledged. The analysis focused

on six countries, which allows for detailed assessment but limits the broader applicability of the findings to all

Sub-Saharan African states. The reliance on secondary data from World Bank sources means that informal

governance dynamics, local political factors, and context-specific administrative challenges may not be fully

captured. Measurement limitations inherent in perception-based governance indicators may also influence

interpretation of the results. In addition, the quantitative approach used here, while robust, does not provide the

depth of understanding that qualitative or mixed methods research could offer, particularly in explaining why

certain governance systems deliver better electrification outcomes than others.

These limitations create useful avenues for further research. Future studies could expand the sample to include

a wider set of countries and political systems, allowing for broader comparative assessment. Incorporating

qualitative evidence through interviews, case studies, or institutional analyses would help reveal how governance

processes operate in practice and how they influence implementation performance. Further work could also

examine sector-specific governance reforms, such as tariff adjustments, independent regulatory agencies, or

public–private partnership frameworks, and how they shape electrification progress. As off-grid and mini-grid

technologies continue to expand, additional research is needed to understand how governance quality affects

their deployment and sustainability. Finally, long-term political economy analyses could shed light on how

political incentives, regime stability, and leadership dynamics shape investment decisions and policy continuity

in the electricity sector

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