relationship between poverty rates and key explanatory variables such as unemployment rate, human

development index (HDI), and population growth. The results reveal that human development has a significant

negative effect on poverty, indicating that improvements in education, healthcare, and income levels lead to

substantial reductions in poverty levels. Conversely, population growth exhibits a significant positive

relationship with poverty, implying that rapid population expansion exacerbates economic hardship and

resource scarcity. Although unemployment has a positive but statistically insignificant relationship with

poverty, it still contributes to the socioeconomic challenges facing the nation. The findings highlight that

sustainable poverty reduction in Nigeria depends on enhanced human capital development, effective

population management, and improved social and economic policies. Therefore, the study recommends

targeted interventions aimed at promoting inclusive growth, strengthening social welfare systems, and

natural and human resources, the nation continues to grapple with persistent poverty levels that have resisted

decades of policy interventions and economic reforms. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2023) reported

that approximately 133 million Nigerians, representing 63% of the population, are multidimensionally poor,

lacking access to basic needs such as health care, education, clean water, and decent housing. This alarming

figure underscores the urgent need to investigate the socio-economic and demographic factors driving poverty

in Nigeria and to identify sustainable strategies that can mitigate its impact on livelihoods and national

development.

The persistence of poverty in Nigeria is closely linked to structural inequalities, unemployment, corruption,

and weak institutional frameworks. According to Akinbode and Alabi (2022), income inequality, low levels of

industrialization, and dependence on oil revenues have perpetuated economic vulnerability, particularly in rural

infrastructure (United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], 2022). Rural–urban migration, youth

unemployment, gender disparities, and regional inequalities further exacerbate the poverty situation. According

to Olayemi and Ibrahim (2023), households with larger family sizes, lower educational attainment, and female-

headed structures are more likely to experience chronic poverty. These demographic realities highlight the

importance of integrating population management and social inclusion strategies into poverty reduction

policies.

Efforts to alleviate poverty in Nigeria have included initiatives such as the National Poverty Eradication

Programme (NAPEP), the Conditional Cash Transfer scheme, and the National Social Investment

Programmes. However, the outcomes of these interventions have been inconsistent and often limited by poor

coordination, political interference, and weak monitoring mechanisms (Eze & Nwankwo, 2020). Sustainable

employment, education, gender, and household characteristics, the research seeks to provide a comprehensive

understanding of the multidimensional nature of poverty in Nigeria. Ultimately, the findings are expected to

inform policymakers, development agencies, and stakeholders in designing more targeted, inclusive, and

sustainable poverty alleviation strategies.

LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Conceptual Review

Poverty

Poverty is a multidimensional condition characterized by a lack of access to essential resources such as

income, education, healthcare, housing, and social participation necessary for a decent standard of living. It

extends beyond economic deprivation to include social exclusion and the inability to meet basic human needs

objectives will therefore be directed to achieving it (Aluko & Adeniji, 2015), The persistence of poverty in

Nigeria reflects deep structural inequalities and limited access to social services, thereby hindering sustainable

economic growth and human development (Akinbode & Alabi, 2022).

Socio-Economic and Demographic Determinants

Socio-economic and demographic determinants refer to the social, economic, and population-related factors

that influence individuals’ and households’ living standards and vulnerability to poverty. These include income

levels, employment status, education, gender, age, household size, and place of residence (Olayemi & Ibrahim,

2023). Education and employment opportunities are key socio-economic indicators that determine access to

resources and mobility across income levels, while demographic variables such as fertility rate, population

growth, and dependency ratio shape household welfare dynamics (UNDP, 2022). In Nigeria, high

Sustainable Solutions

emphasize human capital development through education and health investments, equitable access to

resources, institutional strengthening, and inclusive governance (United Nations, 2015). According to Eze and

Nwankwo (2020), community-based empowerment, diversification of the economy, and social protection

programs are critical to achieving lasting poverty reduction in Nigeria. Sustainable development frameworks

advocate for participatory approaches that involve local communities in decision-making processes and

resource management to enhance ownership and accountability (Sachs, 2021). By aligning poverty reduction

policies with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 1 “No Poverty” Nigeria can foster

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Human Capital Theory

The Human Capital Theory is highly relevant to this study as it explains how investment in people through

education, skills development, and healthcare can reduce poverty and promote sustainable socio-economic

growth. Proposed by Becker (1964), the theory posits that individuals’ productivity and earning potential

increase when resources are allocated to improve their knowledge, competencies, and health. In the context of

Nigeria, poverty is often linked to low educational attainment, limited vocational skills, and poor health

outcomes that restrict individuals’ capacity to participate productively in the economy (Olayemi & Ibrahim,

and household structure affect income levels and living standards. Thus, sustainable poverty reduction in

Ogunniyi and Ojedokun (2020) examined the determinants of poverty among rural households in Southwest

Nigeria’s economic growth using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique. The results revealed

that the p-values for unemployment, population growth, and government expenditure were 0.0003, 0.0000, and

0.0004 for DUNEMP, DPOP, and DGOVE, respectively, indicating statistical significance for all variables.

The findings confirmed that each variable was stationary, with gross domestic product (GDP) serving as the

dependent variable. Holding other factors constant, both unemployment and population growth exhibited a

negative long-term effect on GDP, suggesting that increases in these variables lead to a decline in economic

performance. The study further found an adjusted speed of 11.5%, showing that a 1% change in population

growth corresponds to an approximate 0.0004% short-term reduction in GDP, while a 1% increase in

unemployment results in a 7% short-term decline in GDP. Additionally, the population growth coefficient

displayed a negative sign contrary to theoretical expectations, highlighting an inverse relationship with

economic growth. Based on these outcomes, the researchers recommended that Nigeria should diversify its

investment in the agricultural sector to enhance commercialization, create job opportunities, and stimulate

economic growth through improved production, distribution, marketing, and customer services.

as an implication for Economic growth in the Nigeria. The study period covered the period of 1990 to 2022.

The study attempt to examine relevant variables such as Internal Revenue Generated, Government Recurrent

Expenditure, Debt Financing, Government Capital Expenditure and Gross Domestic Product. With the

application of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the outcome of study reveals that government

Debt Financing, government capital expenditure and government capital expenditure, Internal Generated

Revenue all have a significant impact on the GDP. Conversely, government recurrent expenditure i.e

governance and administrative cost have an insignificant impact on GDP. The result further showed that public

in Nigeria between 2000 and 2020. Using regression analysis, the authors found a negative relationship

between governance effectiveness and poverty incidence, suggesting that corruption and weak institutions

hinder poverty reduction programs. The study concluded that transparent governance and accountability

mechanisms are essential for the success of social welfare and economic empowerment policies. Their findings

Adebayo and Ojo (2022) on socio-demographic determinants of urban poverty in Lagos State, data were

collected from 400 respondents through structured questionnaires. Results showed that unemployment, low

educational levels, and gender disparities were significant predictors of poverty among urban dwellers.

Female-headed households and those engaged in informal sector jobs were more likely to experience poverty.

The authors suggested targeted interventions in education, gender empowerment, and employment generation

as pathways to sustainable poverty reduction.

Olayemi and Ibrahim (2023) investigated the demographic characteristics influencing household poverty

across Nigeria’s geopolitical zones. Using logistic regression analysis, the study found that family size,

dependency ratio, and rural residency were key determinants of household poverty. Education and employment

status significantly reduced the likelihood of being poor. The researchers emphasized the need for population

often constrained by poor implementation, corruption, and lack of continuity. The study recommended

institutional reforms, stakeholder collaboration, and sustainable financing mechanisms to enhance the long-

term impact of poverty alleviation efforts. These findings align with the argument that sustainable solutions

must address both policy and structural dimensions of poverty.

Magaji, Musa, and Ismail (2025) examined the impact of income inequality on poverty levels in Nigeria using

the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study utilized secondary data sourced from the

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN, 2011) and the World Development Indicators (WDI, 2022). Findings revealed

a persistent positive relationship between poverty levels and the Gini coefficient of income inequality,

highlighting that as income disparity widens, poverty levels increase correspondingly. This association

underscores the structural imbalance in income distribution within the Nigerian economy. The study

poverty. Furthermore, it emphasized the need for the Nigerian government to design and implement more

pragmatic employment policies aimed at fostering inclusive economic participation. Despite existing efforts,

the study found that the reduction of income inequality through employment growth remains insufficient.

Hence, a practical approach to employment generation that enables individuals to move beyond subsistence

living toward wealth accumulation is essential for improving income distribution and achieving sustainable

poverty reduction in Nigeria.

Research Gaps

data and robust econometric techniques such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression within the Nigerian

context. This gap underscores the need for a comprehensive empirical investigation that simultaneously

examines socio-economic and demographic determinants of poverty using contemporary data to provide

evidence-based insights for sustainable poverty alleviation policies.

METHODOLOGY

Research Design

This study adopts a quantitative research design to empirically analyze the socio-economic and demographic

demographic indicators that influence poverty levels between 2010 and 2023. The study relies primarily on

secondary data obtained from reputable national and international institutions to ensure reliability and validity.

Data were collected from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for poverty and unemployment rates, the

World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) for population growth and human development metrics,

the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for macroeconomic indicators, and the National Population Commission

(NPC) for demographic data. The use of secondary data ensures comprehensive coverage and consistency

across years, which is crucial for time-series econometric analysis.

Model Specification

Where:

Multicollinearity: The Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) test was conducted to detect correlations among

independent variables.

residuals is constant across observations.

Autocorrelation: The Durbin-Watson statistic was used to detect serial correlation in residuals.

From Table 4.1, the mean poverty rate (POV) of 61.211 indicates a relatively high level of poverty across the

observed years. The unemployment rate (UMP) has a mean value of 9.0283 and a standard deviation of

1.915819, implying moderate variability and fluctuations in unemployment during the period. The human

development index (HDI) has a mean of 1.4416 with a relatively low standard deviation of 0.146863, showing

that HDI remained relatively stable but low across the years, reflecting slow human development progress in

Nigeria. The population variable (POP) recorded the highest variability with a standard deviation of

Regression Analysis

socio-economic and demographic factors play a substantial role in shaping the country’s poverty dynamics.

The F-statistic value of 10.085, with a probability value of 0.000123, confirms that the overall regression

model is statistically significant at the 5% confidence level. This implies that the independent variables jointly

exert a meaningful influence on poverty, validating the appropriateness of the model specification. It also

highlights the importance of considering these variables when formulating poverty reduction strategies in

Nigeria.

Furthermore, the Durbin-Watson statistic of 1.917 indicates that there is no significant serial correlation among

the residuals, suggesting that the model’s assumptions are not violated and that the estimates are unbiased and

consistent. This reliability of the model enhances the credibility of the results and ensures that the findings can

be used to make sound policy recommendations. The absence of autocorrelation signifies that the variations in

the residuals are random and not systematically related over time, reinforcing the robustness of the regression

analysis. Therefore, the statistical indicators collectively affirm that the model is well-fitted, theoretically

sound, and suitable for assessing the socio-economic and demographic determinants of poverty in Nigeria.

DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS

The regression findings reveal that the unemployment rate (UMP) has a positive but statistically insignificant

study reflects the complex nature of job creation and income generation in Nigeria’s informal economy. It

underscores the need for more inclusive employment policies that address not just job quantity but also job

quality and income adequacy.

In contrast, the human development index (HDI) exhibits a negative and statistically significant relationship

with poverty (β = -4.517, p = 0.0053), implying that improvements in human development significantly reduce

poverty levels. This finding highlights the importance of education, healthcare, and access to income-

generating opportunities in improving living conditions and promoting social mobility. The result supports the

Human Capital Theory, which asserts that investment in people through education, skills acquisition, and

health enhancement improves productivity and income potential, thereby lowering poverty. In the Nigerian

context, this implies that policies aimed at increasing literacy rates, enhancing healthcare accessibility, and

infrastructure and public services increases, deepening economic hardship for vulnerable groups. This outcome

aligns with the Malthusian theory, which warns that unchecked population growth can surpass the capacity of

available resources, leading to widespread poverty and social instability. For Nigeria, this underscores the

urgent need to implement effective population management strategies, promote family planning, and ensure

equitable distribution of resources. Moreover, fostering economic diversification and creating sustainable

livelihoods can help absorb the growing labor force and mitigate the adverse effects of population expansion

on poverty levels.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

The findings of this study highlight that human development plays a critical role in reducing poverty in

Nigeria. The analysis shows that improvements in education, healthcare, and income-generating opportunities

Conversely, the study reveals that population growth has a significant and positive effect on poverty,

suggesting that rapid demographic expansion aggravates economic hardship by straining available resources,