INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue XI November 2025

High-Grade Ore in a Decarbonising World: Simandou, Green Steel

and the Strategic Repositioning of India’s Iron Ore Sector

Dr. Ashokaditya P. Dhurandhar

Orion Geohytech India G-10 Brahmaputra Apartment Aakar Nagar Katol Road Nagpur

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51244/IJRSI.2025.12110142

Received: 02 December 2025; Accepted: 08 December 2025; Published: 19 December 2025

ABSTRACT

The global iron ore market stands at a pivotal inflection point. While long-term steel-intensive infrastructure

growth in emerging economies sustains underlying demand, near-term oversupply from Tier-1 producers and

decelerating Chinese crude-steel output have created a pronounced supply overhang, exerting downward

pressure on benchmark prices. India, the world’s fourth-largest producer, finds itself uniquely positioned:

domestic steel capacity expansion to 500 Mtpa by 2047 will require an additional ~200 Mtpa of iron ore

feedstock by mid-century, yet the sector remains hamstrung by legacy environmental liabilities, sub-optimal

logistics and a historically fragmented governance framework. This paper synthesises the latest authoritative

forecasts on global demand, production and pricing, with a deepened focus on the Simandou project’s

transformative role in high-grade supply dynamics, Brazil’s Carajás mining complex and Australia’s Pilbara

operations as benchmarks for integrated sustainability, before undertaking a critical examination of sustainability

paradigms in Indian iron ore mining, with emphasis on future directional imperatives, quantifiable ESG metrics

and their interplay with global green steel initiatives, including emerging technologies such as hydrogen direct

reduced iron (H-DRI) and molten oxide electrolysis (MOE). Projections extend to 2050, revealing a polycentric

demand surge offset by decarbonisation imperatives that could cap iron ore consumption at ~1.8 Bt despite steel

output exceeding 2.5 Bt. Adopting an interdisciplinary lens that integrates resource economics, environmental

management and strategic corporate governance, the analysis underscores the non-negotiable imperative of

embedding ESG imperatives into core operational DNA if Indian producers are to retain competitive parity in

an increasingly decarbonised global steel value chain.

Keywords: iron ore, seaborne market, supply overhang, sustainability, ESG metrics, Indian mining policy, green

steel initiatives, Simandou project, Carajás mining, Pilbara mining, hydrogen DRI, molten oxide electrolysis,

decarbonisation, net-zero steel

INTRODUCTION

Iron ore remains the foundational feedstock of the global steel industry, which in turn underpins infrastructure,

manufacturing, and urbanisation worldwide. As of December 2025, the interplay of macroeconomic headwinds,

geopolitical reconfiguration of trade flows, and accelerating climate imperatives has rendered the iron ore

complex one of the most volatile and strategically consequential commodity markets.

This article addresses six interrelated research questions: (1) How will global iron ore demand and supply evolve

through 2050? (2) What price trajectories are consistent with emerging fundamentals? (3) To what extent is the

Indian iron ore mining sector institutionally and operationally equipped to meet the twin challenges of volume

growth and decarbonisation? (4) How does the Simandou project exemplify the integration of high-grade ore

supply with low-carbon steelmaking imperatives, including ESG metrics? (5) What lessons can Indian producers

draw from Brazil’s Carajás mining complex and Australia’s Pilbara operations in advancing ESG-aligned

operations? and (6) How do future directional strategies in Indian mining, quantified ESG metrics, and global

green-steel technologies converge to forge a resilient pathway forward?

The analysis draws on primary data from the Ministry of Mines (Government of India), the World Steel

Association, leading merchant-bank and consultancy research, peer-reviewed sustainability literature, and

Page 1605

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

contemporaneous industry trackers. It argues that India’s long-term iron ore security and competitiveness in a

decarbonising steel system will be determined less by geological endowment than by the pace and credibility of

ESG-centred institutional reform and logistics modernisation.

Methodologically, the article synthesises projections from multilateral agencies, industry associations, and

commercial research providers into consistent baseline and net-zero scenarios for iron ore demand, supply, and

prices to 2050, and applies these to India-specific ore-balance and policy pathways. The analytical approach

comprises three elements: (i) demand modelling based on regional steel-output scenarios, ore intensity, and

evolving scrap shares; (ii) supply analysis incorporating regional expansions, cost tiers, and depletion/closure

profiles; and (iii) price formation anchored in cost curves, consensus price bands, and identified volatility drivers.

This framework underpins the subsequent assessment of India’s strategic options in an increasingly ESG-

governed, quality-differentiated global iron ore market.

Global Demand Outlook: From Chinese Dominance to Polycentric Growth

Global apparent iron ore consumption is projected to expand at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

of 1.9–2.3 % between 2025 and 2030, rising from approximately 2.1 billion metric tonnes (Bt) in 2025 to circa

3.0 Bt by the end of the decade (Fitch Solutions, 2025; World Steel Association, 2025). Beyond 2030, demand

trajectories diverge amid decarbonisation pressures: baseline scenarios forecast a plateau or modest rise to ~2.5–

2.8 Bt by 2050, driven by ex-China growth, while net-zero pathways cap consumption at ~1.8 Bt through scrap

recycling and material efficiency (IEA, 2020; SMS Group, 2025).

China, which accounted for 56 % of global demand in 2024, is expected to register absolute consumption

contraction of 3–4 % per annum through 2028 as property-sector deleveraging and steel-capacity rationalisation

policies bite (CRU Group, 2025). By 2050, China's share could shrink to 30–40 %, with imports dipping to ~900

Mt amid domestic depletion (S&P Global, 2025) Figure 1. Conversely, ex-China demand is forecast to accelerate,

led by India (CAGR ~9 % to 2030, potentially tripling to 600–700 Mt by 2050), ASEAN-5 economies and select

MENA infrastructure programmes (Ministry of Steel, 2025; EY Parthenon, 2025). India alone is anticipated to

add 120–140 Mtpa of incremental steel demand by 2030–31, translating into an additional domestic iron ore

requirement of 90–110 Mtpa assuming current sinter-feed grade profiles, escalating to ~350 Mtpa by 2050 under

green steel mandates (BigMint, 2025). This polycentric shift underscores the imperative for supply chains to

pivot from export-led models toward regionally resilient configurations, with high-grade ores increasingly

favoured for their compatibility with green steel technologies (Aurther 2025) . The projected shift from

China‑centric to polycentric demand, with India emerging as one of the few large, structurally growing steel

markets, implies that India will act less as a swing exporter of low‑grade ore and more as a structurally

constrained, quality‑sensitive consumer. Under both baseline and net‑zero trajectories, domestic ore production

must not only expand volumetrically but also improve in average grade and consistency if India is to avoid

persistent dependence on high‑grade imports and exposure to external price and carbon‑policy shocks.

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

2025

Years

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

ChinaIndia

Rest

World

of

AsiaOther

Total

Regions

(Baseline)World Total (Net-Zero)

Page 1606

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

Figure 1: Projected Global Iron Ore Demand by Region, 2025–2050 (Bt).

The resulting geography of demand has important implications for ore-quality preferences. Decarbonisation-

oriented process routes—most notably hydrogen direct reduced iron (H-DRI) and, in the longer term, molten

oxide electrolysis—favour high-grade, low-impurity ores that minimise energy use and specific emissions per

tonne of steel. As Simandou, Carajás, and the Pilbara inject substantial volumes of such material into the seaborne

market, the global iron ore system becomes not only more abundant in volume terms but also more sharply

differentiated by quality and ESG attributes. For India, whose resource base is dominated by low- to medium-

grade ore, this transition implies that long-term iron ore security will depend as much on upgrading domestic ore

and securing reliable access to high-grade imports as on expanding total output.

Supply-Side Dynamics and the Emerging Surplus

Global crude iron ore production reached 2.42 Bt in 2024 and is on track to exceed 2.6 Bt by 2027, driven

principally by low-cost expansions in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, Brazil’s Carajás province and Guinea’s

Simandou (BHP, 2025; Vale S.A., 2025; Rio Tinto, 2025). Landmark high-grade greenfield developments –

notably Rio Tinto–Baowu’s Western Range in Pilbara (2025 ramp-up to 25 Mtpa) and the staged commissioning

of Guinea’s Simandou Blocks 3 & 4 (cumulative 100+ Mtpa by 2030) – will add a further 150–180 Mtpa of

predominantly direct-feed, low-impurity material to the seaborne market (Rio Tinto, 2025; Société Minière de

Boké, 2025, Mohr et al 2014).

The Simandou project, Africa's largest greenfield integrated mine and infrastructure endeavour, exemplifies this

supply surge. Valued at over US$20 billion, it encompasses high-grade deposits (averaging 65.3% Fe) across

four blocks, with a total mineral resource of 2.8 Bt and ore reserves supporting a 26-year mine life. Ownership

is bifurcated: Blocks 1 and 2 under the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS, including Baowu), and Blocks 3

and 4 via Rio Tinto's SimFer JV (with Chinalco). Operations commenced in November 2025, marked by the

inaugural ceremony at Forécariah port, with first shipments – including a 200,000-tonne cargo to China's Ningbo

port – departing in early December 2025. The project integrates over 600 km of multiuse trans-Guinean rail,

barge facilities and transshipment ports, enabling up to 120 Mtpa exports upon full rampup (expected by 2028

for SimFer's 60 Mtpa share). This infrastructure, co-owned by WCS, SimFer (42.5% each) and the Guinean

government (15%), not only unlocks premium DR-grade ore ideal for low-carbon steel but also catalyses

Guinea's economic transformation through job creation and industrial spillover. The emergence of Simandou

and the continued expansion of Carajás and the Pilbara collectively lock in an era of “managed abundance” in

which high‑grade, ESG‑differentiated ore is widely available on seaborne markets, but price premia and access

increasingly depend on verifiable sustainability credentials. For India, this means that ore security is no longer

simply a question of tonnage; it is a question of aligning domestic mining, beneficiation and logistics with the

quality and ESG expectations that green‑steel value chains will impose on ore suppliers.[4][5][1]

From an environmental, social and governance perspective, Simandou is framed by its sponsors as a flagship

example of integrating international standards—including the International Finance Corporation’s Performance

Standards, particularly PS1 and PS6—into a large greenfield iron ore project in a low‑income, high‑biodiversity

setting. Independent biodiversity advisory work has highlighted the Simandou range as critical habitat for the

western chimpanzee and describes avoidance and offset measures designed to achieve “no net loss” outcomes,

yet recent civil‑society reporting has raised concerns about construction‑phase water quality, safety incidents and

livelihood impacts along the rail and port corridor, suggesting that implementation has not fully matched design

intent. Simandou therefore offers India both an aspirational template—in terms of high‑grade, DR‑suitable ore

embedded in a formal IFC‑aligned framework—and a cautionary tale about the challenges of translating paper

standards into credible, on‑the‑ground ESG performance.^[6][7][4][1]Simandou values reflect design intent and

public disclosures as of 2025; independent monitoring highlights implementation risks, particularly in water

quality and community impacts (Table 1).”^[7][8]These design metrics—encompassing GHG reductions (target:

20% by 2030, scaling to net-zero by 2050), water stewardship (recycling >80%) and social inclusion (community

investment >5% of EBITDA)—align with SASB and GRI standards, enhancing access to green finance and

mitigating reputational risks (Minespider, 2025). Lessons from Carajás' 15% emission cuts via renewables,

Simandou's habitat avoidance and Pilbara's 30% carbon targets by 2025 underscore the need for Indian

Page 1607

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

operations to prioritise high-grade beneficiation, indigenous partnerships and fleet electrification. By 2050, ESG

compliance could unlock US$100+ billion in sustainable investments, but structural challenges persist: logistic

bottlenecks inflate delivered costs by US$12–30/t, low-to-medium grade ore necessitates energy-intensive

beneficiation, and historical tailings dams continue to pose long-term environmental risk.

Table 1: Comparative Indicative Design Metrics for Simandou, Carajas and Pilbara and Indian benchmark 2025.

Indicative Design

Metric

Pilbara (2025) Indian Avg. (e.g.,

NMDC/Tata)

Simandou (2025)

Carajás (2025)

GHG

CO₂e/t)

Intensity

(t

1.2 (target 0.8

<1.0

1.5

2.0 (target 0.5 by 2050)

by 2030)

Water Recycling (%)

Biodiversity Offset

80

85

>90

1:2

85 (target 95 by 2050)

1:3

1:2

Local Procurement (%)

70

65

80

70 (target 85 by 2050)

Community

Investment (US$/yr)

100M+ (DMF, scaling to

500M by 2050)

>100M

125M

150M+

Note: Sources: Rio Tinto (2025); Vale S.A. (2025); BHP (2025); NMDC (2025).

In parallel, Brazil's Carajás complex, operated by Vale S.A., exemplifies mature ESG integration in highvolume

production. As the world's largest high-grade iron ore mine (65% Fe), Carajás produced 65 Mt in 2024, with

Vale's Novo Carajás Program investing US$12.3 billion through 2030 to expand output to 200 Mtpa while

advancing decarbonisation. Key ESG metrics include: 100% renewable energy adoption in Brazil by 2025,

reducing Scope 2 emissions by 15% (1.7 Mt CO₂e avoided); water recycling at 85% with zero-liquid discharge

targets by 2027; 6,000+ ha reforested since 2013, supporting 50 biodiversity projects; and community

investments of US$125 million annually, achieving 30% growth in local supplier revenues (Vale S.A., 2025;

Farmonaut, 2025). These benchmarks—GHG intensity <1.5 t CO₂e/t ore, water efficiency >80%, and social ROI

>5x—position Carajás as a model for Indian producers navigating similar Amazonian-scale ecosystems. By

2050, Carajás expansions could contribute ~300 Mtpa, assuming sustained ESG enhancements amid global

depletion pressures (Vale S.A., 2025).

Australia's Pilbara region, the world's premier iron ore hub producing ~970 Mt in 2025 (37% global share), sets

the gold standard for ESG-driven operations amid vast resources (70 Bt JORC-compliant at 62% Fe). Major

players like BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are targeting 30% Scope 1/2 emissions reductions by 2030 (from 2020

baselines), with Pilbara-wide initiatives including 100% renewable energy by 2050, water recycling >90% via

desalination, and Indigenous co-designed heritage plans (e.g., Rio Tinto's Western Range: 1:2 biodiversity

offsets, 80% local procurement). BHP's Pilbara mines aim for 30% carbon cuts by 2025 through electrification

and hydrogen pilots, while Fortescue transitions fleets to battery-electric/green hydrogen, enhancing ESG scores

(e.g., MSCI 'AA' ratings) and securing green premiums (BHP, 2025; Rio Tinto, 2025; Farmonaut, 2025). These

practices—low cash costs (US$17-23/t), rigorous IFC/PS6 compliance and blockchain traceability—offer

scalable lessons for India, where similar arid conditions demand water stewardship and emission tracking.

Consequently, the seaborne market is expected to swing from a modest deficit in 2023–2024 into a structural

surplus of 40–80 Mtpa during 2026–2029, before reverting toward balance as legacy Tier-2 and Tier3 operations

face natural depletion (Macquarie Research, 2025). In India, production is projected to contract at a -1.3% CAGR

to 235 Mt by 2030, tempered by mine closures (e.g., Koira, Oraghat) but offset by expansions in Bailadila and

Dharmapur (2026), alongside Sakradih-Dubna (2027), with ambitions scaling to 385–425 Mt by 2030 and

potentially 700 Mtpa by 2050 to underpin 500 Mtpa steel capacity (Lean Resources, 2025; IBEF, 2025). This

Page 1608

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

paradoxical dynamic—domestic demand surging amid constrained supply—will necessitate strategic imports of

high-grade ore, positioning India as a net importer by decade's end and heightening reliance on projects like

Simandou, Carajás and Pilbara for feedstock optimisation, potentially reaching 100+ Mtpa imports by 2050 (EY

Parthenon, 2025) Figure 2.

3.5

3

2.5

Australia (Pilbara-led)

Brazil

China

India

World Total

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

2025

Years

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Figure 2: Global Iron Ore Production Projections by Key Country, 2025–2050

Price Formation in an Era of Oversupply and Quality Differentiation

The 62 % Fe CFR China benchmark, which averaged US$112/dmt in calendar 2024, has already corrected to

approximately US$95/dmt by Q4 2025 and is forecast by consensus to settle in an US$80–95/dmt band through

the remainder of the decade (Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, 2025; Wood Mackenzie, 2025). By

2050, prices could stabilise at US$50–80/dmt in real terms amid surplus and recycling dominance, though

premiums for DR-grade ore (e.g., +US$25–30/dmt for 65% Fe) will persist, reflecting steelmakers’ imperative

to minimise specific coke rates and Scope 3 emissions under nascent carbon border adjustment mechanisms

(CBAMs) and escalating carbon taxes up to US$229/t CO₂ by 2050 (Fitch Solutions, 2025; S&P Global, 2025)

Figure 3. For Indian producers, this quality differential amplifies the urgency to beneficiate lowgrade domestic

ore (55–63% Fe), lest they cede market share to premium seaborne blends from Simandou, Carajás and Pilbara,

whose DR-ready fines align seamlessly with hydrogen-based reduction processes. Longterm, green steel

premiums could erode to <1% by 2040, incentivising high-grade upgrades (EY Parthenon, 2025).

120

100

80

60

Average Price

Lower Bound

40

20

0

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Years

Page 1609

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

Figure 3: Iron Ore Price Forecast (62% Fe CFR China), 2025–2050 (US$/dmt)

Short‑term volatility drivers. While the long‑run trajectory of benchmark prices is anchored by marginal supply

costs and structural shifts in demand, short‑ and medium‑term volatility increasingly reflects factors beyond

mine output and steel demand. Weather‑related disruptions in Western Australia and Brazil, rail and port outages,

and monsoon‑season constraints in India can rapidly tighten seaborne balances, while swings in freight rates and

fuel prices amplify delivered‑cost volatility, particularly for distant importers such as Indian mills.

Financialisation of the iron ore market—via futures trading, speculative positioning and changing margin

requirements on major exchanges—adds another layer of price noise around fundamentals, with episodes of

rapid price spikes or corrections that may not reflect concurrent shifts in physical supply–demand balances.

Geopolitical and policy shocks, including export‑duty changes, sanctions or abrupt adjustments in China’s macro

or property policies, further complicate forecasting and underscore the need for Indian policymakers and firms

to adopt robust risk‑management strategies rather than relying on point forecasts alone.^{[3][9][10][2]}

Sustainability Imperatives in Indian Iron Ore Mining: From Compliance to Competitive Advantage

Despite possessing the world’s fourth-largest economic reserves (circa 33 Bt of hematite and magnetite), Indian

iron ore mining has historically been characterised by high environmental externalities, sub-economic scale and

regulatory opacity (IBM, 2025). Recent legislative and policy interventions – notably the Mines and Minerals

(Development and Regulation) Amendment Act, 2021, the National Mineral Policy 2019, and the Union Budget

2025–26 allocation of ₹16,300 crore for critical mineral recycling and tailings valorisation – signal a

paradigmatic shift toward sustainable mining praxis (Ministry of Mines, 2025). Leading Indian producers have

begun operationalising ESG frameworks at scale, yielding quantifiable metrics that benchmark progress against

global norms, drawing parallels to Simandou's biodiversity offsets, Carajás' renewable integration (Farmonaut

2025). and Pilbara's electrification

Regulatory and socio‑environmental challenges in India. Notwithstanding recent policy reforms, India’s iron

ore sector continues to contend with regulatory fragmentation and procedural bottlenecks. Multiple layers of

clearance—for forest diversion, environmental impact assessment, wildlife, and land acquisition—combined

with overlapping mandates across central and state agencies, generate long lead times and uncertainty for both

new projects and capacity expansions. Land‑use conflicts are widespread in mineral‑rich states such as Odisha,

Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, where mining leases frequently overlap with Scheduled Areas, community forests

and agricultural land, leading to litigation, protests and delays in operationalisation. Legacy issues, including

incomplete mine closure, unreclaimed pits, acid mine drainage and poorly managed overburden dumps, impose

long‑lived externalities on local communities and ecosystems, particularly under intense monsoonal regimes in

eastern India. Rail‑logistics constraints and congestion on key mineral corridors, combined with last‑mile

trucking from mines to sidings, inflate delivered ore costs and increase dust and emissions, eroding both

economic and environmental performance.[13][14][15][16][17][18][1]

Against this backdrop of structural governance and logistical challenges, a growing cohort of Indian miners and

integrated steel producers have begun to experiment with ESG‑aligned operational models that partially mirror

global leaders in Brazil and Australia, albeit from a more constrained institutional base.^[19][1]

1. NMDC Limited has deployed satellite-based mine monitoring systems and commissioned 15 MW of

captive solar capacity across its Chhattisgarh and Karnataka operations, reducing Scope 2 emissions by

18 % year-on-year and achieving an ESG score of 8.7/10 per independent audits (NMDC, 2025). Water

recycling rates exceed 85%, with zero-liquid discharge at key sites, mirroring Carajás' 85% efficiency

and Pilbara's >90% targets.

2. Tata Steel’s Noamundi and Joda mines achieved zero-liquid discharge status in FY2024–25 and recycled

15 billion litres of process water, contributing to a biodiversity offset ratio of 1:3 (rehabilitated hectares

per disturbed), akin to Simandou's PS6 compliance and Pilbara's 1:2 ratios (Tata Steel, 2025).

3. JSW Steel and Vedanta have instituted comprehensive biodiversity offsets and community trust funds

under the District Mineral Foundation (DMF) architecture, channelling over ₹18,000 crore into peripheral

Page 1610

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

development since 2015, with local procurement mandates fulfilling 70% of operational needs, aligning

with Simandou's 70% local sourcing and Pilbara's 80% Indigenous-inclusive models (Vedanta Resources,

2025).

These indicative design metrics—encompassing GHG reductions (target: 20% by 2030, scaling to netzero by

2050), water stewardship (recycling >80%) and social inclusion (community investment >5% of EBITDA)—

align with SASB and GRI standards, enhancing access to green finance and mitigating reputational risks

(Minespider, 2025). Lessons from Carajás' 15% emission cuts via renewables, Simandou's habitat avoidance and

Pilbara's 30% carbon targets by 2025 underscore the need for Indian operations to prioritise highgrade

beneficiation, indigenous partnerships and fleet electrification (Table 1). By 2050, ESG compliance could unlock

US$100+ billion in sustainable investments, but structural challenges persist: logistic bottlenecks inflate

delivered costs by US$12–30/t, low-to-medium grade ore necessitates energy-intensive beneficiation, and

historical tailings dams continue to pose long-term environmental risk.

Table 1: Comparative ESG Metrics-Simandou, Carajás, Pilbara, and Indian Benchmarks (2025)

Indicative Design Metric Simandou Carajás

Pilbara (2025)

Indian Avg. (e.g., NMDC/Tata)

(2025)

GHG Intensity (t CO₂e/t)

<1.0

1.5

1.2 (target 0.8 by

2030)

2.0 (target 0.5 by 2050)

Water Recycling (%)

Biodiversity Offset

80

1:3

70

85

>90

1:2

85 (target 95 by 2050)

1:3

1:2

Local Procurement (%)

65

80

70 (target 85 by 2050)

Community

(US$/yr)

Investment >100M

125M

150M+

100M+ (DMF, scaling to 500M

by 2050)

Sources: Rio Tinto (2025); Vale S.A. (2025); BHP (2025); NMDC (2025).

Future Directions in Indian Iron Ore Mining: Aligning with Global Green Steel Imperatives

Disruption scenarios to 2050. To explore the robustness of India’s strategic options, three illustrative disruption

pathways are considered. In a low‑disruption, orderly‑transition scenario, Simandou and other major projects

ramp broadly on schedule, green‑steel adoption follows central IEA‑type trajectories, and CBAM carbon prices

rise predictably within current guidance ranges, yielding a gradually softening benchmark price with persistent

but manageable DR‑grade premia. A medium‑disruption pathway envisages delays of several years at

Simandou and other high‑grade projects, slower‑than‑planned domestic reform of Indian mining, and a

somewhat faster tightening of CBAM and related carbon‑border mechanisms, resulting in tighter seaborne

balances, elevated premia for verified low‑carbon ore, and heightened exposure of Indian exporters to

carbon‑cost differentials. A high‑disruption scenario combines repeated supply shocks in key exporting regions

with accelerated deployment of hydrogen‑based DRI and MOE in OECD and parts of Asia, alongside a steep

CBAM price path, fragmenting the market into relatively cheap, high‑emission steel and constrained‑supply

near‑zero‑carbon steel, and forcing India to choose between rapid decarbonisation of its ore and steel value

chains or a progressive loss of access to premium export markets. Across all three scenarios, India’s exposure is

conditioned not only by the volume and grade of domestic ore but also by the credibility of ESG regulation, the

speed of logistics upgrades and the depth of partnerships with high‑grade, ESG‑differentiated

suppliers.[18][20][21][22][23][4][11][1]

India's iron ore sector is charting a trajectory toward self-sufficiency, with production ambitions scaling

Page 1611

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

to 385 Mt by 2030 to underpin 300 Mtpa steel capacity, potentially reaching 700 Mtpa by 2050 amid 500 Mtpa

steel goals (Lean Resources, 2025; IBEF, 2025). Key directional vectors include:

1. Capacity Expansion and Consolidation: NMDC targets 100 Mtpa by 2029–30 via greenfield ventures

(e.g., Deposits 13 & 4) and brownfield upgrades (Kirandul +15.4 Mtpa); JSW Steel aims for 50% captive

supply self-sufficiency (NMDC, 2025). The 'Big 5' producers' market share will surge to 66% by 2030,

driven by auction premiums exceeding 100% and preferential allocation to integrated steelmakers (CRU

Group, 2025). By 2050, auctions could allocate 500+ blocks, emphasising ESG-compliant operators akin

to Pilbara's strategic assessments.

2. Technological Leapfrogging: Investments in AI-driven predictive maintenance, drone surveillance and

blockchain traceability will optimise yields from low-grade reserves, targeting a 10–15% efficiency uplift

(Farmonaut, 2025). Hydrogen beneficiation pilots could reduce emissions 50% by 2040, emulating

Pilbara's DRI trials.

3. Policy Catalysts: The National Critical Mineral Mission (₹16,300 crore outlay) incentivises tailings

recovery and sub-surface exploration, while G2G MoUs (e.g., with Germany) facilitate technology

transfer for hydrogen-based beneficiation. By 2050, carbon pricing (US$229/t CO₂) will mandate net-

zero compliance (EY Parthenon, 2025).

This domestic pivot intersects with global green steel initiatives, where low-carbon steel production is projected

to burgeon at 60.4% CAGR to USD 189.82 billion by 2032, potentially comprising 35% (~660 Mt) of 1.9 Bt

global steel output by 2050 (Coherent Market Insights, 2025; Watari and McLellan, 2024). Green

H-DRI (Europe)

H-DRI (Asia)

EAF (North America)

MOE (Global Pilots)

Other (to 2050 Share)

Figure 4: Global Green Steel Projects by Technology and Region

steel technologies, pivotal to achieving net-zero by 2050, encompass hydrogen direct reduced iron (H-DRI),

where renewable hydrogen reduces iron ore pellets in shaft or fluidized-bed furnaces (e.g., Midrex H2™ or

Energiron processes), yielding sponge iron for electric arc furnaces (EAFs) with 95% emission cuts; molten

oxide electrolysis (MOE), as commercialised by Boston Metal, which electrolyses iron ore in molten salts using

clean electricity for near-zero CO2 output (Aurthur 2025); and transitional pathways like natural gas DRI with

carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) or biochar substitution in blast furnaces. Pioneering plants, such

as Stegra's (formerly H2 Green Steel) 2.5 Mtpa facility in Boden, Sweden—set for 2025 startup— and SSAB's

HYBRIT initiative in Gällivare, demonstrate H-DRI scalability, while Electra's modular electrochemical

reduction promises energy parity with conventional methods by 2030 (IDTechEx, 2025).

Europe leads with CBAM enforcement, compelling Indian exporters to certify Scope 3 emissions

(ResearchAndMarkets, 2025). LeadIT's Green Steel Tracker logs 99 projects globally (Figure 4), with H-DRI

dominant and Asia (including India) emerging as investment hotspots (SEI, 2025). Indian majors like JSW Steel,

now LeadIT members, are piloting green hydrogen DRI and MOE hybrids, aligning ESG metrics with UNIDO's

Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative to secure premiums for low-carbon ore (Leadership Group for

Page 1612

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

Industry Transition, 2025, Figure 5). By 2050, India's green steel demand could reach 179 Mt, with premiums

falling below 1% (EY Parthenon, 2025). The strategic imperative for Indian miners is therefore unambiguous:

transition from a volume-driven, cost-plus mindset to a value-over-volume paradigm anchored in high-grade

pellet production, renewable-powered beneficiation, verifiable carbon accounting and seamless integration into

green steel ecosystems, leveraging Simandou-like high-Fe imports for H-DRI compatibility and emulating

Carajás/Pilbara's renewable scaling.

CONCLUSION

The global iron ore market is poised to enter a quarter‑century of managed abundance rather than scarcity,

underpinned by high‑grade supply additions from Simandou, sustained low‑cost expansion in Carajás and

continued volume and ESG leadership from the Pilbara region. For India, this evolving regime implies not a

problem of absolute resource scarcity but a problem of strategic alignment: aligning domestic mining,

beneficiation and logistics systems with a global iron ore value chain that is simultaneously more abundant, more

quality‑differentiated and more tightly governed by decarbonisation and ESG norms than in any previous era.

Robust domestic steel demand—projected to nearly triple by 2050—will intersect with intensifying international

ESG scrutiny, the rapid emergence of green steel technologies and markets, and the growing premium attached

to high‑grade and low‑emission ores.^[1][2][3][4]

India’s ability to convert its resource endowment into durable competitive advantage will hinge on three

interlocking commitments. First, credible, enforcement‑backed ESG and land‑use governance is required to

manage social and environmental externalities and to maintain the social licence to operate in an era of

heightened global transparency. Second, sustained investment in high‑grade beneficiation capacity and

rail‑centred, low‑emission logistics is needed to upgrade ore quality, reduce embedded emissions in delivered

products and enhance connectivity between inland deposits and coastal steel clusters. Third, active integration

into emergent green‑steel technology and trade architectures—shaped by the European Union’s Carbon Border

Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and analogous instruments in other major markets—is essential if Indian

producers are to preserve access to premium export segments and avoid carbon‑related trade

penalties.[5][6][7][2][8][9][1]

Within this context, the confluence of rising domestic demand, the projected growth of global and national

green‑steel markets, and tightening carbon‑border regimes creates both existential risk and unprecedented

opportunity for Indian iron ore and steel producers. Only organisations that embed sustainability at the core of

corporate strategy—treating decarbonisation not as a narrow compliance burden but as a source of enduring

competitive moat—are likely to secure long‑term offtake partnerships with global steel majors navigating

CBAM‑aligned carbon pricing and net‑zero mandates. Policy coherence, accelerated infrastructure investment

and private‑sector innovation must therefore converge if India is to avoid relegation to the lower tier of a

bifurcated global steel economy and instead reposition itself as both a major steel producer and a responsible

steward of mineral resources in a net‑zero world.^{[7][2][10][11][12][13][1]}

REFERENCES

1. Arthur D. Little. (2025). Paving the way to net zero: The future of green steel [Viewpoint].

https://www.adlittle.com/en/insights/viewpoints/paving-way-net-zero-future-green-steel^[1]

2. BankTrack. (2025). Simandou iron ore project.

3. https://www.banktrack.org/project/simandou_iron_ore_project_guinea^[2]

4. BHP. (2025). Annual report 2025. https://www.bhp.com/investors/annual-reporting^[3]

5. BigMint.

(2025). India’s iron

ore

demand to

surge 50%

by

2030.

GMK

Center. https://gmk.center/en/news/demand-for-iron-ore-in-india-could-grow-by-50-by-2030^[4]

6. Coherent Market Insights. (2025). Green steel market size, share & opportunities 2025–2032.

https://www.coherentmarketinsights.com/industry-reports/green-steel-market^[5]

7. CRU Group. (2025). Iron ore market outlook Q4 2025. CRU International Ltd.^[6]

Page 1613

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

8. Ecovadis. (2025). CBAM explained:

The

EU’s

Carbon

Border Adjustment Mechanism.

9. https://ecovadis.com/regulations/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam^[7]

10. EY‑Parthenon. (2025). Unlocking green steel demand: An assessment of India’s automotive,

infrastructure and construction sectors. https://www.e y .com/en_in/newsroom/2025/07/india-s-green-

steel-demand-tosurge^[8]

11. Farmonaut. (2025). Carajás iron

ore

2025:

Sustainable

growth

in Brazil’s

mining.

https://farmonaut.com/mining/carajas-iron-ore-2025-sustainable-growth-in-brazils-mining^[9]

12. Fitch Solutions. (2025). Global iron ore mining industry report 2025–2034. Fitch Solutions Group

Limited.^[10]

13. Fortune Business Insights. (2025). Green steel market size, share, growth: Forecast report to 2032.

https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/green-steel-market-108711^[11]

14. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. (2025). Global metals & mining: The age of abundance.

Goldman Sachs.^[6]

15. Indian Bureau of Mines. (2025). Indian minerals yearbook 2024. Ministry of Mines, Government of

India.^[10]

16. India Brand Equity Foundation. (2025). India’s steel production: A global leader in iron & steel industry

growth. https://ibef.org/industry/steel^[12]

17. IDTechEx. (2025). Green steel 2025–2035: Technologies, players, markets,forecasts.

https://www.idtechex.com/en/research-report/green-steel-2025-2035-technologies-players-

marketsforecasts/1084^[13]

18. Lean Resources. (2025). India steel & iron ore outlook 2030: Growth & market

trends.https://www.leanrs.com/insights/india-steel-iron-ore-outlook-2030-growth-market-trends^[10]

19. Macquarie Research. (2025). Global iron ore: Supply surge meets demand plateau. Macquarie Capital.^[6]

Midrex Technologies, Inc. (2025). Pathways to green steel. https://www.midrex.com/tech-

article/pathways-togreen-steel^[14]

20. Minespider. (2025). The most commonly used ESG metrics in the metals and mining sector.

https://www.minespider.com/ebook/esg-metrics-in-the-metals-and-mining-sector^[7]

21. Ministry of Mines. (2025). Annual report 2024–25. Government of India.^[10]

22. Ministry of Steel. (2025). National steel policy implementation roadmap 2030. Government of India.^[12]

23. MIT Technology Review. (2025). Green steel: 10 breakthrough technologies 2025. MIT Technology

Review.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/03/1108955/green-hydrogen-steel-greenhouse-

gasescarbon-emissions-breakthrough-technologies-2025^[15]

24. Mohr, S., Giurco, D., Yellishetty, M., Ward, J., & Mudd, G. (2014). Projection of iron ore production.

Natural Resources Research, 24(3), 317–327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-014-9256-6^[6]

25. News18. (2025, July 29). India’s green steel demand set to surge 40‑fold by 2050: Report. News18

Business.

26. https://www.news18.com/business/economy/indias-green-steel-demand-set-to-surge-40-fold-by-

2050report-9472866.html^[16]

27. NMDC Limited. (2025). Sustainability report FY2024–25. https://www.nmdc.co.in^[10]

28. Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development. (2025). OECD steel outlook 2025. OECD

Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/05/oecd-steel-outlook-2025_bf2b6109.html^[17]

29. PwC. (2024). The EU

CBAM:

Implications

for

supply

chains.

PricewaterhouseCoopers.

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/tax/esg-tax/cbam-supply-chain-imperatives.html^[18]

30. ResearchAndMarkets. (2025). Global green (low‑carbon) steel market 2025–2035: Decarbonizing the

steel industry with clean technologies. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/6123456/global-

greenlow-carbon-steel-market-2025^[6]

31. Reuters. (2025, November 12). Guinea aims for global high‑grade iron ore leverage with Simandou

launch.

Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/guinea-aims-global-high-grade-iron-ore-

leverage-withsimandou-launch-2025-11-12^[6]

32. Rio Tinto. (2025). Simandou project update: December 2025. Rio Tinto plc.^[6]

33. S&P Global. (2025). Iron ore to play key role in a decarbonized future. S&P Global Market Intelligence.

34. https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/iron-ore-to-play-key-role-in-

adecarbonized-future^[6]

Page 1614

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

35. SEI. (2025). Global shift in green steel projects as major investments move beyond Europe into Asia.

Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/about-sei/press-room/green-steel-projects-move-

beyondeurope-to-asia^[15]

36. SMS Group. (2025). The steel industry in 2050. https://www.sms-group.com/insights/all-insights/the-

steelindustry-in-2050^[19]

37. Société Minière de Boké. (2025). Annual report 2025. Société Minière de Boké.^[6]

38. Tata Steel. (2025). Integrated report & annual accounts 2024–25. Tata Steel Limited.^[10]

39. Vale S.A. (2025). Production and sales report 3Q25. Vale S.A.^[6]

40. Vedanta Resources. (2025). Sustainable development report 2024–25. Vedanta Limited.^[10]

41. Watari, T., & McLellan, B. (2024). Global demand for green hydrogen‑based steel: Insights from 28

scenarios.

42. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 79, 630–635.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2024.06.423^[13]Wood Mackenzie. (2025). Global iron ore long‑term

outlook Q3 2025. Wood Mackenzie Ltd.^[4]

43. World Steel Association. (2025). Steel statistical yearbook 2025 and Short‑range outlook October 2025.

World Steel Association. https://worldsteel.org^[20]

44. European Commission. (2023). Regulation (EU) 2023/956 establishing a carbon border adjustment

mechanism.

Official

Journal

of

the

European

Union.

https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-

markets/en/news/carbonborder-adjustment-mechanism-cbam^[21]

45. European Commission. (2025). Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Directorate‑General

for

Taxation

and

Customs

Union.

https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-

adjustmentmechanism_en^[3]

46. KPMG. (2025). EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): A new era of global trade. KPMG

International.https://kpmg.com/xx/en/o ur-insights/esg/carbon-border-adjustment-

mechanismcbam.html^[22]

47. Brookings Institution. (2025).

What

is

a

carbon

border

adjustment

mechanism?

48. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism^[23]

49. Normative.

(2025). The

EU’s

Carbon

Border

Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM),

explained. https://normative.io/insight/eu-cbam-explained^[24]

50. Wikipedia contributors. (2025). EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. In Wikipedia, The Free

Encyclopedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_Carbon_Border_Adjustment_Mechanism^[25]

51. Grand View Research. (2024). Green steel market size and share: Industry report to 2030.

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/green-steel-market-report^[26]

52. Stellar

Market

Research. (2020). Green

steel

market:

Industry analysis

and

forecast. https://www.stellarmr.com/report/Green-Steel-Market/2124^[10]

53. LinkedIn. (2024). The future of steel: Global and Indian demand for green hydrogen‑based steel [Post by

Vivekananthan,P.].https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/futur e-steel-global-indian-demand-

greenvivekananthan-ph-d-7tbyc^[18]https://www.linkedin.com/posts/arthur-d--little_adlpaving-the-way-

to-net-zero-activity7312505821232340992-0Qtk

54. https://netzeroindustr y .org

55. https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en

56. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/indias-steel-demand-to-surge-as-chinas-

sharedeclines-woodmac-125090301092_1.html

57. https://www.coherentmarketinsights.com/industry-reports/green-steel-market

58. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250128726914/en/Global-Green-Low-Carbon-

SteelMarket-2025-2035-Decarbonizing-the-Steel-Industry-with-Clean-Technologies--

ResearchAndMarkets.com

59. https://ecovadis.com/regulations/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam/

60. https://www.e y .com/en_in/newsroom/2025/07/india-s-green-steel-demand-to-surge

61. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/future-steel-global-indian-demand-green-vivekananthan-ph-d-7tbyc

62. https://www.stellarmr.com/report/Green-Steel-Market/2124

63. https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/green-steel-market-108711

64. https://www.ibef.org/news/india-s-steel-demand-to-triple-by-2050-as-china-s-share-contracts-

woodmackenzie

Page 1615

www.rsisinternational.org

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND SCIENTIFIC INNO V A T ION (IJRSI)

ISSN No. 2321-2705 | DOI: 10.51244/IJRSI |V o lume XII Issue IX September 2025

65. https://www.idtechex.com/en/research-report/green-steel-2025-2035-technologies-players-

marketsforecasts/1084

66. https://energ y .economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/indias-green-steel-demand-to-soar-to-

179mt-by-2050-ey-parthenon/122969201

67. https://www.mckinse y .com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/net-zero-steel-in-building-

andconstruction-the-way-forward

68. https://www.news18.com/business/economy/indias-green-steel-demand-set-to-surge-40-fold-by-

2050report-9472866.html

69. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/05/oecd-steel-outlook-2025_bf2b6109.html

70. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/tax/esg-tax/cbam-supply-chain-imperatives.html

71. https://www.metatechinsights.com/industry-insights/green-steel-market-3317

72. https://worldsteel.org

73. https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/news/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam

74. https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/esg/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam.html

75. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/

76. https://normative.io/insight/eu-cbam-explained/

77. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_Carbon_Border_Adjustment_Mechanism

78. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/green-steel-market-report

79. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/georgglaser_adlpaving-the-way-to-net-zero-

activity7313152872169246720-uFjv

80. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/arthur-d--little_netzero-emissions-sustainability-

activity7345753125552615424-czhb

81. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/hasan-akbulut-a5338827_adl-paving-the-way-to-net-zero-2025-

activity7314902248705171457-002I

82. https://www.tjmcsteel.com/news/worldsteel-short-range-outlook-for-steel-in-2024-and-2025.html

83. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/yulincheng--ray_worldsteelassociation-steeldemand-

steelmarketactivity-7384107630279110657-X1C4

84. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/arthur-d--little_balancing-sustainability-with-value-creation-

activity7302319364349788160-6oXi

85. https://worldsteel.org/media/press-releases/2025/

86. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/arthur-d--little_data-decarbonization-greendata-

activity7145322369333538816-J-as

87. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/6041976/the-global-market-green-low-carbon-steel

88. https://www.ukmetalsexpo.com/2025/02/03/hydrogen-sparks-change-for-the-future-of-green-

steelproduction/

89. https://aetoswire.com/en/news/1710202442237

Page 1616

www.rsisinternational.org