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Return Migration and Its Economic Impact on Kerala: Trends,
Drivers and Post- Covid Policy Implications
1
Jeena P.M,
2
Fathimath Hiba P.K
1
Assistant Professor, Dept. of PG Studies & Research in Economics, MES Ponnani College, Ponnani,
Malappuram, Kerala, India
2
Post Graduate Student, Dept. of PG Studies & Research in Economics, MES Ponnani College, Ponnani,
Malappuram, Kerala, India
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.51244/IJRSI.2025.120800073
Received: 08 Aug 2025; Accepted: 13 Aug 2025; Published: 05 September 2025
ABSTRACT
Migration is a dynamic global phenomenon shaped by economic, social, and political factors, with profound
impacts on both origin and destination countries. Kerala, known for its high rate of out-migration, particularly
to Gulf countries, has witnessed a notable rise in return migration in recent years, accelerated by the Covid- 19
pandemic and related disruptions. This study aims to examine the trends and patterns of return migration in
Kerala and to analyze its impact on the Kerala economy in the post-pandemic context. The research relies
exclusively on secondary data sourced from the Kerala Migration Survey (KMS) 2023 and earlier rounds,
report from the Department of Non-Resident Keralites Affairs (NORKA), and publications by international
organizations such as the ILO, World Bank, and IOM. The findings indicate that the Covid-19 crisis
significantly accelerated return migration, with job loss and visa expiry as the primary drivers. Returnees have
contributed financial capital, skills, and international exposure to the local economy, offering both
opportunities and challenges for reintegration. However, the state faces structural constraints in effectively
absorbing these returnees into the workforce. While the study highlights key patterns and economic impacts, it
is limited by its reliance on secondary data, which may not fully capture recent developments or the socio-
psychological dimensions of return migration. Overall, the analysis underscores the need for targeted policies
to harness the developmental potential of return migration in Kerala.
Keywords: Return migration, Kerala Economy, Covid-19 pandemic, NORKA, Remittance, Reintegration,
Gulf-Migration
INTRODUCTION
Migration is a global phenomenon that is increasing in size, scope, complexity, and impacts. It is both a causes
and a consequence of broader development process and can be considered a positive force for development.
Today, there are an estimated 281 million migrant workers around the world, accounting for 3.6% of the global
population. Globalization, demographic shifts, conflicts, income inequalities and climate change are
encouraging more workers and their families to cross borders in search of employment and security. These
migrant workers have become whittle source of income, contributing to growth and development in their home
countries. Migration refers to the movement of people from one place to another, with the intentions of settling
permanently or temporarily in a new location or geographic region. Migration is often associated with
improved human capital at both the individual and household levels, as well as better access to migration
networks that can facilitate subsequent moves. People may migrate as individuals, in family units, or in large
groups. There are various ways to categorize international and internal migration, including; internal
migration, external migration, forced migration, seasonal migration, return migration, rural-urban migration,
and counter-urbanization. Migrants can also be broadly categorized into two groups; permanent and
temporary. Permanent migrants intend to establish long term residence in a new country and may eventually
seek citizenship. Temporary migrants, on the other hand, plan to stay only for a limited period- such as for the
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duration of a study program, a work contract, or a specific work season. Both types of migrants have a
significant impact on the economies and societies of the both their destination country of origin.
The reasons for migration vary and are broadly conceptualized into two categories, push and pull factors. Push
factors are reasons that drive people to leave their place of origin conditions that “push “out of an area. These
include poverty, lack of work opportunities, unemployment, under development, and poor economic condition.
Pull factors, on the other hand, are reason that attracts people to a new area conditions that “pull” them toward
a destination. These include employment opportunities, higher income, better working condition, and
improved facilities.
Return migration is defined as the movement of migrants back to their place of origin, driven by factors such
as family reunification, better job opportunities, retirement, heath issues, or a desire to spend their final years
in their homeland. Historically, return migration has been considering the final stage of the migration cycle. It
can have significant impact on both the migrants and the countries involved. For migrants, it may involve
cultural re-adjustment, the re-establishment of social network, and potential economic opportunities. For
countries of origin, return migration can bring back human capital, skills, and resources that contribute to
development and economic growth. However, the processes of return is not always smooth. Migrants may face
challenges in reintegrating into their home societies, such as finding suitable employment, adapting to changes
in the local environment, or dealing with stigma associated with their migration experience. The decision to
return is often shaped by a complex interplay of individual circumstances and broader economic, social, and
political factors. There are three main types of return migrations, such as, Voluntary return migration, Forced
return migration, Seasonal return migration, and Circular migration. Return migration is influenced by a wide
range of factors, including economic, social and cultural ties, political stability, environmental conditions, and
While millions of migrants return to their home countries of origin each year, not all returns are formally
recorded. In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic posed considerable challenges to return migration due to
lockdowns, travel restrictions, limited consular services, and other containment measures. These disruptions
significantly slowed down return activities. In 2021, as many countries lifted travel restrictions, various form
of migration, including return migration, resumed, although not to pre-pandemic levels. In 2022, return
migration had reached pre-pandemic levels once again. The Covid-19 pandemic led to a significant wave of
return migration, particularly among Indian migrant’s workers abroad, with half in Gulf countries. Kerala,
known for high emigration, saw around 14.7 lakh migrant’s return by June 2021, mainly due to job loss and
visa expiry. The Indian government launched the Vande Bharat Mission to help repatriate stranded migrants,
bringing back over 55.9 lakh Indians by mid-2021. Most Keralites returnees came from the UAE, Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, with district like Malappuram, Thiruvananthapuram, and Ernakulum accounting for
the largest shares. While return migration supports economic growth through remittances and skills, it also
brings challenges in reintegration, especially during crises like Covid-19, highlighting the need for better
migration governance and support systems.
Objectives of the Study
To examine the trend and patterns of return migration in Kerala.
To study the impact of return migration in Kerala economy after Covid-19.
METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY
This study is completely based on secondary data which has been collected from Kerala Migration Survey
(KMS) 2023 and previous rounds, conducted by the Center for Development Studies (CDS),
Thiruvananthapuram, and Government of Kerala Economic Review state planning Board, 2022-22, Reports
from NORKA and ILO, for return migration support programs and policy context, and Ministry of External
Affairs (GoI), for migration-related updates, particularly the Vande Bharat Mission.
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REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Prakash B A (2000) did a study with an objective of examining the causes of the departure of emigrants,
profile of emigrants who returned and the economic status of return emigrants. The study was done on a
sample survey of 80 return emigrants in Varkala town and which presented in three sections. The first section
shows the trends in emigration and return emigration, the second section deals with the findings and in the last
section conclusions and policy suggestions are included. The survey findings suggest that the returnees present
employment is in terms of 51 percent were unemployed 36 percent are casually employed and 13 percent are
self-employed ones. For getting reviews on macro-economic changes due to the exodus of emigrants,
information was searched from travel agents, banks, real estate agents and returnees association’s merchants
associations and leading traders in Varkala town. The fall in trade resulted to the decline in the purchasing
power of the people due to the return of large number of emigrants. Overall return of migrants had made an
impact in Varkala town very badly.
Zachariah et al., (2001) developed a study of in return emigrants regarding their occupational mobility,
utilization of their human and material resources in Kerala’s development and their rehabilitation. It features
their demographic, social and economic characteristics before and after emigration including the financial
costs of and benefits from emigration and the problems faced by them in the Gulf countries and in Kerala after
return. A few suggestions for their rehabilitation and their possible role in the development of state are also
included in conclusion part. Findings show that Muslims wants to get assistance from Government mostly in
their re-integration and the single important reason behind why the return emigrants were not able to
rehabilitate themselves was the lack of ability to identify a profile-making self-employment project.
Rajan, S. I. (2020) discussed the significance of large-scale migration surveys in understanding the effect of
Covid-19 viruses on the humanity. Using Kerala as a case study, it emphasized the role of KMS in providing
data on emigrants stock, return emigrants, migration cost and remittance usage since 1998. The research
illustrates how the Kerala Government adeptly utilized this data to control the spread of the pandemic and
address its socio-economic impact on individuals, communities and society. The data also helped in
formulating policies and program and preparing for the integration and rehabilitation of return migrants,
ensuring wellbeing with respect to the pandemic.
A return emigrant survey was conducted in 2021 by Irudaya Rajan and Balasubrahmanyam Pattath. The
survey dealt with a study of different types of return emigrants of Kerala, their job and period of stay in the
host country, emigration expenses expanded and about the final return, process of return, wage theft
experienced by them, remittances sent by them and their future plan.
Data Analysis and Interpretation
Return migration refers to the process by which migrants return to their place of origin or country of
citizenship after spending a period of time living and working abroad or in another region. Return migration
became a prominent issue during and after the Covid-19 pandemic, as thousands of Non-Resident Keralites
(NRKs) returned due to job losses, lockdowns, and health concerns. The study examines the data related to
return migration in Kerala following the Covid-19 pandemic, which is essential for understanding its economic
and social impacts. It presents and analyzes statistical data gathered from various sources, including the Kerala
migration survey and academic studies, to identify key trends and patterns. The study is based on two
objectives, first, to examine the trend and patterns of return migration in Kerala and second to study the effect
of return migration in Kerala economy after Covid-19. The data is presented clearly and concisely using tables
and graphs. Through a detailed exploration of variables such as the number of returnees, change in remittance
inflow, employment status, and socio-economic conditions, this analysis aims to provide evidence-based
insights into how return migration has reshaped Kerala’s labor market, household income structures, and
policy priorities.
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Table 1: Trends in Return Migration, 1998-2023
Year
Estimates
Increase
Percent Increase
1998
739245
--
--
2003
893942
154697
20.9
2008
1157127
263185
29.4
2013
1252471
95344
8.2
2018
1294796
42325
3.4
2023
1790758
495962
38.3
Source: Kerala Migration Survey, 2023
The trends in return migration over the years are depicted in the table. The number of return migration has
shown a steady year-on-year increase from 1998 to 2023. The number rose by 20.9 percent in 2003 and 29.4
percent in 2008, followed by a decline in the rate of increase in 2013 and 2018. However, the largest increase
in return migration was observed between 2018 and 2023, with an increase of 495,962 individuals,
representing a 38.3 percent rise-the highest ever recorded in the history of Kerala Migration Survey. This sharp
increase can be attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic, during which many individuals lost their jobs and were
forced to be return to Kerala.
Table 2: Return Emigrants by Districts, 1998-2023
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
2023
118878
103059
215280
218945
93662
185695
74106
69314
124066
127978
165504
158481
54537
83502
60554
36285
54506
40921
34572
43109
51024
70104
99929
99494
18164
28368
26448
33898
41775
74277
5017
3766
3213
3242
6137
13472
45028
74435
68860
69545
23929
151849
116788
86029
174655
103803
94279
239439
39238
55008
85318
12383
57664
92689
123750
141537
219736
299857
309881
351176
60910
109101
72405
107491
151417
210288
3327
3852
1930
12581
12046
16509
28263
45394
26416
109145
94457
106408
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16667
47468
27222
47212
89610
50062
739245
893942
1157127
1252471
1294796
1790758
Source: Kerala Migration Survey, 2023
Table 2 provides data on the number of return emigrants across various districts of Kerala from 1998 to 2023.
The overall trend indicates a steady increase in return migration, rising from 739,245 in 1998 to 1,790,758 in
2023. Districts such as Thiruvananthapuram, Ernakulum, and Malappuram have shown consistent growth in
the number of return migrants over the years. In 2023, the number of return migrants has increased in all
districts compared to 2018; except Kollam, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta and Kasargode.
Trissur district experienced a significant increase in return migrants from 2008 to 2013, followed by a slight
decrease in 2018, and then a substantial rise by 2023. Similarly, Ernakulum saw a declining trend in return
migrants from 2003, but recorded a substantial increase by 2023. However, Kasaragod district witnessed a
notable increase in return migrants from 2003 to 2008, followed by a decline in 2013, with further decrease in
2018 and 2023.
Table 3: Return migrants, by year of return
Year
Percent
Before 1980
0.2
1981-1989
1.8
1990-1999
7.2
2000-2004
5.2
2005-2009
9.1
2010-2014
18.1
2015-2019
30.9
2020-2023
27.5
Total
100
Source: Kerala Migration Survey, 2023
Table 3 provides an overview of the year of return, spanning from before 1980 to 2023. The frequency of
return migrants varies across the years. From before 1980 to 2010, the trend of return was moderate. However,
in 2019 and the years following the Covid-19 pandemic, the frequency shows a significant increase.
Table 4: Return migration rate by sex, 2023
Sex
Percentage
Male
88.5
Female
11.5
Total
100.0
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Source: Kerala Migration Survey, 2023
Table 4 highlights the distribution of return emigrant’s by gender, showing that males constituted a
significantly larger proportion compared to females, with 88.5 percent for males and 11.5 percent for females.
This indicates the prevailing gender norms among return emigrants in the context of Kerala, where migration
continues to be more accessible to men.
This significant difference reflects the broader migration profile of Kerala, where international labor migration
particularly to gulf countries, is historically dominated by men employed mainly in sectors such as
construction, transport, and low-skilled services. In contrast, women migrants from Kerala constitute a
relatively smaller share, often working in domestic work, nursing, and healthcare sectors, which were less
several disrupted or offered more job security during the pandemic.
Table 5: Reason for Return, 2023
Reason for Return
Percent
To retire
12.1
Home sickness
10.2
To care for elderly
7.9
To care for children
9.8
Accomplished goals for migration
4.4
Prefer to working in Kerala
16.1
Lost job/Laid off
18.4
Illness/Accident
11.2
Expiry of contracts
5.3
Due to Covid-19
6.4
Compulsory expatriation
0.7
Low wages
13.8
Poor working conditions
7.5
Nationalization issue
0.9
Visiting visa expired
2.8
Cancellation of employment visa
2.8
Political instability/Economic instability/War
0.8
To migrate to another destination or same destination for different job
1.1
Others (Specify)
5.4
Total
100
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Source: Kerala Migration Survey, 2023
The table shows that people from Kerala returned home for many different reasons after Covid-19. The most
common reason was losing their job or being laid off (18.4 percent), which happened mainly because of the
pandemics impacts on business abroad. Many returnees (16.1 percent) said they preferred to work in Kerala,
showing that some wanted to stay closer to family or saw new opportunities at home. Others came back
because of low wages (13.8 percent) or health issues and accidents (11.2 percent). A smaller number returned
due to poor working conditions (7.5 percent), contract expiry (5.3 percent), or because they felt they had
achieved their migration goals (4.4 percent). Only 6.4 percent were of the opinion that Covid-19 itself was the
direct reason for their return.
Overall the table shows that return migration was caused by a mix of job loss, low wages, family needs, health
issues, and the pandemics impact. This means support programs in Kerala should consider all these different
reasons to help returnees reintegrate better.
Table 6: Economic impacts of Pre- Covid and Post- Covid Pandemic
Indicator
Pre-Covid-19
Post-Covid-19
Total remittances to Kerala
(INR crore)
85,000 (2018)
72,000 (2023)
Share of households receiving
remittances
38 percent (2018)
26 percent (2023)
Unemployment rate (Kerala)
9 percent (2018)
12.5 percent (2023)
Average monthly household
income (with returnees)
Increased post-return in some
families
Decrease in household-level
remittance dependency, slight
diversification into local
income sources.
KMS 2018&2023, and Economic Review 2022-23
The analysis employs descriptive trend analysis based on Kerala Migration Survey (KMS) tables, comparing
pre-Covid-19 (2018) and post-Covid-19 (2023) indicators to identify changes in remittances, household receipt
rates, and related economic effects.
Table 6 presents the economic impacts of the pre-covid-19 and post-covid-19 periods. The total remittances to
Kerala declined from 85,000 crores in 2018 to 72,000 crores in 2023, reflecting the pandemic’s significant
effect on the state’s large migrant population, particularly those employed in Gulf countries. The share of
households receiving remittances fell from 38 percent to 26 percent over the same periods. This indicates not
only a reduction in overall remittances inflows but also a contraction in the proportion of households
benefiting directly. These shifts highlight the vulnerability of remittance-dependent households during global
economic disruptions.
Kerala’s unemployment rate increased notably from 9 percent in 2018 to 12.5 percent in 2023. The rise can be
attributed partly to the influx of return migrants re-entering the local labor market, combined with broader
economic disruptions that limited job creation. This points to structural challenges in absorbing returnees into
productive employment within the state.
In families with returnees, there was an increase in average monthly household income due to the initial
capital, skills, or business ventures brought back by return migrants. Simultaneously, there was a decrease in
household-level remittance dependency, reflecting a shift towards more diversified local income sources, such
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as small businesses, self-employment, or local jobs. This diversification, though modest, highlights the
potential developmental benefits of return migration if adequately supported by policy interventions.
There are sectoral impacts in the form of returnees invested savings in small business, retail shops,
construction, and transport (auto/taxi services).Increase in demand for skill development and re-integration
support programmes (NORKA, Kudumbashree).Skill and human capital impacts are like many return migrants
brought back skills in construction, hospitality, IT, and mechanical trades. Some started small enterprises-
contributed to local economic activity. Overall, while return migration after Covid-19 lowered remittance
inflows and increased unemployment, it also led to new entrepreneurial activities, skills transfer, and human
capital gains that could contribute to Kerala’s economic resilience and long-term development.
CONCLUSION
Migration is an ongoing social-global phenomenon. People move to other region for various reasons, often
driven by the need for their survival and better opportunities. Many emigrants from Kerala moved to the Gulf
countries with hopes of a better, and more peaceful life. Initially, migration brought positive changes-steady
employment, regular income, and improved living conditions. However, over time, unexpected developments
in the Gulf altered this trajectory. Factors such as nationalization policies, fluctuating oil prices, economic
slowdowns, and the sudden blow of the Covid-19 pandemic forced many to return home to Kerala. Although
some returnees came back with improved housing or durable assets, these alone do not guarantee a secure or
steady livelihood. Possessing such assets doesn’t necessarily equate to financial stability. In fact, many
returnees now face difficulties finding employment or remain jobless, resulting in a fragile and uncertain
socio-economic situation.
In short, many returnees are struggling with the challenges of rehabilitation. While they wish to live peacefully
with their families in Kerala, the circumstances often don’t support these aspirations. A significant number of
returnees feel dissatisfied with their return and express a strong desire to re-migrate to the Gulf. Although
Kerala provide a wealth of educational opportunities for children, it continues to fall short in offering sufficient
employment opportunities. As a result, many are completed to seek work elsewhere, continuing to contribute
to the state’s economy through remittances. After spending many years working abroad, returnees deserve a
comfortable and dignified retirement in their homeland. This reflects the current reality in Kerala. There is an
urgent need to reform the core structure of migration governance in the state. Both the central and state
Governments must recognize that reintegration is a shared responsibility. They should collaborate to
implement supportive programs, enhance data sharing, and share the financial burden of reintegration
initiatives.
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