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Trend and Spatial Geographical Distribution of the Reemergence of
Diphtheria in Plateau State, North-Central Nigeria
Adegwu O. Lewis, A.I. Akyala, A.I & Ngwai. Y.B
Department of Public Health, Global Health and Infectious Disease Institute, University, Keffi,
Nasarawa State, Nigeria
DOI: https://doi.org/10.51244/IJRSI.2025.120800083
Received: 23 Aug 2025; Accepted: 30 Aug 2025; Published: 06 September 2025
ABSTRACT
Background: Diphtheria, an infectious disease caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae, is a major worldwide
health problem due to its high incidence and prevalence, especially among children. Nigeria is among the
African countries with the highest reported cases in the North-central geopolitical zone, with Plateau State
being particularly affected.
Objective: This study aimed to identify Diphtheria trends and spatial geographic distribution in Plateau State,
Nigeria.
Methodology: The study used a retrospective cross-sectional and ecological design to understand the temporal
trends and spatial distribution of diphtheria cases across Plateau State from January 2015 to December 2024.
The sample size was determined by the number of diphtheria cases reported by the WHO from 2015 to 2024.
Purposive sampling was used based on the location of suspected, confirmed, and death cases in 17 Local
Government Areas (LGAs). Data was extracted from WHO databases and visualised using ArcGIS software.
The study adhered to ethical guidelines, ensuring unbiased analysis and open disclosure. Data were analysed
using SPSS 25.0 and ArcGIS, and the Chi-square test was used to examine the relationship between LGAs and
classification and vaccination at a significance level of 0.05.
Results: The study revealed that Kenam had the highest incidence of suspected, confirmed, and fatal cases
among the 441 LGAs, followed by Barkin-Ladi and Jos-North. The lowest incidence was found in Jos-East,
Kanke, and Langtang-South. The most confirmed cases were found in Kenam, followed by Jos-East, Kanke,
and Langtang-South. The research also found a significant correlation between local government areas and
diphtheria incidences, with 59.2% of Kanam's population vaccinated.
Conclusion: There is a significant trend and spread of suspected cases of Diphtheria in Plateau State, with a
few confirmed cases. Kanem LGA recorded high suspicion, confirmed, vaccinated, and uncertainty about
people's vaccinated status. It is therefore recommended that WHO and PSHMB take prompt action by
immunising those who are not afflicted, educating the public about diphtheria symptoms, re-introducing
booster shots, identifying symptomatic individuals early, and reducing geographic spread factors.
Keywords: Diphtheria, confirmed, Plateau State, suspected, trend, vaccinated, LGAs
INTRODUCTION
Diphtheria, an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Corynebacterium diphtheriae, is a major worldwide
health problem due to its high incidence and prevalence, especially among children (Atete et al., 2024;
Harapan et al., 2019; CDCP, 2024). Despite vaccine efforts, the disease remains a concern in areas with
limited healthcare facilities and low vaccination coverage (WHO, 2017). Diphtheria creates a potent exotoxin
that causes a thick, greyish film in the throat and upper respiratory tract, causing both local tissue destruction
and systemic consequences such as myocarditis, neuropathy, and respiratory failure. The disease is highly
contagious but preventable. It typically affects the pharynx, tonsils, and nose, but it can also injure essential
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organs such as the heart, kidneys, and nervous system (Adegboye et al., 2023; Bawa, Olumuyiwa & Ibrahim,
2020; Atere et al., 2024).
Diphtheria was a significant cause of infant mortality in the early 20th century, particularly in temperate
regions (Ahmed et al., 2023). The diphtheria incidence rate in Canada was 98 per 100,000 in 1924 and
decreased to approximately 0 per 100,000 by 1969 following the vaccine's introduction in 1926. In 1940, the
annual incidence of diphtheria in England and Wales was over 61,000, with 3,283 fatalities. According to the
World Health Organisation (WHO, 2020), the annual global incidence was approximately 100,000 in 1980, but
it experienced a precipitous decline to 10,000 by 2010. Nevertheless, in the past decade, numerous outbreaks
have occurred in Nigeria and South Africa, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Lao PDR, the Philippines, Vietnam, the
border between Bangladesh and Myanmar, Brazil, Colombia, Haiti, Venezuela, Madagascar, and Yemen. An
attempt to eliminate diphtheria, particularly in Africa, is a significant challenge. This endemic is one of the
causes of morbidity and mortality in developing nations (Rintani et al., 2018). As of October 9, 2023, 14,587
instances were documented in four African Union Member States, with Nigeria accounting for more than 90%
(CDCP, 2024). The outbreaks have affected people from other countries without prior vaccines, with more
than 65% of cases having no vaccination record. Women account for 62% of cases, and socioeconomic
differences add to the burden of diphtheria. Outbreaks are frequently related to overcrowded living
circumstances, poor hygiene standards, and impediments to healthcare access. Nigeria reported 493 cases of
diphtheria in Lagos and Kano due to inadequate pentavalent vaccine coverage, poor sanitation, and
surveillance systems (NCDC, 2023). There were 31,129 documented suspected cases of diphtheria in 36 states,
encompassing 318 local government areas (LGAs). Out of them, 18,250 (59%) were verified, resulting in 863
fatalities. Of the verified instances, 369 (2%) were identified by laboratory testing, 515 (3%) through
epidemiological linkage, and 17,366 (95%) through clinical compatibility (WHO, 2023; NCDC, 2024). The
national trend is declining. The case fatality ratio (CFR) for suspected patients was 8%. There were 7,086
suspected cases, with 4,185 (59%) confirmed and 76 fatalities. Nearly 99% of known cases originated from
Kano, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi, and Katsina; 60% of the confirmed patients are female, and 26% are completely
vaccinated (WHO, 2023, and NCDC, 2024).
Diphtheria cases worldwide have declined since 2000, with the highest total recorded in 2017 at 8,819
(Harapan et al., 2019; CDCP, 2024; Aborode et al., 2023). The global average of yearly cases during the last
5-year interval was 6,582, reflecting a 37% rise from the preceding 5-year average of 4,809 cases between
2008 and 2012 (WHO, 2020). The Southeast Asia region consistently reports the majority of worldwide
diphtheria cases annually. In the European Region, the incidence dropped by 95%, from 1.82 cases per million
people in 2000 to 0.07 cases per million population in 2009. 85% of cases originated from Russia and Ukraine.
However, Latvia, with a population of under two million, recorded the highest yearly incidence from 2000 to
2009 (Wagner, 2015). Diphtheria has been recorded at 29.9% of cases in the African region from 2013 to 2022
(WHO, 2024). The majority of African nations have inadequate DTP3 vaccination coverage. Starting in July
2023, at least five African countries (Guinea, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and South Africa) have reported an
atypical surge in diphtheria cases and are now facing active epidemics. Nigeria experienced a diphtheria
epidemic in 2019, with over 20,000 cases, despite the World Health Organisation's prediction of a decrease in
infections from 100,000 in 1980 to fewer than 10,000 in 2021. The Nigerian Centre for Disease Control
reported a diphtheria epidemic in four of Nigeria's 36 states, with 128 confirmed cases and 38 deaths (NCDC,
2023). This outbreak occurred within 18 days of 189 fatalities attributed to Lassa fever and 63 instances of
Lassa fever among healthcare practitioners in 2022 (WHO, 2023). As of February 14, there were 216 reported
instances of diphtheria, resulting in 40 fatalities in less than a month (WHO, 2024). The NCDC reported 523
suspected cases across Kano, Yobe, Katsina, Lagos, and Osun states. Kano had the highest number of
suspected cases (396), followed by Yobe with 78 and Katsina with 34 (Ikejezie et al., 2023). The World Health
Organisation rated Nigeria's 2020-2024 data as the fourth highest, indicating a diphtheria reemergence in the
country (WHO, 2024).
Table 1: Nigeria Reported Cases of Diphtheria from 1975-2024 (WHO)
Period
Confirmed Cases
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2020-2024
2015-2019
2010-2014
2005-2009
2000-2004
1995-1999
1990-1994
1985-1989
1980-1984
1975-1979
5341
4159
0
312
7253
2753
9479
11551
2144
2144
Source: extracted from the WHO report 2024
Table 2: Distribution of diphtheria cases and deaths in Nigeria, epi-week 19 2022 - epi-Week 48 2023
North-Central State
Suspected Cases
Death among Confirmed Cases
Plateau
Nasarawa
Niger
Benue
Kogi
Kwara
66
7
11
0
36
1
15
1
0
0
0
0
Source: Extracted from the WHO report 2024
The WHO report (2024) revealed the distribution of diphtheria in North-Central Nigeria from epi-week 19,
2022, to epi-week 48, 2023. Plateau State had the highest suspected cases, 66, the highest confirmed cases, and
the highest deaths among confirmed cases. This necessitated the observation of each LGA in the state to
understand the trend of diphtheria.
Plateau State, located in north-central Nigeria, has a history of vaccine-preventable diseases due to socio-
political difficulties, inadequate healthcare infrastructure, and restricted vaccination coverage. The World
Health Organisation attributes diphtheria epidemics in Nigeria and Plateau to inadequate vaccination rates,
especially in northern and rural areas. In these areas, diphtheria cases are frequently underreported due to
insufficient monitoring and diagnostic facilities, complicating the determination of correct prevalence
estimates. Research by Ibrahim et al. (2022) revealed that diphtheria incidence in Plateau State predominantly
affects children under 15 years old, who are particularly susceptible to inadequate vaccination regimens. The
research identified a link between outbreaks and population migrations, especially among internally displaced
persons (IDPs) escaping conflict, which has hindered vaccination initiatives (Ibrahim et al., 2022). The Case
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Fatality Rate (CFR) of diphtheria in Plateau State is increasing due to treatment delays, inadequate healthcare
infrastructure, and the absence of diphtheria antitoxin (DAT), which is essential for efficient disease
management (Olulaja et al., 2023). A study from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) (2020)
indicated that Plateau State had a fatality rate of roughly 10% for recorded diphtheria cases, underscoring the
necessity for further public health interventions and vaccination initiatives. This serves as the basis for
undertaking a diphtheria trend and spatial geographic study in Plateau State.
METHODOLOGY
Study area
Plateau State is situated in the North Central Region of Nigeria, positioned between latitudes 8.371° N and
10.301° N and longitudes 7.401° E and 8.371° E. Plateau State was delineated from Benue-Plateau State in
1979. A subsequent division occurred in 1996 when Nassarawa State was established, after forming other
states in Nigeria. The state borders Bauchi State to the north, Taraba State to the east, Nassarawa State to the
south, and Kaduna State to the west. The state encompasses an area of 26,901 square kilometres (Timothy,
2006). Plateau State has 17 Local Government Areas: Barkin Ladi, Bassa, Bokkos, Jos East, Jos North, Jos
South, Kanam, Kanke, Langtang North, Langtang South, Mangu, Mikang, Pankshin, Qu'an-Pan, Riyom,
Shendam, and Wase (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Nigeria showing Plateau State
Study Design
The study employed a retrospective cross-sectional and ecological design using secondary data from the World
Health Organisation (WHO) surveillance reports. The design was suitable for understanding the temporal
trends and spatial distribution pattern of diphtheria cases across Plateau State, from January 2015 to December
2024.
Study Population/Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria
The population of the study is the precise and target population considered for the research. For this study, all
suspected and confirmed diphtheria cases reported in Plateau State at the time of investigation were included
with the following inclusion criteria:
i. Cases reported between 2015 and 2024
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ii. Suspected and confirmed diphtheria cases from WHO (clinical and laboratory confirmed)
iii. Vaccinated and unvaccinated persons’ records
iv. Geographic locations
While exclusion includes
i. Cases outside the geographical location of Plateau State
ii. Missing demographic information
iii. Cases outside Diphtheria
Sample size
The study was based on secondary data; therefore, the sample size was determined by the number of diphtheria
cases reported by the WHO from 2015 to 2024. A record of 441 suspected, confirmed, and fatal cases was
considered the sample size.
Sampling Technique
The study used purposeful sampling based on the geographical location of suspected, confirmed, and death
cases of diphtheria in the 17 LGAs.
Instrument and Method of Data Collection
Data was extracted from the WHO databases of the Plateau State office between 2015 and 2024 based on a
design template using Microsoft Excel for weekly epidemiological records, outbreaks of diseases, and disease
surveillance (IDSR). Secondly, ArcGIS (GIS) software was used to visualise the spatial distribution of
diphtheria cases in the state. Data were retrieved on suspected and confirmed death cases, as well as
vaccination coverage areas, afterwards.
Ethics
The study adheres to ethical guidelines by relying on pre-approved WHO data, respecting anonymity, and
ensuring unbiased analysis. However, open disclosure of limits, accurate data attribution, and avoiding
damaging misunderstandings that can influence public health regulations or opinion are all necessary for
ethical rigour.
Data analysis and measurement of variables
The data collected were analysed using SPSS 25.0 and the ArcGIS application to study the trend and spatial
distribution of diphtheria in Plateau State. Simple descriptive statistics were used, and the results were
presented in tabular form and maps. Chi-square was used to test the relationship among LGAs against
classification and vaccination at 0.05.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
According to Table 3, the distribution of diphtheria cases among LGAs shows that Kenam has the highest
number of suspected cases, with approximately 155 cases, followed by Barkin-Ladi with 62 cases, and Jos-
North with 38 cases. The least were found in Jos-East, Kanke and Langtang-South with only three reported
cases. Cases reported to be confirmed after laboratory examination were found to have 99 cases in Kanam and
only 3 in Jos-North, while death cases among all the LGAs were found to have 7 in Kanam, 6 in Jos-North, 5
in Barkin-Ladi and 2 in Langtang-South, with only 1 in Kanke and Langtang-North, respectively.
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Table 3: Distribution of Suspected, Confirmed and Death Cases of Diphtheria in Plateau State LGAs 2023-
2024
Local Government Area
LGAs
Suspected Cases
Confirmed Cases
Death Cases among
Suspected & Confirmed
Cases
Barkin-Ladi
62
-
5
Bassa
7
-
Bokkos
20
-
Jos-East
3
-
Jos-North
38
3
6
Jos-South
11
-
Kenam
155
99
7
Kanke
3
-
1
Langtang North
17
-
1
Langtang South
3
-
2
Mangu
28
-
-
Mikang
9
-
-
Pankshin
17
-
-
Riyom
15
-
-
Shendam
29
-
-
Wase
24
-
-
Total
441
102
22
Source: WHO (2024)
It is diagrammatically represented through ArcGIS in the Maps below
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Figure 2: Diphtheria Suspected Cases in LGAs of Plateau State
Figure 3: Diphtheria Confirmed Cases in LGAs of Plateau State
Figure 4: Diphtheria Cases of Death among the LGAs of Plateau State.
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Diphtheria classification cases based on LGAs in Table 4 reveal the following: 14.1% of suspected cases in
Barkin-Ladi, 1.6% not yet classified, 14.3% not a case, and 1.6% suspected cases in Bassa. Additionally, there
are 4.5% suspected cases against 21.4%, and 1.9% not a case, as well as confirmed cases in Bokkos. However,
35.1% of suspected cases in Kanam were recorded, the highest, followed by 14.1% suspected cases in Barkin-
Ladi and 6.6% suspected cases in Shendam. At the same time, the least were Jos-East, Kanke, and Langtang-
South, with 0.7%. The confirmed cases were only in Kanam, with 95.2%; Jos-North, 2.9%; and Bokkos, 1.9%.
Jos-South has the highest non-case rate, with 42.9%, followed by Bokkos, 21.4%, and Bassa and Jos-North,
14.3%. For the not yet classified, Pankshin has the highest with 79.7%, then Jos-North with 12.5%, and
Langtang-North with 4.7%. Of the probable cases, only Jos-North has 100%, while the others have none. This
indicates that a high number of suspected and confirmed cases were found in Kenam, with no cases in Jos-
South, no cases yet classified in Pankshin, and a probable case in Jos-North. This also shows the relationship
between LGAs and cases of diphtheria in the study, with a chi-square result revealing a strong significance at
0.05 (2 = 0.000; 500.112).
Table 4: Distribution of Diphtheria Classification Cases and LGAs in Plateau State
Total
Confirmed
Cases
Not a case
Not yet
classified
Probable
case
Suspect case
Barkin-Ladi
0
0
1
0
62
63
0.0%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
14.1%
10.1%
Bassa
0
2
0
0
7
9
0.0%
14.3%
0.0%
0.0%
1.6%
1.4%
Bokkos
2
3
0
0
20
25
1.9%
21.4%
0.0%
0.0%
4.5%
4.0%
Jos-East
0
0
0
0
3
3
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.5%
Jos-North
3
2
8
2
38
53
2.9%
14.3%
12.5%
100.0%
8.6%
8.5%
Jos-South
0
6
0
0
11
17
0.0%
42.9%
0.0%
0.0%
2.5%
2.7%
Kenam
99
0
0
0
155
254
95.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
35.1%
40.6%
Kanke
0
0
0
0
3
3
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.5%
Langtang-
North
0
0
3
0
17
20
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0.0%
0.0%
4.7%
0.0%
3.9%
3.2%
Langtang-
South
0
0
1
0
3
4
0.0%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
0.7%
0.6%
Mangu
0
1
0
0
28
29
0.0%
7.1%
0.0%
0.0%
6.3%
4.6%
Mikang
0
0
0
0
9
9
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.0%
1.4%
Pankshin
0
0
51
0
17
68
0.0%
0.0%
79.7%
0.0%
3.9%
10.9%
Riyom
0
0
0
0
15
15
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.4%
2.4%
Shendam
0
0
0
0
29
29
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6.6%
4.6%
Wase
0
0
0
0
24
24
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.4%
3.8%
Total
104
14
64
2
441
625
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Source: WHO (2024) X2= 0.000; (645.388)
Table 5 presents the diphtheria cases against vaccination in LGAs of Plateau State. The vaccination rates were
59.2% in Kanam, 9.6% in Shendam, and 8.8% in Barkin-Ladi, out of a total of 260 individuals in the study. In
contrast, Kanam had 45% for the unvaccinated, followed by Wase with 30% and Langtang-North with 11.7%.
The unknown category represented individuals who did not know whether they were vaccinated, with Kenem
reported to have the highest rate at 71.4%, followed by Barkin-Ladi at 17.9%. This indicates that Kanam has
the highest number of individuals who are either vaccinated, unvaccinated, or uncertain about their vaccination
status. However, the chi-square result is statistically significant at 0.05 (χ2 = 0.000; df = 1).
Table 5: Distribution of Diphtheria Cases in LGAs against Vaccination in Plateau State
LGAs
Unknown
Unvaccinated
Vaccinated
Total
Barkin Ladi
15
3
23
41
17.9%
5.0%
8.8%
10.1%
Bassa
0
0
3
3
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0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
1.4%
Bokkos
0
2
8
10
0.0%
3.3%
3.1%
4.0%
Jos East
0
0
3
3
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
0.5%
Jos North
0
0
5
5
0.0%
0.0%
1.9%
8.5%
Jos South
1
1
9
11
1.2%
1.7%
3.5%
2.7%
Kanam
60
27
154
241
71.4%
45.0%
59.2%
40.6%
Kanke
0
0
3
3
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
0.5%
Langtang North
4
7
2
13
4.8%
11.7%
0.8%
3.2%
Langtang South
0
0
3
3
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
0.6%
Mangu
0
2
7
8
0.0%
3.3%
2.7%
4.6%
Mikang
0
0
7
7
0.0%
0.0%
2.7%
1.4%
Pankshin
0
0
5
5
0.0%
0.0%
1.9%
10.9%
Riyom
4
0
3
7
4.8%
0.0%
1.2%
2.4%
Shendam
0
0
25
25
0.0%
0.0%
9.6%
4.6%
Wase
0
18
0
18
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0.0%
30.0%
0.0%
3.8%
Total
84
60
260
403
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Source: WHO (2024) 2 = 0.000; 500.112
CONCLUSION
The study indicates that among the 17 LGAs, Kenam had the highest incidence of suspected, confirmed, and
fatal cases, followed by Barkin-Ladi with 62 cases and Jos-North with 38 instances. The lowest incidence was
recorded in Jos-East, Kanke, and Langtang-South, each reporting only 3 cases. The most confirmed cases were
identified in Kenam, followed by Jos-East, Kanke, and Langtang-South. Diphtheria cases were classified in
many LGAs, and the most confirmed cases were recorded in Kanam, Jos-North, and Bokkos. Jos-South
recorded one of the highest percentages of non-cases. The research revealed a significant correlation between
local government areas and diphtheria incidences, with 59.2% of the population in Kanam vaccinated.
In comparison, the highest rates of unvaccinated persons were observed in Kanam (45%), Wase (30%), and
Langtang-North (11.7%). A strong positive significance at 0.05 was observed among the LGAs. Since
diphtheria is contagious and the outbreak is intensifying, immediate intervention through vaccination of those
unaffected was suggested to the WHO and PSHMB to curtail the spread of diphtheria in Plateau State, Nigeria,
Africa, and the world. Furthermore, public enlightenment about the signs and symptoms of diphtheria, re-
introducing booster vaccinations through door-to-door immunisation for immunocompromised individuals,
facilitating early identification of symptomatic individuals, and enhancing contact tracing are crucial measures.
Additionally, the government, global partners, and individuals should mitigate factors contributing to the
geographical spread of diphtheria.
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