Agricultural Output and Insecurity in Nigeria

Agricultural Output and Insecurity in Nigeria

Ewubare, D. B., Momodu A. A. and Adiele L. J.

Department of Economics, Rivers State University Port Harcourt, Nigeria

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.807027

Received: 12 June 2024; Accepted: 26 June 2024; Published: 27 July 2024

ABSTRACT

The study investigated the effect of insecurity on Agricultural output in Nigeria from 1990-2022. Secondary data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin of 2021 was used for the study. The main analytical techniques used were the unit root tests, con- integration and error correction mechanism. The outcome of the unit root tests revealed that all the series are all stationery at I (I). This necessitated the use of error correction mechanism (ECM) for data estimation. Normality test, auto correlation test, serial correlation test and heteroskedasticity test were also carried out. These tests proved that the model employed was fit. The Co-integration results showed there is stable long run relationship between variables used in the model. The findings from the short run estimation (ECM) revealed that internal security expenditure exert positive and significant impact on agricultural output, while Nigeria crime rate and Nigeria terrorism index exert a negative and significant impact on agriculture output in Nigeria. Therefore, the study concludes that insecurity impacts negatively on agriculture output in Nigeria. It is recommended that government increases investment in the real sectors of agriculture and manufacturing towards the creation of employment to absorb the growing population of unemployed active youth to help reduce their involvement in various crimes and social vices. The study further recommended the need to strengthen the military and Para military sectors to secure nation’s internal and external borders against the influx of terrorists to increase domestic investment as well as attract foreign direct investment into the agricultural sector of Nigeria.

Key Words: Agricultural Outputs, Insecurity, Crime Rate, Terrorism Index, Internal Security Expenditure

INTRODUCTION

Despite the growing significance of Nigeria’s dependence on oil, its economy remains predominantly rural. Agriculture positively impacts on Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), total exports, and employment of the bulk of the workforce. Present data suggests that agriculture remains responsible for above 40% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and provides employment possibilities, both formal and informal, to over 60% of Nigeria’s population of 211 million inhabitants. Agriculture constituted 41.1% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) in 2001. Between 1990 and 2001, the average productivity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in different agricultural sectors was as follows: crops at 259 million naira, livestock at 251 million naira, fisheries at 90 million naira, and forestry at 129 million naira (Afuwape 2014). Considering the level of performance, it is anticipated that the government will give priority to the agricultural sector and actively endorse initiatives, namely in terms of financing and guaranteeing the safety and security of farmers. Jaja (2001) argues that the lack of security hinders individuals from fulfilling their basic requirements, such as food, shelter, and clothes. Socio-economic progress cannot be achieved in an environment that cannot ensure the safety of life and property. Insecurity refers to the lack of measures to protect against criminal activity and the absence of freedom from physical harm (Beland, 2005). Put simply, insecurity refers to a deficiency in safeguarding oneself from mental suffering. A person suffering from insecurity experiences social exclusion and lacks the independence to fully realize their capabilities. Moreover, fear is an enduring presence. A study was undertaken by Achumba and Ighomereho in 2013. Feelings of insecurity hinder an individual’s perception of forthcoming events and their capacity to avert them. In the last two decades, Nigeria has seen multiple crises and security challenges, particularly in rural regions where agriculture serves as the predominant profession. These crises materialized in abductions in several regions of the Nigeria, especially in the South East, from 2009 to 2012. During this period, there was a significant increase in Boko Haram attacks in the North East, farmers and herdsmen conflict in the North Central, Middle Belt, and South East regions, communal conflicts, presence of unidentified armed individuals in the South East, insurgencies in the Niger Delta, ritualistic murders, politically motivated killings, religious extremism, explosions in oil pipelines, excessive use of force by security services, peaceful protests that turned violent, and various other forms of civil unrest. Around 60% of these crises happened in rural areas with a predominant focus on agriculture. As a result, the government has increased the allocation of monies in its budget for security. Numerous farmers have evacuated their residences and escaped to ensure their survival (Mohammed 2015), but some, particularly young individuals, have perished. The persistent dispute between farmers and ranchers has severely devastated a considerable amount of farmland. Some entrepreneurs who initially entered the field of agriculture to guarantee food sufficiency and create job possibilities are now reevaluating their continued participation in commercial farming owing to concerns regarding volatility. There has been a decrease in agricultural production, leading to a rise in food prices and difficulties in delivering the food to metropolitan areas. Considering the circumstances, it is imperative to undertake a comprehensive investigation on the impact of insecurity on agricultural productivity in Nigeria.

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Theoretical framework

2.1.1 The Elite Theory of Insecurity

The Elite theory emerged from the works of Mosca (1939) as a counter to Karl Marx’s notions of power and the state, as well as Abraham Lincoln’s perspectives on democracy (Epstein, 2011). The fundamental premise of elite theory is the division of human society into two main factions: the governing elite and the broader populace. The former group constitutes a minority, whereas the latter group comprises the majority. Nevertheless, the minority faction exercises power and inappropriately distributes the state’s resources, causing harm to the governed. Mosca (1939) ascribed the elites’ ability to control authority mostly to the internal configuration of the elite class, which allows them to unite as a cohesive and unified minority against the generally unorganized and easily swayed masses. Mosca (1939) refers to the scholarly contributions made by Vilfredo Pareto in the year 1963.The elite thesis offers a perspective on the exercise of authority, which has led to conflicts within Nigeria’s military and political establishments. The ruling elite, empowered by political authority, has been able to freely misappropriate funds allocated for national development, greatly harming the general population. This illustrates that the failure of economic, educational, social, technological, and familial institutions can be attributed to inefficient leadership. Consequently, this results in both violent and nonviolent disputes that have negative effects for national development.

2.1.2 Relative Deprivation Theory of Insecurity

Relative deprivation theory is a modern idea in the social sciences that is linked to poverty and social discrimination. The theory in question originates from ancient Greece and is primarily attributed to Gurr (1970). According to Aristotle’s principle, revolutions are driven by a perception of inequality rather than an objective measure. Gurr (1970) posits that cooperative dissatisfaction arises when there is a gap between expected and actual well-being, rather than a complete lack of well-being. Therefore, it can be deduced that the frustration-aggression mechanism is the main factor that triggers the violent inclination in humans, as the resulting anger compels individuals to engage in aggressive actions, regardless of the means used. Obah-Akpowoghaha (2013), offers a definition of the conditions necessary for “relative” deprivation. According to this theory, individual A must have object X, desire to have X, be aware of others who have X, and believe that obtaining X is possible.

2.2 Conceptual framework

2.2.1 The Concept of Agricultural Output

Obayori (2014) defines agricultural output as the aggregate value of prices of quantities used for planting and feed formulation of different agricultural produce produced in a specific year, excluding quantities used as seed and feed, which are also weighted in the same manner. In addition, he suggests that the progress of the agricultural sector can be measured by its development in relation to the total economy. The agricultural sector’s production is categorized into specific components, including grains, cattle, fisheries, agroforestry, apiculture, and food processing.

Throughout history, multiple Nigerian governments have struggled with the challenging issue of agriculture in the country. Agriculture was the hub of the Nigerian economy until the early 1970s, when it was replaced by oil. Although crude oil has gained recent importance in the Nigerian economy, agriculture remains a substantial contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with around 41.1% of the total GDP in 2001. Between 1990 and 2001, the mean productivity or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the several agricultural components was as follows: The allocation for agriculture is 259 million naira, livestock is allocated 251 million naira, fisheries is allocated 90 million naira, and forestry is allocated 129 million naira. The observed ranges for the same time period were as follows: agricultural—87 million naira; livestock—160 million naira; fishing—54.5 million naira; and forestry—23.8 million naira (CBN Bulletin 2001, various topics).

2.2.2 Concept of Insecurity

“Insecurity” is the term used to describe a state characterized by frequent exposure to dread, threat, danger, unwanted advances, coercion, and persistent harassment, among other factors. According to Ajodo et al. (2014), insecurity can be seen as a threat to the nation-state, which often leads to the acquisition of weapons and nuclear capabilities in order to protect the state. Saliu et al. (2007) argue that human life is at risk not only in situations involving violent conflicts, but also in diverse non-conflict contexts. Insecurity can be defined as a state of apprehension or any event that causes dread, harm, hurt, or destruction, either directly or indirectly to an individual, group, or nation.

Insecurity, as described by Beland (2005), refers to a state of worry or anxiety that arises from the perception or reality of being unprotected. It refers to a lack or insufficient level of protection against danger. The term shows physical insecurity that is major noticeable sign of insecurity. Moreover, it has a role in fostering various other types of insecurity, like economic and social insecurity. In this study, insecurity is defined as a situation when the safety and well-being of a nation, both at an individual and national level, are put at risk by internal or external forces or interests. This is further worsened by the insufficient conditions for economic, military, and human resource development of the individuals responsible.

According to the UNDP (1994), human insecurity is caused by the lack of protection against dangers such as starvation, illness, and oppression. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has categorized insecurity into seven discrete classifications: (1) economic insecurity; (2) food insecurity; (3) health insecurity; (4) environmental insecurity; (5) personal or life insecurity; (6) communal insecurity; and (7) political instability.

2.3 Empirical Literature

Ojogho and Egware (2015) conducted a study to examine the influence of insurgency on agricultural progress in Nigeria. The researchers utilized secondary data from 1960 to 2011 to quantify the agricultural transformation in Nigeria. They examined the Nigerian agricultural sector’s contribution to GDP, child mortality rate, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, and level of food production. In addition, the Nigerian civil war, Boko Haram, Niger Delta, and Fulani herders insurgencies were employed as proxies to bolster insurgency. Following the use of tests to determine stationarity, co-integration, and lag selection, specifically the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Johansen, and Schwarz’s Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC) statistics, the data was analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The investigation indicated that the VECM had a decline of one unit in the preceding year. Over the course of the upcoming year, an increase in food production is projected to result in a 4.26% growth in the agricultural sector’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Conversely, if Boko Haram, Niger Delta, and Fulani herdsmen shift from a condition of non-insurgence to insurgency within a specific year, it would lead to a reduction in the agricultural sector’s contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 17.56%, 19.45%, and 17.47% correspondingly. Annually, the transition of Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen from a non-insurgent state to an insurgent one resulted in an average decrease of 10.21 and 4.69 tons, respectively, in food production levels. Similarly, the shift from a state of non-insurgency to insurgency, as a result of the Niger-Delta crisis and Fulani herdsmen, led to an average increase of approximately 5% and 8%, respectively, in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Moreover, they deduced from the outcome that agricultural expansion should encompass all parts, as its basic components exhibit a consistent long-term correlation. Furthermore, it has been found that insurgency indirectly affects agricultural growth by influencing several aspects like as levels of food production, the contribution of agriculture to GDP, CO2 emissions resulting from fuel combustion, and infant mortality. Furthermore, they concluded that failing to address insurgency from any religious, cultural, or communal group in any region poses a significant threat to agricultural development.

Adebisi et al. (2017) conducted a study to evaluate the impact of Boko Haram’s rebellion on Nigeria’s agriculture sector. The research methodology employed in this study was the examination and interpretation of time series data. The secondary data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and t-tests, both prior to and during the insurgency. The findings indicate that agriculture played a significant role in the GDP prior to being disrupted by Boko Haram. However, it has subsequently witnessed a decline during the entire duration of the conflict. The report suggests that the government should implement legal and rational measures to alleviate the detrimental impacts inflicted by Boko Haram on the agricultural industry. Moreover, the report proposes providing farmers with improved incentives as a way to encourage them to restart agricultural activity.

Onime B.E (2018) investigated the impact of “insecurity” on the economic progress in Nigeria. Utilizing components of descriptive qualitative analysis and secondary data. The findings indicate that insecurity has a detrimental impact on economic growth through a decrease in investment, an increase in unemployment, and a reduction in government revenue. The research suggested augmenting the financial resources allocated to internal security. Stewart (2004) conducted a study on the impact of violence and insecurity on economic growth in twenty-five countries from 1960 to 1995. The analysis revealed a consistent obstacle to economic expansion, a substantial disadvantage to the agriculture industry, a decline in exports, and a decrease in production levels.

Borat II.G conducted a study that examined the impact of food insecurity on food production in Iglabi L.G.A in Kaduna state. The study utilized primary data.

The researchers employed a simple random sample technique to find farmers within the specified research area. The data was examined using basic descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis. The study findings indicate that the main factor contributing to security challenges in the study region is the lack of safety caused by incidents of kidnapping, banditry, and cattle theft, which make up 96.4% of the overall occurrences. The absence of adequate security measures has led to a scarcity of food and an increase in food prices.

Eneji M.A and Babagario B conducted a study on the impact of insecurity on agricultural productivity in Gombe State, Nigeria. The study utilized unit root test and ordinary least square (OLS) regression methods as the primary analytical techniques. The findings indicate that an increase in government spending on security has a beneficial effect on agricultural growth. Conversely, there is a feeble and statistically insignificant link between crime rate, poverty, and agricultural expansion.

This study diverges from the existing body of literature by investigating the impact of insecurity on the extension of agriculture from a perspective that prioritizes human beings.

METHODOLOGY

3.1 Research Design

This study used an ex post facto research design. The independent variables used in this study were the Nigeria Crime Rate, Nigeria Terrorism Index, Government Capital Expenditure on Internal Security, and Government Recurrent Expenditure on Internal Security. The variable under consideration was the Gross Domestic Product derived from the agricultural sector. The model was estimated using the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) approach.

3.2 Sources of Data Collection

The data used in this study was culled from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of 2021, the Central Bank of Nigeria Annual Report (multiple editions), and the World Bank and International Statistics database (2021). The analysis covers the period from 1990 to 2021.This study utilizes a researcher-developed primary model to establish the functional correlation between factors pertaining to security expenditure and agricultural output in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022.This study examined a multiple regression (semi-log) model.

GDPA = f(GCEXPIS, GREXPIS, NCR, NTI)                                                           (1)

The multiplicative form of equation (1) is stated as:

GDPA=𝛼₀GCEXPI𝑆^𝛼1𝐺REXPI𝑆^𝛼2NC𝑅^𝛼3NT𝐼^𝛼4𝑒^𝜇1𝑡                                                   (2)

𝑡          𝑡          𝑡          𝑡

Mathematically, the exact form of equation (2) could be expressed in the linear form:

LogGDPA=𝛼₀+𝛼₁logGCEXPIS+𝛼₂logGREXPIS+𝛼₃logNCR+𝛼₄logNTI+𝜇_1𝑡          (3)

Where: GDPA= Gross Domestic Product from Agriculture, GCEXPIS=Government Capital Expenditure on Internal Security, GREXPIS= Government Recurrent Expenditure on Internal Security, NCR=Nigeria Crime Rate, NTI=Nigeria Terrorism Index. 𝛼₀=Constant term while 𝛼₁-𝛼₄ are coefficients of the explanatory variables, while𝜇_1𝑡 = error term

3.4 Method of Data Analysis

The unit root test and error correction model were utilized in this investigation to assess the hypotheses. For the analysis, the econometric statistical software program E-view 10 was utilized.

RESULTS

4.1 Unit Root Test Result

Unit root test was carried out to establish the order of integration. The results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller based unit root test are summarized in Table 1 below:

Table 1: Unit root test results

Source: Researcher’s Computation using e-view 9

Note: ** denotes significance @ 5%

From the outcomes of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and Philip Peron test, it is evident that all the variables possess an integration order of I (1). Thus, due to the variables having the same order of integration, specifically I(1), the empirical analysis employs the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) method to ordinary least squares (OLS).

4.2 Co-integration Test Results

Since all the variables have the attribute of a unit root at the level, they cannot be used for regression in their original form due to the issue of spurious regression (Granger, 1979). However, conducting a regression analysis on different factors would not accurately represent the long-term impact. Therefore, we analyzed the integrated variables for co-integration in order to determine whether there is a long-term relationship among the variables.

Table 2: Co-Integration Result

Researcher’s Computation from E-view 10

Trance test indicate 5 co-integrating equations of 0.05 level

*denote selection of hypothesis at the 0.05 level

**Mackinnon-Hang-michelis (1999) p-values

Researcher’s Computation from E-view 10

Maximum Eigenvalue indicate 5 co-integrating equation at 0.05 level

*denote selection of hypothesis at the 0.05 level

**Mackinnon-Hang-michelis (1999) p-values

The co-integration test indicates that there are a maximum of four (4) co-integrating equations. This suggests that there is a consistent and enduring equilibrium relationship among the variables over an extended period of time. Both the trace and maximum eigenvalue statistics suggest that there are 5 co-integrating equations in the model, and these equations can be linked to the short-run using the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM).

4.3 Error Correction Model Result

The Granger Representation Theorem states that if two or more variables are co-integrated, there exists a valid error correction mechanism between them, and their relationship can be represented by an error correction model (Granger, 1979). Therefore, the analysis proceeds to examine the error correction model (ECM) that explores the relationship between insecurity and agricultural output in Nigeria.

Table 3: ECM RESULT Dependent Variable: DLOG (GDPA)

Researcher’s Computation from E-view 10

The findings indicate a positive and statistically significant correlation between government spending on internal security and agricultural output, with a lag of one period. This implies that an augmentation in government spending on the procurement of security hardware equipment will lead to a rise in agricultural growth. Furthermore, there is a positive and statistically significant correlation between the government’s recurring expenditure on internal security and the rise of agricultural output. The correlation between the crime rate in Nigeria and agricultural expansion is negative and statistically significant, both in the first and second period lag. This suggests that a greater crime rate in Nigeria is associated with lower levels of agricultural engagement and growth. The correlation between the Nigeria terrorism index and agricultural growth is negative, but not statistically significant. There is an inverse relationship between a country’s terrorism score and its economic growth. Thus, it can be inferred that the rise in insecurity throughout many regions of the country is the primary cause of the sluggish economic growth and reduced agricultural output in Nigeria.

The ECM coefficient has a precise value of -0.512428 and is statistically significant. This indicates the presence of a stable long-term equilibrium relationship in the model. This coefficient represents the rate at which the model adapts to any imbalance. The ECM coefficient indicates that 51% of any deviation in value between the current year and the prior year is restored within one year.

The R2 model has a coefficient of determination of 0.90402. Recurrent and capital expenditure on internal security, Nigeria crime rate, and Nigeria terrorism index collectively explained 90% of the variation in agricultural output in Nigeria during the reviewed period.

4.4 Diagnostic Test Result

Table 3 provides the diagnostic test results for the ECM estimation:

Table 4: Diagnostic Test Result

Source: Researcher’s Computation from e-view 10

From the table above, the results of Normality test, Heteroskedasticity and Breuch-God frey serial correlation suggested that the model was free from problem of Heteroskedasticity and Breuch-God frey serial correlation and normally distributed.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

1. The relationship between government capital expenditure on internal security and agricultural output is positive and statistically significant after one period lag. This suggests that an increase in government expenditure on the acquisition of security hardware equipment will results in increase in the agricultural growth. The relationship between government recurrent expenditure on internal security and agricultural output growth shows positive and statistically significant.
2. The relationship between Nigeria crime rate and agricultural growth is negative and statistically significant both at the first and second period lag. This implies that the higher the rate of crime results in a low agricultural participation and growth in Nigeria.
3. The Nigeria terrorism index and agricultural growth shows a negative but insignificant relationship. The higher the terrorism index of any country, the lower the growth of that economy.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This study examined the influence of insecurity on agricultural production in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022.The Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) was utilized and many diagnostic tests were conducted. The results of these tests indicated that the overall model was highly suitable. Therefore, the inferences formed from these results can be considered legitimate and dependable. The findings of the ECM Model indicate that government spending on internal security has a positive and significant influence on agricultural output in Nigeria. Conversely, the crime rate and terrorism index in Nigeria have a negative and significant impact on agricultural output. Thus, based on the preceding information, this study finds that insecurity has a detrimental effect on the growth of agricultural output in Nigeria, as examined in this study. Consequently, the study suggests that;

1. The government should place priority on internal security architecture through increase allocation to the security sector.
2. The government should increase investment in the real sectors of agriculture and manufacturing towards the creation of employment to absorb the growing population of unemployed active youth to help reduce their involvement in various crimes and social vices.
3. The government should roll out targeted programs and policies to aid rural communities impacted by insecurity, including facilitating access to agricultural inputs, extension services, and market infrastructure, fostering resilience and livelihood improvement.
4. The establishment of frameworks for monitoring and evaluating the efficacy of security and agricultural policies over time, enabling policymakers to make timely adjustments and enhancements based on evolving circumstances and real-time feedback.

REFERENCE

1. Achumba, I., CIghomereho, O. S. and Akpor-Robaro, M. O. (2013). Security challenges in Nigeria and the implications for business activities and sustainable development. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(2): 80-99.
2. Adebisi, A., Azeez, M. and Oyeduji, O. A. (2017). The problems and challenges of insecurity in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 6(3): 160-72.
3. Afuwape, T. (2014). How to advise on small Business and home based work issues: A publication of 21^st Strategies Consortium. Retrieved on 3^rd Match, 2016 from www.mytopbusinessideas.com.
4. Ajodo, I.G. (2020). Challenges of developing Nigeria’s local government areas. Downloaded from books.google.com.ng
5. Beland, D. (2005). The political construction of collective insecurity: From moral panic to blame avoidance and organized irresponsibility. Center for European studies, working paper series 126.
6. Central Bank of Nigeria. (2001). CBN statistical bulletin, Abuja Nigeria www.CBN.org
7. Eneji, M.A. Babagario, B, and Eneji, A.G. (2019). The effects of insecurity on Agricultural productivity in Nigeria. The case study of Gombe State, Journal of business management and marketing vol. 2 No.6.
8. Epistein, R.A. (2011). Direct democracy: Government of the people, by the people, and for the people. Harvard journal of law and public policy, 34(819): 819-26
9. Gurr, T. R. (1970). Why men rebel. Centre of International Studies, Princeton UP: Princeton, NJ.
10. Jaja, J.S. (2001). Agricultural and Rural development policy and planning conference paper at department of Agricultural Economics and extension River State University Port Harcourt
11. Mosca, G. (1939). The ruling class. McGraw-Hill: New York.
12. Muhammed, D. (2015). How environmental degradation induces insecurity, insurgency. Enviro News Nigeria: Nigeria. http://earthiournalism.net/stories/how-environmental-degradation-induces-insecuritv-insurgency Nwagwu, E. J. (2014). Unemployment and poverty in Nigeria: A link to national insecurity. Global Journal of Politics and Law Research, 2(1): 19-35.
13. Obah-Akpowoghaha, N. G. (2013). Theoretical understanding of conflicts and violence in Nigeria: The Niger delta militant and northern islamic sect boko haram in perspective. Public Policy and Administration Research, 3(10): 69-78.
14. Obayori, J. B. (2014). The real sector performance and selected macro-economic aggregate in Nigeria published M.sc dissertation. University of Port Harcourt college of graduate studies
15. Ojogho, O. and Egware, R. A. (2015). Impact of insurgency on the agricultural development in Nigeria. The Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 1(11): 35-41.
16. Onime, B.E. (2018) insecurity and Economic growth in Nigeria: A Diagnostic Review European Scientific Journal vol. 14 No.4
17. Saliu, M.O. (2007). Traditional authority and security in contemporary Nigeria. Downloaded from books.google.com.ng
18. Stewart, F (2004). Development and security. Working paper 3 Center for research on inequality. Human security and eternity, Queen Elizabeth house, University of Oxford.
19. UNDP, (1994). Annual Report on developing countries. Downloaded from www.undp.net