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International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) |Volume VI, Issue X, October 2022|ISSN 2454-6186

Factors Affecting the Number of Live Children Per Woman in Egypt Using Poisson Regression Model

 Mostafa Sayed Mostafa Abd – El Hameed El Misery
Assistant professor, Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University, Egypt

IJRISS Call for paper

Abstract: The overall fertility rate in Egypt is to be decreased from 3.5% children per woman to 2.4% by 2030, which is one of the most significant sustainable development goals. Egypt’s overall fertility rate began to increase in 2008, peaking at 3.5 births per woman in 2014. (Ministry of Health and Population et al). The study focuses on the demographic, social, and cultural aspects that are crucial in reducing the overall number of children born to each woman. In order to identify the background factors that can contribute to a decrease in the total number of children ever born for each woman, we used the Egypt Demographic and Health Survey 2014 data [EDHS-2014]. The study provides in-depth information on Egypt’s demographic, socioeconomic variables as well as birth events. The data include 4,336 married women 15 to 49 years. The Poisson regression model is used in the paper’s analysis of the data. According to the study, the most significant characteristics that contribute to a decrease in the number of children per woman include education level attained, exposure to family planning messages, place of residence, wealth index, female employment, and contraceptive use. One of the most recommendations for this study is that the government continues its support for investments in education and improve the standard of living programs. The results show that the government has to increase the number of family planning service locations and step up its efforts to target fertility control.


Recently fertility in Egypt increase in worrying change of direction, where population has doubled since the early 1980s to reach 84 million in 2014 Egypt. This study focuses on the Demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors which are very important to decline the number of children ever born for every woman Demographic and Health Survey 2014 data [EDHS-2014]. After years of low fertility, fertility in Egypt has risen to its highest level in two decades, reaching 3.5 births per woman (Radovich et al., 2018). Changes in fertility levels, availability to and usage of contraception, and age at first marriage all have an impact on fertility rates (Rutayisire et al., 2014). Changes in women’s traits and reproductive behaviour as a result of those changes lead to changes in fertility (El Misery,2020). According to research by Bongaarts (2003), at later points in the fertility transition, differences in fertility by education level tend to decline. Women’s socio-economic factors, particularly as evaluated by education and wealth index, are one of the main determinants of fertility, according to several studies (Krafft, 2016; McDonald, 2000b). Socioeconomic and demographic factors can be viewed as both causes and effects of the sharp fluctuations in the fertility rates in Egypt (El-Zanaty, 2011). In our study, we focused on the role that social, economic, and demographic determinants for women have in changing fertility rates. In this work, we