Price Development Indicator as a Proxy for Inflation: A Case Study in Brebes Regency

Price Development Indicator as a Proxy for Inflation: A Case Study in Brebes Regency

Catur Raharjo Febrayanto¹, Ilmiawan Surya Bayuaji^1, and Rosidah²

¹Regional Development Planning, Research, and Development Agency

²Economic Division of the Brebes Regency Secretary General

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51584/IJRIAS.2024.910040

Received: 12 October 2024; Accepted: 21 October 2024; Published: 18 November 2024

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impact of inflation on the development of essential foods prices in Brebes Regency, Indonesia, using the price development indicator as a proxy for inflation. The research employed a descriptive qualitative and quantitative approach, utilizing data from the Regional Development Planning, Research, and Development Agency (Bapperlitbangda) of Brebes Regency and the Economic Division of the Brebes Regency Secretary General. The study found that there is a significant fluctuation in the prices of essential foods, with rice contributing the most to the overall price development indicator. The Brebes Regency government has implemented various measures to control inflation, focusing on ensuring the availability of essential foods, maintaining affordable prices, and fostering effective communication with stakeholders. These efforts aim to mitigate the impact of inflation on the cost of living for residents and maintain economic stability in the region.

Keywords— food, price, economic

INTRODUCTION

Inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time, resulting in a decrease in the purchasing power of money (Sifa et al., 2021). Inflation, a pervasive economic phenomenon characterized by a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services, poses a multifaceted challenge to economic stability and prosperity (Simon, 2023). While a moderate level of inflation can be considered healthy for a growing economy, excessive inflation can have detrimental consequences (Supriatna et al., 2021).

The impact of inflation is far-reaching. Rising prices erode the purchasing power of consumers, diminishing their ability to afford essential goods and services (Rahmanta & Mayunianta, 2020; Steven, 2020). This can lead to a decline in living standards, particularly for low-income households. Inflation also distorts investment decisions, as businesses face uncertainty about future costs and returns (Fadilla & Purnamasari, 2021). Furthermore, high inflation can exacerbate income inequality, as those with fixed incomes struggle to keep pace with rising prices (Ramadani, 2019).

Maintaining price stability and controlling inflation is paramount for sustainable economic growth and development (Fadilla & Purnamasari, 2021). Central banks and governments employ a range of monetary and fiscal policies to manage inflation, including interest rate adjustments, fiscal spending, and targeted interventions in specific markets (Muhammad, 2020). By keeping inflation within a manageable range, policymakers aim to create a stable economic environment that fosters investment, job creation, and overall prosperity (Sifa et al., 2021).

Inflation exerts a significant impact on consumer purchasing power, diminishing their ability to acquire goods and services at the same level as before (Erawati & Llewelyn, 2002). As prices rise, the value of each unit of currency decreases, effectively reducing the amount of goods and services that consumers can purchase with the same amount of money. This erosion of purchasing power can have a cascading effect on consumer behavior and economic activity (Anugrah et al., 2020).

When faced with rising prices, consumers may adopt various strategies to cope with the diminished purchasing power (Simon, 2023). They may reduce their consumption of non-essential goods and services, prioritize essential items, and seek out cheaper alternatives. This shift in spending patterns can lead to a decline in demand for certain goods and services, potentially impacting businesses and employment.

Moreover, inflation can disproportionately affect low-income households, who often spend a larger proportion of their income on essential goods and services. As prices rise, these households may face difficulties in meeting their basic needs, potentially leading to increased poverty and hardship (Mardinata et al., 2020).

In Indonesia, the commitment to maintaining price stability and controlling inflation extends consistently down to the district and city levels (Fadilla & Purnamasari, 2021). To monitor price trends and ensure affordability, a Price Development Indicator (PDI) approach is employed in non-inflationary districts and cities. This approach utilizes a specific set of indicators to track price movements of essential goods and services (Ramadani, 2019). Each regional head is tasked with implementing initiatives to stabilize the prices of basic necessities, ensuring their affordability for the local population. This comprehensive approach underscores the nation’s commitment to mitigating the adverse effects of inflation and fostering a stable economic environment for all citizens (Simanungkalit, 2020).

Inflation can be fueled by a complex interplay of factors, including disruptions in supply chains, inefficiencies in distribution networks, affordability constraints, and ineffective communication channels (Chintia & Destiningsih, 2022). A shortage of essential goods, often caused by natural disasters, production bottlenecks, or geopolitical tensions, can lead to price increases. Similarly, logistical challenges and bottlenecks in the distribution process can hinder the timely delivery of goods, creating artificial scarcity and driving up prices (Prastowo et al., 2008). Moreover, affordability issues arise when prices become excessively high, making it difficult for consumers to access essential goods, particularly for low-income households. Finally, a lack of effective communication between producers, distributors, and consumers can exacerbate price volatility, as market signals are not transmitted efficiently, leading to miscalculations and disruptions in supply and demand dynamics (Kalsum, 2015).

Brebes Regency, a prominent district within the province of Central Java, actively participates in the national effort to control the prices of essential commodities. Recognizing the importance of price stability in fostering economic well-being, Brebes has joined forces with other regional governments to implement a comprehensive set of policies designed to effectively manage inflationary pressures. These collaborative efforts, driven by a shared commitment to mitigating the adverse effects of price fluctuations, have proven instrumental in stabilizing the prices of essential goods and services, ensuring their affordability for the local population (Statistisi et al., 2023).

The Bupati’s commitment to price stability is evident in the proactive measures taken to ensure that essential goods remain affordable for all residents of Brebes. These measures encompass a wide range of initiatives, including strategic partnerships with key stakeholders in the supply chain, targeted interventions to address potential price fluctuations, and the promotion of efficient distribution networks to minimize transportation costs. Through these concerted efforts, the Bupati has successfully created a stable and predictable pricing environment, fostering consumer confidence and promoting sustainable economic growth within the region (Daniel, 2018).

This research aims to investigate the impact of policies and initiatives implemented by the Brebes Regency government on the Price Development Indicator (PDI) for essential commodities. By analyzed the relationship between government actions and the PDI, this study seeks to understand the effectiveness of these measures in controlling price fluctuations and ensuring affordability for the local population.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Inflation, a persistent economic phenomenon characterized by a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services, has long been a subject of intense study and debate among economists and policymakers. Understanding its intricate dynamics is crucial, as it significantly impacts economic stability, consumer purchasing power, and overall societal well-being. Inflation is not simply a one-time price increase, but rather a persistent upward trend in prices across a broad range of goods and services, eroding the value of money over time (Fadilla & Purnamasari, 2021).

The measurement of inflation relies on price indices, such as the Price Development Index (PDI), which tracks the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services (Charysa, 2013). The PDI is a weighted average of prices, with the weights reflecting the relative importance of different goods and services in the consumer basket. A positive change in the CPI indicates inflation, while a negative change suggests deflation, a period of declining prices (Widasari et al., 2023).

The causes of inflation are complex and multifaceted, often stemming from a combination of factors. Demand-pull inflation arises when aggregate demand in an economy outpaces the available supply of goods and services (Rahmanta & Mayunianta, 2020). Increased consumer spending, fueled by factors like rising incomes or low interest rates, can lead to demand-pull inflation. Similarly, government spending, particularly on infrastructure projects or social programs, can also contribute to demand-pull inflation. Furthermore, increased investment, driven by business confidence or favorable economic conditions, can further exacerbate demand-pull inflation (Septiatin et al., 2016).

Cost-push inflation occurs when the cost of production increases, leading businesses to raise prices to maintain profitability. Rising input costs, such as wages, energy, and raw materials, can significantly contribute to cost-push inflation (Supriatna et al., 2021). For example, a surge in oil prices can lead to higher transportation costs for businesses, ultimately resulting in higher prices for consumers. Supply chain disruptions, caused by natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, or labor shortages, can also contribute to cost-push inflation by creating artificial scarcity and driving up prices (Setiawan & Hadianto, 2014).

Built-in inflation is driven by expectations of future price increases. If consumers and businesses anticipate higher prices, they may demand higher wages and prices, leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy of inflation. This can create a vicious cycle, where expectations of inflation drive actual inflation, further reinforcing those expectations (Putri, 2015).

The consequences of inflation are far-reaching, impacting individuals, businesses, and the overall economy. As prices rise, the value of each unit of currency declines, effectively reducing the purchasing power of consumers. This means that consumers can buy fewer goods and services with the same amount of money (Charysa, 2013). This erosion of purchasing power can have a particularly severe impact on low-income households, who often spend a larger proportion of their income on essential goods and services. As prices rise, these households may face difficulties in meeting their basic needs, potentially leading to increased poverty and hardship (Anugrah et al., 2020).

Inflation can distort investment decisions, as businesses face uncertainty about future costs and returns. High inflation can make it difficult for businesses to plan for the long term, as the value of their investments can be eroded by rising prices. This uncertainty can lead to reduced investment and economic growth, as businesses become hesitant to commit resources in an unpredictable environment (A. Mahendra, 2017).

Inflation can exacerbate income inequality, as those with fixed incomes struggle to keep pace with rising prices. For example, pensioners and those on fixed salaries may see their purchasing power decline significantly during periods of high inflation. This can lead to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, as those with higher incomes are better able to protect their wealth from inflation (Widasari et al., 2023).

High inflation can lead to reduced economic growth by discouraging investment, reducing consumer spending, and creating uncertainty in the business environment. Businesses may become hesitant to invest in new projects or expand their operations if they are unsure about the future value of their investments. Consumers may also reduce their spending if they are concerned about rising prices, leading to a decline in aggregate demand and economic activity (Mardinata et al., 2020).

To manage and control inflation, central banks and governments employ a range of monetary and fiscal policies. Central banks utilize monetary policy tools, such as interest rate adjustments, to influence the money supply and credit conditions in the economy (Simon, 2023). Raising interest rates can curb inflation by making borrowing more expensive, reducing consumer spending and investment. However, raising interest rates too aggressively can also slow economic growth and lead to job losses (Erawati & Llewelyn, 2002).

The government has also implemented supply-side measures to improve agricultural productivity, reduce transportation costs, and promote competition in key sectors (Febrayanto, 2023; Febrayanto & Kurniasih, 2022; Febrayanto & Susiyanti, 2024). These measures aim to increase the supply of goods and services, reducing the pressure on prices and promoting economic efficiency (Apriyadi & Hutajulu, 2020).

Inflation is a complex economic phenomenon with significant implications for individuals, businesses, and the overall economy. Understanding the causes and impacts of inflation is essential for policymakers to develop effective strategies to manage and control price levels (Sifa et al., 2021). By implementing a combination of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side policies, governments can work to maintain price stability and foster a healthy and sustainable economic environment. However, managing inflation is a delicate balancing act, requiring careful consideration of the trade-offs involved and the potential unintended consequences of policy interventions.

METHOD

This research was conducted over a period of nine months, spanning from January to September 2024. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study combines both quantitative and qualitative data analysis to provide a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between government interventions and price stability in Brebes Regency.

The quantitative component utilizes a one-way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) statistical test, followed by Duncan’s Multiple Range Test, to analyze secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). This analysis aims to identify significant variations in the Price Development Indicator (PDI) values for essential commodities across different months.

The qualitative component complements the quantitative analysis through in-depth interviews with key stakeholders involved in the Brebes Regency’s inflation control team. These interviews explore the types of price control activities implemented, their timing, and the overall effectiveness of these measures. By integrating both quantitative and qualitative data, this research provides a nuanced understanding of the impact of government interventions on price stability in Brebes Regency.

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

The results of the one-way ANOVA analysis, conducted to assess the variability of the Price Development Indicator (PDI) across the study period of January to September 2024, revealed a statistically significant difference in price trends for essential commodities. This finding underscores the dynamic nature of price fluctuations in Brebes Regency, highlighting the need for continuous monitoring and proactive intervention to ensure price stability (Table 1).

The analysis revealed a distinct pattern of price fluctuations, with the highest PDI value observed in February, reaching 2.12. This indicates a notable increase in prices during that month, potentially driven by factors such as seasonal demand shifts, supply chain disruptions, or external economic influences. Conversely, the lowest PDI value was recorded in April, reaching -2.57, indicating a significant decrease in prices during that period. This decline may be attributed to factors such as increased supply, government interventions, or a decrease in consumer demand (Table 2).

These findings emphasize the importance of understanding the underlying factors contributing to these price fluctuations. By analyzing the specific drivers behind the observed price trends, policymakers can develop more targeted and effective strategies to manage inflation and ensure the affordability of essential commodities for the local population (Muhammad, 2020). The data suggests that a proactive approach to price monitoring and intervention is crucial for maintaining price stability in Brebes Regency, particularly during periods of significant price volatility.

Table 1. One-Way Anova Results For Price Development Indicator

Table 2. Duncan’s Multiple Range Test Results For Price Development Indicator

Different letters in the same column indicate a significant difference at a 5% error level

The surge in the Price Development Indicator (PDI) during the period of January to May 2024 (Fig. 1) can be attributed to a confluence of factors, primarily driven by the lingering effects of the El Niño phenomenon that plagued 2023. This weather pattern, characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, significantly disrupted agricultural production, leading to a contraction in the supply of essential commodities (Fig. 2). This supply shock, coupled with a consistent demand for these goods, created an environment ripe for inflationary pressures, resulting in a notable increase in prices reflected in the elevated PDI values during the first five months of 2024 (Widasari et al., 2023). The reduced availability of essential goods, coupled with the persistent demand, created a scenario where prices were pushed upward, highlighting the vulnerability of the local economy to external shocks and the importance of proactive measures to mitigate the impact of such events on price stability.

Fig. 1. Dynamic of Price Development Indicator during January-September 2024

Fig. 2. Sea Surface Temperature during 2014-2023

In Brebes Regency, rice has consistently emerged as the primary driver of fluctuations in the Price Development Indicator (PDI), often contributing to its upward trend. This suggests that rice, a staple food for the local population, is particularly susceptible to price volatility, potentially due to factors such as supply chain disruptions, seasonal variations, or fluctuating global market prices (Fig. 3).

On the other hand, red chili peppers and bird’s eye chili peppers have been identified as the commodities most frequently associated with a decrease in the PDI. This indicates that these commodities are more prone to price declines, potentially due to factors such as increased production, favorable weather conditions, or a decrease in consumer demand (Ramadani, 2019). Understanding the specific factors influencing price fluctuations in these key commodities is crucial for policymakers to develop targeted strategies to mitigate price volatility and ensure the affordability of essential goods for the local population (Fig 3).

Fig. 3. Frequency and contribution of essential commodities

The Brebes Regency government recognizes the importance of a stable Price Development Indicator (PDI) for the well-being of its citizens, as it directly affects the affordability of essential goods. To achieve this stability, the government has implemented a multi-pronged strategy that addresses the core factors influencing price fluctuations (Ramadani, 2019).

The government is actively working to increase the availability of essential commodities through initiatives such as supporting local agricultural production, and optimizing storage facilities. Simultaneously, efforts are underway to improve the distribution of essential goods by investing in infrastructure and logistics, ensuring timely and efficient delivery to markets and consumers. This includes improving transportation networks, establishing distribution centers, and promoting collaboration among stakeholders in the supply chain.

Recognizing the crucial role of effective communication, the government fosters open dialogue and coordination among all stakeholders involved in the food supply chain, including producers, distributors, retailers, and consumers. This regular exchange of information allows for early identification of potential price fluctuations and the implementation of timely interventions. Through these comprehensive measures, the Brebes Regency government is committed to stabilizing the PDI, ensuring the affordability of essential goods, and promoting economic well-being for its citizens. The government’s proactive approach to managing price fluctuations through enhancing supply, optimizing distribution, and fostering communication among stakeholders demonstrates a commitment to a stable food supply for the region.

CONCLUSIONS

The importance of controlling inflation is evident in its impact on the development of essential goods prices in Brebes Regency. Fluctuations in inflation rates directly influence the cost of living for residents, especially concerning staple goods. High inflation can erode the real income of individuals, leading to decreased purchasing power and potentially exacerbating income inequality within the community. Therefore, managing inflation is vital to protect the standard of living and overall welfare of the population.

In response to the challenges posed by inflation, the government of Brebes Regency has implemented various measures to mitigate its effects on essential goods prices. These efforts include monitoring price trends, implementing price control mechanisms for basic commodities, and collaborating with local producers to ensure a stable supply of essential goods at affordable prices. Additionally, the government has focused on enhancing public awareness of inflation’s impact.

Overall, the concerted efforts of the government of Brebes Regency reflect a commitment to tackling the complexities of inflation and maintaining economic stability for its residents. By implementing proactive measures to address inflation’s impact on essential goods prices, the government aims to foster a conducive environment for sustainable economic growth and ensure the well-being of its citizens. Prioritizing price stability and addressing inflationary pressures are integral components of Kabupaten Brebes’ economic strategy to promote prosperity and resilience in the face of economic uncertainties.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to the Regional Development Planning, Research, and Development Agency (Bapperlitbangda) of Brebes Regency and the Economic Division of the Brebes Regency Secretary General for their invaluable support in facilitating the completion of this research. Their guidance, resources, and collaboration were instrumental in ensuring the success of this study. We are deeply appreciative of their contributions and commitment to promoting research and development in Brebes Regency.

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