An Appropriate Non Linear Regression Model for Assessing Community Policing and Violent Crimes Reduction

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) | Volume V, Issue XI, November 2021 | ISSN 2454–6186

An Appropriate Non Linear Regression Model for Assessing Community Policing and Violent Crimes Reduction

Arimie, C. O.¹, Biu, O. E.², Odu-Ndom, N. K.^3
1Department of Radiology, University of Port Harcourt Teaching Hospital, Rivers State, Nigeria
²Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
³Department of Mathematics/Statistics, Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Rivers State, Nigeria

Abstract: An appropriate non-linear regression of the relationship between a response variable and the predictor variables was considered using Probit, Logit and Poisson Log-linear regression. The study focused on analysis of crime rate before and after engagement of Onelga Security Peace Advisory Committee (OSPAC) in Ogba, Ndoni, Egbema Local Government Area (ONELGA) of Rivers State using 220 questionnaires administered to households in twenty-five communities in the LGA by convenience sampling method. Descriptive statistics, ranks, percentage analysis and non-linear regression techniques were methods of analysis used. Microsoft Excel, SPSS 23 and Minitab 18 statistical Software were used. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to compare the models. The results showed that Probit and Logit regression models identified the covariates of killing and rape cases as the major crime before engagement of OSPAC since both coefficients have significant effect at 5%. No independent variables have significant effects on response variables after the engagement of OSPAC, except the constant coefficient [ ] which implies violent crime reduction in the community. It was concluded that the Logit regression model is more suitable for modelling response variable on the covariates and community policing intervention has an impact on violent crime reduction.

Keywords: Non-Linear Regression, Covariates, generalized linear model, Akaike Information Criterion, community policing intervention.

I. INTRODUCTION

Budgetary allocation to security in Nigeria has been on the increase in recent times. Despite the increase, violent crimes have been on the rise. For example, within the first ten weeks of 2018, 1,351 people lost their lives in violent deaths across Nigeria (Ndujihe and Udochukwu, 2018). Yet, Security received a total of N1.283 Trillion (Odunsi, 2018) representing 14.07% of the nation’s financial appropriation for the year. Beyond the budgetary allocations, 2015 statistics on the numerical strength of Nigeria’s security personnel shows that the nation maintains a security force of about 371,800 police officers, 181,000 military personnel out of which 124,000 are active while 57,000 are reserved

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