An Assessment of Rainfall and Temperature on Seasonal Outbreak of Lassa Fever in Nigeria For the Year 2020
- May 19, 2022
- Posted by: rsispostadmin
- Categories: IJRISS, Public Health, Social Science
International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) | Volume VI, Issue IV, April 2022 | ISSN 2454–6186
Kevin Barnabas Ndayakalah, Williams J.J., Wushiya Joseph Gwade
Department of Geography, Adamawa State College of Education Hong, Nigeria,
Abstract – The present study examined the impacts of rainfall and temperature on the seasonal outbreak of Lassa fever in Nigeria for the year 2020. The sample size was based on cluster sampling of the seven states with the highest number of cases in 2020. Three states from the south and four states from the north. Suspected and confirmed cases were gathered from the week by week epidemiological report of the NCDC website from December 30, 2019/week 52 to June 28, 2020/week 26. Average rainfall and temperature data for each state were gathered on a weekly average basis from the weather records of AccuWeather.com. The findings showed that there were no significant relationships between the climatic variables and the number of suspected and confirmed cases. However, there were weak significant relationships between the number of deaths and average low temperature (r = – 0.24) and average temperature difference (r = 0.19). In the southern states, for every one-degree (1°F) increase in temperature (f), there are an additional 12.1, 5.6 and 1.7 suspected cases in Edo, Ondo and Ebonyi states. Average high temperature alone could explain ~50% of the increase in cases. Relationships were less clear in the northern states. In contrast to previous research, the study found that there is a non-linear relationship between the climatic variables and Lassa fever outbreaks.
Keywords— Rainfall, Temperature, Lassa Fever, Suspected cases, Confirmed cases, Seasonal Outbreaks
I.INTRODUCTION
Lassa fever is one of the deadliest seasonal viral diseases plaguing the West African sub-region such as Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Togo, Senegal, Ghana, Mali, Guinea, and Nigeria [24]. Irregular imported cases have been accounted for in the United States of America, Europe, and Asia [4].
Past epidemiological data showed that West Africa has recorded about 300,000 to 500,000 cases of Lassa fever with 5,000 deaths each year [15]. The first Lassa fever case was identified at Lassa, a rural settlement in Borno state, North-eastern Nigeria after the death of two missionary nurses, Laura Wine and Charlotte Shaw in 1969 [24].
