An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Net Migration and Macroeconomic Condition of Nigeria

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) | Volume VI, Issue I, January 2022 | ISSN 2454–6186

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Net Migration and Macroeconomic Condition of Nigeria

Oluwaseun Temidayo Okikiola
Axion Research, Lagos, Nigeria

Abstract: Nigeria is an important migration destination within the West African sub-region. However, over the past two (2) decades, the country has consistently recorded a negative net migration rate, implying a higher number of emigration than immigration. Drawing from the neoclassical and modern theories of migration, which highlight economic condition as a major factor in the decision to migrate, this paper seeks to empirically assess the relationship between the net migration pattern in Nigeria and the macroeconomic condition of the country over the past three (3) decades (from 1991 to 2020). Using the OLS regression analysis, the findings show a regression value (R2) of 0.847, which implies that the variables of macroeconomic condition (economic growth, real GDP per capita, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and current account balance) account for 85% of the variation in the net migration rate of the country. Among these variables, real GDP per capita and the unemployment rate were found to have a significant impact on net migration. However, the negative relationship between real GDP per capita and net migration rate shows that an increase in the prosperity of residents in Nigeria reduces the net migration rate. This suggests the existence and the need to deal with unequal distribution of income in the country, which limits the trickledown effect of an improved economy. Also, the positive relationship between the unemployment rate and net migration suggests the existence of other factors other than economic factors (as suggested by the modern theory of migration), which play a critical role in the decision to immigrate to or emigrate from Nigeria.

Keywords: Net Migration, Immigration, Emigration, Macroeconomic Condition, Nigeria, Economic Growth, Real GDP per Capita, Unemployment, Inflation

I.INTRODUCTION

International migration is a phenomenon that has witnessed increasing policy focus over the two decades. While this phenomenon is driven by a variety of factors that range in complexity and tend to be mutually interconnected, it remains one of the fundamental drivers of development and social transformation in all the regions of the world (Castles, 2019). This has resulted in the liberalization of migration policies, with a shift in policy focus from the curtailing of migrants, to the selection of migrants by immigration countries (Haas et al., 2018). While the number of international migrants has increased globally over the years, understanding the drivers of international migration will require a multifaceted analysis of several factors as well as their interconnectedness. Kuhnt (2019) classifies these drivers into micro-level drivers, meso-

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