Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Yam Production in Nigeria

International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI) | Volume VIII, Issue IX, September 2021 | ISSN 2321–2705

Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Yam Production in Nigeria

AJALA Adedolapo Kemi ^1*, AJETOMOBI Joshua Olusegun², OJEDOKUN Idris kayode^{3
1, 2, 3} Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, , PMB 4000, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria

Abstract: The study was designed to investigate the relationship between climate variables (rainfall and temperature) and yam production across Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to estimate the impact of climate change on yield, and net revenue of yam agriculture in Nigeria and to investigate the potential impact of climate change on yam agriculture in 2050 and 2100 using Parallel Climate Model and the Canadian climate change Model. Data for 1200 yam farming households were sourced from general household survey wave 4 and that of climate variables from 1981 to 2019 collected from Nigeria Meteorological agency. Feasible generalised least square and Ricardian regression models were used to determine the relationship between climate variables, yield and net revenue of yam agriculture. Simulated Ricardian regression models were used to investigate the potential impact of climate change on yam net revenue in 2050 and 2100. The result showed that rainfall had a positive relationship with both yield and net revenue while temperature had a negative relationship with the yield and net revenue, and the infinitesimal change in temperature reduced net revenue while the infinitesimal change in rainfall increases the net revenue. The potential impact of climate change on yam agriculture showed a detriment on the net revenue of yam agriculture by 2100

Key words: Climate, Ricardian, regression, yam, Nigeria, Impact.

I. INTRODUCTION

Climate change is not a new phenomenon to many people in the sense that the subject has attracted significant attention in recent years due to its venomous effects on ecosystem. Until recent time, the effects of man’s activities on climate variability were perceived as insignificant and so climate change was largely taken for granted. Conversely, it has been evidently established that climate change is not an issue to be trivially managed; its veracity is seriously affecting the earth already, especially challenging agricultural productivity and food security across the globe even the developed countries are not exempted and thus, it requires urgent attention. However, the climate change impact on agricultural productivity may either be positive or negative; nevertheless, several empirical studies show that the latter outweighs the former Nzeh and Oboh (2011), Enete et al. (2011). In Nigeria and Africa as a whole, the pattern of rainfall has already been altered, affecting the commencement of the planting season and resulting in poor harvest yields. The unreliable rainfall (changes in variance and seasons of rainfall) has been observed since 2012;

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