Ascertaining the Optimal Population Growth Threshold for Nigeria’s Economic Development

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) | Volume V, Issue VI, June 2021 | ISSN 2454–6186

Ascertaining the Optimal Population Growth Threshold for Nigeria’s Economic Development

Supper Roland Okijie¹, Ubong Edem Effiong^2*
1Department of Sociology and Anthropology, University of Uyo, P.M.B. 1017, Uyo, Akwa, Ibom State, Nigeria
²Department of Economics, University of Uyo, P.M.B. 1017, Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria
*Corresponding Author

Abstract: This paper sought to study the demographic dynamics in the Nigerian economy as it affects the development process of the country. The study specifically investigated the determining factors of population growth in Nigeria, along with the effect of infant mortality on fertility rate. The study employed the ordinary least squares regression and threshold regression analysis in achieving the set objectives. The data for the study were obtained from World Development Indicators and they covered the period of 1970 to 2017. The result of the study revealed that the determining factors of population growth in Nigeria are crude birth rate and infant mortality rate. Also, a positive and significant effect of infant mortality on fertility rate was observed. The optimal threshold of crude birth rate was obtained to be 41.62%, while the optimal population growth level that is sustainable for economic development was estimated to be 2.50%. The paper concluded that there is need to maintain an optimal population growth that will be consistent with the available resources is sustainable economic development is to be achieved.

Keywords: Population Growth; Economic Development, Demographic Transition, Threshold Regression; Fertility; Crude Birth Rate.

I.INTRODUCTION

Population increase has a contradictory impact on a country’s progress. It both aids and hinders economic progress. Population expansion was deemed bad by Greek philosophers over 2,500 years ago because it hampered economic development. Plato (427-347 B.C.) proposed that the number of residents in a kingdom be fixed at 5,040 since this number is divisible by any integer from 1 to 12 except 11. Aristotle (384-322 B.C.) reasoned in a similar manner. He wished that the country’s population not reach a particular threshold. Sir William Petty (1984) provided an upbeat assessment of population increase. Adam Smith saw population increase as a source of prosperity as well. However, traditional economists, particularly T.R. Malthus (1798), raised the alarm about a country’s rapid population increase.

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