Investigation of Influential Factors Towards Predicting Death Rate in Bangladesh

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) | Volume VI, Issue IV, April 2022 | ISSN 2454–6186

Investigation of Influential Factors Towards Predicting Death Rate in Bangladesh

Md. Nazmus Salehin, Mst. Irin Sultana
Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering, Bangladesh Army University of Engineering & Technology, Natore, Bangladesh

Abstract: the concept of death rate is very momentous for development planning in a country. Bangladesh has largely extended its demographic transition from Death Rate (DR). Death Rate observes the economic growth and the standard of living in a country and sometimes controls the country classification defined by the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP). This paper looks into numerous social and economic factors responsible for determining the DR in Bangladesh and builds a prediction model that discloses many unexplored and useful observations. The World Bank data repository, based on the World Development Indicator (WDI) – 2015, has been inquired for the investigation and model building process. Primarily, a multiple stepwise linear regression-based method has been applied to build various models, and their performances are measured using MAE, RMSE, and RAE under the shed of k-fold cross-validation. Experimental results show that the final identified model forecasts the DR convincingly.

Keywords: Death Rate, Linear Regression, Risk Factors, Prediction Model, K- cross Validation.

I.INTRODUCTION

Bangladesh officially named the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, is a country situated in South Asia. It is the eighth-most crowed country in the world, with a population almost 163 million people, in an area of 148,560 square kilometers (57,360 sq mi), making it one of the most deeply populated countries in the world [1]. In Bangladesh, About 45% of rural household lie below the poverty line [2]. Despite its widespread poverty and occasionally extreme climate events, the country has made remarkable progress in the last four decades in providing vaccines to children and mothers; reducing vitamin A deficiency as well as mortality of infants, children and mothers; increasing life expectancy; and reducing gender and economic inequalities in health outcomes [3].
Crude death rate introduces the number of deaths occurring during the year, per 1,000 population calculated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration [4]. However, it is clear to us that mortality has already decreased than the past as well as achieved remarkable reductions in maternal mortality due to take several programs to reduce mortality. Several government and non-government organization works continuously about creating awareness among the women, children and also the overall people in Bangladesh. People are now conscious about their health, nutrition and diseases thus reduces mortality rate [5, 6]. Mortality rates and ratios are

Read More