Modelling Theft Criminal Offence in Kwara State Using ARIMA

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International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI) | Volume VIII, Issue IV, April 2021 | ISSN 2321–2705

Modelling Theft Criminal Offence in Kwara State Using ARIMA

AKINYEMI, Emmanuel K, OGUNLEYE, Abiodun O, GUNSOLA, Obaseye A. Olaoye, Hakeem O
Dept. of Statistics, Federal School of Statistics, Nigeria

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Abstract:
A time series modeling approach (Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model) has been used in this study to forecast theft criminal offence in Kwara state. This study is centered on Time Series Analysis of Data on theft criminal Offences in Kwara State from 2006– 2015 which is restricted to only theft criminal offences in the state.
The best model is the model with the least AIC Value which is SARIMA (0,1,1)(2,0,0)[12] having its AIC Value to be 898.98. The ACF of Residual showed that nearly all the spikes are within the line of boundary and the Ljung-Box statistics showed that all p-value points are above 0.05 thereby showing the accuracy of the model is good to forecast. The histogram showed that residual for the forecast which reveal that the error term for the forecast satisfies the assumption of normality, i.e. residual of the forecast is normally distributed. It was concluded that there is no residual autocorrelation i.e. there is evidence of non-zero autocorrelations in the forecast errors at lags 1 to 21. It recommend that Government is therefore advised to aside Security operatives engage Landlords, Household heads, market women, communities/street leaders and elders as an extended mediums of getting security information.

Key words: Forecasting, Time Series Modeling, ARIMA, Assault, Kwara.

1.0 Introduction

Crimes become a national or community problems when it is chronic and systematic and its coincidence, pattern and seriousness become a threat to the general wellbeing of people. There are four indicators of whether or not a country or state has crime problem. These indicators are; the extent, seriousness, pattern and the control capacity or effectiveness of crime control institutions. Based on this fact, we can boldly say “Nigeria has a crime problem”
In recent times, armed violence has taken several forms in most of the states of the North Central region of Nigeria which Kwarastate is an active member. Between 2012 and 2013, armed robbers attacked banks in both share