Weather Forecasting Considerations

International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI) | Volume VI, Issue VIII, August 2019 | ISSN 2321–2705

Weather Forecasting Considerations

Celso Luis Levada¹, Osvaldo Missiato², Antonio Luis Ferrari³, Miriam de Magalhães Oliveira Levada¹

¹Hermínio Ometto Foundations-Fho/Uniararas/Brazil
²Faculdades Integradas Einstein De Limeira/Brazil
³Faculdade De Engenharia E Agrimensura De Pirassununga/Brasil

Abstract: – A numerical climate model is the computer program that simulates an atmospheric movement in space and time. A variety of meteorological phenomena can be analyzed and predicted by different types of numerical weather forecasting models. Numerical weather forecast uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the climate based on current weather conditions. Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary for modern numerical weather forecasting requires some of the world’s most powerful supercomputers. A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations governing the atmosphere. The idea of numerical weather forecasting is to sample the state of air at a given time and use the fluid dynamics and thermodynamics equations to estimate the state of air at some point in the future. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time.

I. INTRODUCTION

This introduction is based on the articles “Evolution of climate models and weather and climate forecasting” by SAMPAIO e SILVA DIAS(2), An overview of numerical weather prediction models of GAZTELUMEND(1) and History of Numerical Weather Prediction, by FLYNN(3), that make a historical development about weather and climate forecasting. The review begins in the year 1904, when a more explicit analysis for weather forecasting was proposed by the Norwegian Vilhelm Bjerknes, who established a two-year plan steps to make weather forecasts. In the first stage, called diagnosis, the initial state of the atmosphere is determined from observations in weather stations and instrumented balloons. Secondly, a prognostic step originated, in which the laws governing the state of the atmosphere are used to calculate temporal evolution. At that time, there were already a small number of observations of the atmosphere, and some observational programs were started, which allowed a reasonable diagnosis of the state of the atmosphere, at least in part of Europe. Bjerknes proposed a set of equations that represent physical principles of conservation of energy, mass and momentum, as well as diagnostic relationships between pressure, temperature and density.

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