Statistical Analysis of Cycling Patterns in Great Britain before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cycling rose sharply across Britain in 2020. Five years on, it is unclear how much of that increase has held. This study uses 5.27 million hourly manual counts from 43,401 sites (2000–2025) to measure persistence, defines a persistence ratio, and examines changes in where and when people cycle. A flow-weighted, chain-linked index shows cycling at counted sites 50% above its 2019 level in 2020 and 11% above in 2025, a persistence ratio of 0.21. London retained three-quarters of its surge (+39%); the rest of Great Britain retained an eighth (+6%), and several regions ended below 2019. A site fixed-effects index, which weights each site equally, put the typical site 6% below 2019 by 2025: growth has become concentrated in London, whose busy routes dominate a flow-weighted measure. The share of cycling in the two commuting peaks fell 4.2 percentage points between 2019 and 2025 (SE 0.24), with the 07:00 hour hit hardest, while midday cycling grew. Contrary to expectation, the day-of-week pattern did not change once site composition was controlled for. The pandemic left a lasting mark on London’s cycling and on the timing of trips, but outside the capital, cycling volumes have largely returned to their earlier trajectory.

cycling; active travel; hybrid working; traffic counts; persistence; Great Britain

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