Examining the Factors, Trends and Climate Change Patterns and Their Implication on Farmers-Herders Conflicts in Some Selected Communities of Bassa LGA, Plateau State

Climate change poses a severe threat to agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, food security, and communal peace in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly within transition zones where farming and pastoralism overlap. This study examined the factors, trends, and climate change patterns and their implications for farmer-herder conflicts in selected communities of Bassa Local Government Area (LGA), Plateau State, Nigeria. Primary data were collected through a structured Likert-scale questionnaire administered to 150 respondents (75 crop farmers and 75 herders) across five communities: Gabia, Kimakpa, Kakkek, Kishika, and Ta'agbe. The socio-economic profile points to a highly vulnerable population, with 70.7% of respondents earning a monthly household income below N50,000, making them highly sensitive to climate-driven resource shocks. Descriptive analysis of the full five-point response distribution (mean = 3.85–3.89 on a 1–5 scale across items) showed strong local consensus on anthropogenic drivers of climate change: 73.4% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that deforestation drives local warming, 74.0% linked irregular rainfall to climate change, and 73.4% identified bush burning as a key driver of environmental degradation. A further 74.0% observed that a decade-long reduction in vegetation cover has altered the local microclimate, undermining rural community resilience and livelihood security. These climatic shifts are directly implicated in violent conflict: rising temperatures and irregular rainfall deplete pastures and dry up shared water points, forcing herders to alter historic migration routes and encroach on arable farmland. The resulting spatial competition over dwindling resources drives seasonal, violent clashes, a pattern consistent with documented farmer-herder fatalities in Bassa LGA and across Plateau State in recent years. To mitigate these conflicts, the study recommends establishing community-led reforestation programmes, implementing strict local bylaws to penalize uncontrolled bush burning, and developing climate-resilient grazing corridors equipped with earth dams or solar-powered boreholes to defuse resource competition. This research contributes to the attainment of SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions).

Trends; Climate Change; Pattern; Farmers; Herders

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