Geospatial and Geophysical Assessment of Climate-Driven Coastal Environmental Impacts in Selected Niger Delta Communities, Rivers State, Nigeria (1994–2024)

Climate-driven coastal degradation is creating increasingly difficult environmental management and Environmental Impact Assessment challenges in the Niger Delta. This study integrates remote sensing, geographic information systems, coastal-vulnerability analysis, climate records, and community perceptions to assess environmental change in Bonny, Andoni, Opobo-Nkoro, and Kula, Rivers State, Nigeria, between 1994 and 2024. Landsat imagery from four temporal epochs was analysed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System with 80 transects. The Coastal Vulnerability Index was calculated from geomorphology, coastal slope, relative sea-level change, significant wave height, tidal range, shoreline-change rate, and vegetation loss. Mangrove change was assessed using NDVI- and MVI-based classification, while temperature and rainfall trends were estimated from Nigerian Meteorological Agency records. Relative sea-level change was estimated by combining geocentric sea-level trends with vertical-land-motion information rather than treating satellite altimetry alone as relative sea level. The results indicate widespread shoreline retreat. Mean end-point erosion rates were −2.88 m/yr in Andoni, −2.42 m/yr in Bonny, −1.32 m/yr in Opobo, and −0.91 m/yr in Kula. Cumulative estimated land loss was 44.26 km², with 65–90% of transects showing net erosion. The estimated relative sea-level trend was +5.291 mm/yr, with uncertainty in the separate contributions of geocentric sea-level rise and land subsidence. Mean annual temperature increased by 0.0327°C/yr, while rainfall showed a weak negative trend. Mangrove loss was estimated at 6,187 ha, with accelerated loss during 2015–2024. Andoni and Bonny were classified as Very High vulnerability, while Opobo and Kula were classified as High vulnerability. Petroleum activity is recognised as a compounding stressor through hydrocarbon-related subsidence, dredging, access canals, reclamation, industrial infrastructure, oil pollution, and mangrove clearing. The separate contribution of these processes to shoreline retreat and vertical land motion could not be quantified; therefore, the shoreline rates represent net responses to combined climatic, geomorphic, and anthropogenic forcing. Adaptation projections were interpreted as conditional screening estimates. Benefit–cost ratios were not validated because the cost data, damage functions, discount rate, intervention effectiveness, and uncertainty analysis were not sufficiently specified.

coastal vulnerability assessment, DSAS, geospatial analysis, Niger Delta

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