AGOA and Nigeria-United States Economic Relations in the 21st Century

This research empirically analyzes the impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) on the U.S.-Nigeria relations through legislative, export performance, structural constraints, and institutional analysis of U.S.-Nigeria trade relations. The approach combines quantitative trade data compiled from the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), 2024 AGOA Biennial Report, Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics, and a literature survey; policy document assessment; and institutional examination of the Commercial and Investment Partnership (CIP). It indicates that Nigeria leads its recipients in volumes exported (in 2023 U.S. $3.8 bn or 42.26% of U.S. $9.7bn AGOA imports) but petrol forms part of nearly 88.26% export value while average non-oil exports stands below 10.88%, this shows that 25 years of the AGOA has failed to catalyze the export diversification of the economy. Among critical obstacles to Nigeria's realization of trade benefits under AGOA include a lack of infrastructure facilities and adherence to standards, exchange rate fluctuations, and lack of certainty caused by annual re-enlistment. A sectoral approach-based framework provided by the 2024 CIP across the digital economy, agriculture, and infrastructure may yet maximize benefits. However with recent limited AGOA tenure of extension until December 2026 and subsequent shift of U.S. Trade policy to match reciprocity and win-win cooperation, Nigeria risks losing gains with greater uncertainty ahead, and would do well to leverage on its AFCTA strategy to effectively hedge against a loss in favorable trade terms and benefits. The study concludes that while a considerable flow of trade has existed within the bilateral framework under AGOA, its primary diversification objectives have yet to be met and require concerted and collaborative programmatic reforms at both the legislative and the domestic policy level for preferential trade provisions to effectively contribute to national economic gains.

Trade policy to match reciprocity and win-win cooperation

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