Time Series Analysis of Reported Cases of Birth Complications in Benue State (A Case Study of General Hospital, North Bank Makurdi)

This study focused on analysing the reported cases of birth complications in Makurdi, Benue State. The data for this study is a secondary data obtained from the Medical Record Book of General Hospital North Bank, Makurdi, Benue State from January, 2020 to December, 2022. The statistical software such as Eviews and Minitab was used for the overall statistical analysis for this research work. From the research findings, the reported cases of birth complication for the period of 36 months (2020 – 2022) was found to be stationary. Also, it was found to have quadratic trend analysis model; hence the general movement can be predicted over time. In the research study ARMA (1, 0, 1) model was found to be the best fit for the time series data on reported cases of birth complications for the period of time covered. Based on the analysis carried out, the Cases of birth complications at time t-1 negatively affects the terms of birth rate at time t, hence a knowledge of the immediate past value of reported cases of birth complication in General Hospital North Bank Makurdi in Benue State can be useful in forecasting the future values. Due to the way the past values of reported cases of birth complications negatively affect the present values, it was recommended that policies should be made to improve the measures that can help in birth complications.

Birth, Model, Time, Rate, Complications

1. AbouZahr, C., de Savigny, D., Mikkelsen, L., Setel, P. W., Lozano, R., Nichols, E., Notzon, F., & Lopez, A. D. (2015). Civil registration and vital statistics: progress in the data revolution for counting and accountability. The Lancet, 386(10001), 1373-1385. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Anore, A., Geltore, T. E., & Taye, A. (2021). Effectiveness of focused antenatal care in reducing maternal mortality in developing countries: A systematic review. Journal of Pregnancy and Child Health, 8(4), 412. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Emaikwu, S. O. (2012). Fundamentals of research methods and statistics. Selfers Academic Press Limited [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Geltore, T. E., & Anore, A. (2021). The role of antenatal care in preventing pregnancy-related complications: A review of evidence. International Journal of Nursing and Midwifery, 13(2), 45-58. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Ministry of Health. (2021). Nigeria national quality of care for RMNCAEH+N costed annual operational plan 2021-2022. Federal Ministry of Health Nigeria. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Say, L., Chou, D., Gemmill, A., Tunçalp, Ö., Moller, A. B., Daniels, J., Gülmezoglu, A. M., Temmerman, M., & Alkema, L. (2014). Global causes of maternal death: a WHO systematic analysis. The Lancet [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Global Health, 2(6), e323-e333. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(14)70227-X [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Souza, J. P. (2019). The Nigeria Near-Miss and Maternal Death Survey: collaborative research generating information for action. BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, 126(S3), [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. 5-6. https://doi.org/10.1111/1471-0528.15749 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. United Nations. (2015). Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. United Nations. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. United States Agency for International Development. (2016). Acting on the call: Ending preventable child and maternal deaths report. USAID. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. UNICEF. (2022). Maternal and newborn health coverage: A review of the evidence. United Nations Children's Fund. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Wardlaw, T., You, D., Newby, H., Anthony, D., & Chopra, M. (2022). Levels and trends in child mortality: Report 2022. UNICEF, WHO, World Bank Group, United Nations Population Division. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. World Health Organization. (2016). WHO recommendations on antenatal care for a positive pregnancy experience. World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241549912 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Wylie, A., Pierson, S., Goto, K., & Giampaoli, J. (2021). A systematic review and narrative synthesis of antenatal nutrition education interventions. Midwifery, 95, 102922. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]