Modelling the Influence of Climate Change on Runoff and Hydropower Generation in Kainji Hydropower Station, Niger State, Nigeria

This study was carried out to examine the potential influence of climate change on hydropower generation in Kainji Hydropower Project, Niger State for the period 1967-2024 and predict its future effects on hydropower generation. The study uses long term historical data on rainfall, minimum and maximum air temperature, runoff peak discharge and evapotranspiration to investigate observed hydro-climatic variability and climate change and project future hydropower generation. The study uses Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests to detect monotonic trends in the hydro-climatic variables and hydropower generation and their magnitude with MAKESENS_1_0 application. The Box-Jenkins methodology was used to build an Auto regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model for mean temperature, peak runoff, annual rainfall and hydropower generation. The results indicate significant increase in temperature, rainfall, runoff, and hydropower generation while evapotranspiration declined. The ARIMA model identified for runoff is ARIMA (3, 3, 1) with R2 of 0.519 while hydropower generation has ARIMA (2, 1, 1) model with an R2 of 0.155. The different models were evaluated with the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and validated. The models were therefore adequate and appropriate for the forecast of future runoff and hydropower generation. The results shows that runoff and hydropower generation will likely increase under current condition. The study recommends improving hydropower infrastructure to optimize increased water availability for hydropower generation in Kainji station.

Hydropower, Climate Change, ARIMA, Trend and Runoff peak

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