Relationship between Climatic Variables and the Production of Maize, Rice, Sorghum and Cowpea in Kaduna State, Nigeria (2010-2025)

This study examined the relationship between climatic variables and the production of maize, rice, sorghum and cowpea in Kaduna State, Nigeria, over sixteen years, 2010 to 2025. Sixteen years of crop yield data obtained from the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services and the National Bureau of Statistics were matched with corresponding climatic variables derived from Nigerian Meteorological Agency rainfall and temperature records, including total rainfall, dry spell frequency, rainfall onset and cessation dates, length of the growing season, and air temperature, and the relationships were quantified using multiple linear regression. Maize production ranged from 798.43 to 943.19 metric tons, with a coefficient of variation of 5.32 percent, and the fitted model explained 78 percent of yield variation, with rainfall and dry spell frequency as the strongest predictors. Sorghum production ranged from 812 to 927.75 metric tons, and the model explained 86 percent of yield variation, with rainfall, dry spells and air temperature all statistically significant. Rice production ranged from 300 to 470 metric tons, with a coefficient of variation of approximately 11.7 percent, and the model explained 89 percent of yield variation, with rainfall and minimum temperature as significant predictors. Cowpea production ranged from 100.07 to 195.45 kilograms per hectare, with a coefficient of variation of 31 percent, the highest among the four crops, and the model explained 87 percent of yield variation, with rainfall and dry spell frequency as highly significant predictors. Predictive validation using root mean square error confirmed strong model reliability, with deviations of 13 kilograms per hectare for maize, 11.29 for sorghum, 9.32 for rice and 9.99 for cowpea. Across all four crops, rainfall and dry spell frequency emerged as the most consistent determinants of yield, while the strength and direction of onset, cessation, temperature and growing season effects varied by crop. The study recommends crop-specific climate advisory services, expanded access to dry-spell-tolerant varieties, and the integration of climate-yield regression models into seasonal agricultural planning in Kaduna State.

Climate-Yield Relationship, Maize, Rice, Sorghum

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