The Impact of Economic Growth, Global Peace Index, and Inflation on International Immigration to Indonesia

International immigration plays an increasingly important role in shaping Indonesia’s demographic structure and economic development trajectory. Alongside traditional economic determinants, national security conditions have emerged as critical factors influencing cross-border migration decisions. This study aims to examine the effects of economic growth, the Global Peace Index (GPI), and inflation on international immigration to Indonesia. Annual time series data covering the period 2005–2024 were analyzed using multiple linear regression, incorporating dummy variables to represent different levels of GPI classifications.
The empirical results reveal that economic growth has a positive and statistically significant effect on international immigration (β = 164,908; p < 0.001), indicating that improved economic performance enhances Indonesia’s attractiveness as a destination country. In contrast, high instability conditions (D2) have a significant negative impact on migration inflows (β = –657,414; p < 0.001), suggesting that deteriorating security conditions discourage international migrants. Meanwhile, moderate instability (D1) and inflation do not exhibit statistically significant effects, implying that migrants may be less sensitive to moderate fluctuations in peace conditions and price levels.
The overall model demonstrates strong explanatory power, accounting for 93.3% of the variation in international immigration (R² = 0.933; p < 0.001). These findings underscore the importance of both economic performance and national security in shaping migration patterns to developing countries such as Indonesia. This study contributes to the migration literature by integrating peace and security indicators into an economic-demographic framework, offering a more comprehensive understanding of the determinants of international migration.

International immigration; Economic growth; Global Peace Index

1. Beine, M., Docquier, F., & Schiff, M. (2016). International migration, transfers and development: Essays in honor of Oded Stark. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27174-7 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Bove, V., & Böhmelt, T. (2016). Does armed conflict impact international migration? Evidence from panel data. Journal of Peace Research, 53(4), 418–431. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343315622095 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Bren, M. (2019). Migration and peace: The role of security in shaping migration flows. International Journal of Migration Studies, 7(2), 45–62. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Cantarero, D., Sánchez, M., & Torres, R. (2023). Migrant inflows and economic growth in Europe: Labor force effects. European Economic Review, 150, 104423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104423 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Chernobay, V., Ivanov, P., & Kovalenko, S. (2023). Migration, remittances, and economic development in emerging economies. World Development Perspectives, 30, 100502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2023.100502 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Czaika, M., & de Haas, H. (2013). The effectiveness of immigration policies. Population and Development Review, 39(3), 487–508. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00609.x [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Das, S. (2024). Global peace and migration: Evidence from Asia and the Americas. Journal of International Migration, 22(1), 14–29. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Djuwita, R., & Suryanto, B. (2021). Regional disparities and internal migration in Indonesia. Indonesian Journal of Population Studies, 14(2), 55–74. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., & Startz, R. (2014). Macroeconomics (12th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Erkisi, R. (2023). Skilled migration and economic growth in Canada: Evidence from 2000–2020. Canadian Journal of Economics, 56(1), 115–136. https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12456 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Grogger, J., & Hanson, G. H. (2011). Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants. Journal of Development Economics, 95(1), 42–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.01.002 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Indirwan, D. (2015). Inflation and migration patterns in Indonesia. Journal of Southeast Asian Economics, 32(2), 77–92. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Institute for Economics and Peace. (2024). Global Peace Index 2024: Measuring peace and security. https://www.visionofhumanity.org/global-peace-index/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. International Monetary Fund. (2016). World economic outlook: Subdued demand: Symptoms and remedies. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. International Monetary Fund. (2025). Migration and macroeconomic stability: The US experience (Working Paper). https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Islam, R., & Nazara, S. (2000). Economic growth, employment, and poverty in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 36(1), 29–57. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074910012331329957 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Kitov, I., & Kitov, O. (2023). Okun’s law revisited: Evidence from the US economy. Economic Modelling, 121, 106034. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106034 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Kovalchuk, I. (2019). Migration and security: How peace levels influence international flows. Migration Studies Review, 11(1), 25–40. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. 20.Kulinich, A., Novak, P., & Petrov, M. (2024). The economic impact of migration on Poland’s GDP. Eastern European Economics, 62(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2024.1884567 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. Lisani, I., Wahyudi, S., & Putra, F. (2020). Inflation and unemployment dynamics in ASEAN countries. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 37(2), 123–145. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. Meo, M. S., Khurshid, M., & Malik, R. (2018). Asymmetric effects of inflation and unemployment on poverty in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 57(4), 455–478. https://doi.org/10.30541/v57i4IIpp.455-478 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71–S102. https://doi.org/10.1086/261725 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. Smith, A. (2007). The wealth of nations (Reprint ed.). Modern Library. ttps:// https://lccn.loc.gov/2002564559 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

26. Tualaka, J., Putra, A., & Santoso, R. (2023). Inflation and migration in Indonesia: Evidence from 2005–2022. Indonesian Journal of Population Economics, 18(3), 41–59. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

27. World Bank. (2013). World development report 2013: Jobs. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9610-4 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

28. World Bank. (2022). Indonesia economic quarterly: Navigating inflationary pressures. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/publication/economic-quarterly [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• The Relationship Between Technological Progress and Human Capital Development: Regional Comparison in China
• Appraising the Vulnerability of the Female Gender and the Disruption of Social Protection in the Light of Sdgs 1 and 4: Issues in African Literature
• Microfinance and Women’s Empowerment in Rural Bangladesh: Progress and Challenges