Transmission System Resilience and Grid Collapse Frequency in Nigeria: An Empirical Assessment of Protection Coordination Quality, Corridor Redundancy, and Spinning-Reserve Margins (2000–2025)

Nigeria’s national electricity transmission grid has collapsed more than one hundred times since the unbundling of the National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) in 2005, imposing recurring economic losses estimated in hundreds of billions of naira annually and eroding investor confidence in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI). This study examines the resilience of Nigeria’s transmission system between 2000 and 2025, investigating the extent to which protection-relay coordination quality, transmission corridor redundancy, and spinning-reserve margin explain the frequency of total and partial grid collapses, system-restoration time, and cascading-failure occurrence, with the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) dispatch practices modeled as a moderating variable. A mixed-methods concurrent triangulation design was adopted, combining a 26-year secondary time-series dataset drawn from Transmission Company of Nigeria, Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc, and NISO disturbance reports with semi-structured interviews of 24 transmission and system-operations engineers. Descriptive trend analysis, Pearson correlation, and multiple regression were applied to the quantitative data, whereas thematic analysis was performed on the qualitative data. The findings show a statistically significant inverse relationship between the quality of protection coordination and the frequency of collapse (r = -0.68, p < .01), a significant positive relationship between corridor redundancy and system resilience, and a critical threshold effect below which the risk of cascading-failure is sharply increased by the spinning-reserve margins. Dispatch practice was found to moderate these relationships substantially, weakening the protective effect of technical redundancy when adequate reserve scheduling is not accompanied by merit-order dispatch. This study recommends investment in adaptive protection schemes, targeted corridor duplication on priority axes, and reserve-margin policy reform anchored on a minimum operating reserve rule and provides an evidence base for NESI regulatory and operational decision-making.

transmission system resilience; grid collapse; protection coordination; spinning reserve; Nigeria Independent System Operator; cascading failure; NESI

1. Adepoju, G. A., Komolafe, O. A., & Aborisade, D. O. (2016). Power system contingency analysis of the Nigerian 330 kV transmission network. Nigerian Journal of Technology, 35(3), 604–612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.njtech.2016.09.010.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Adom, P. K. (2019). Electricity reliability and industrial performance in Ghana: A regional comparative assessment. Energy Policy, 128, 517–528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energypolicy.2019.09.010.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Aliyu, U. O., Musa, B. U., & Danjuma, S. B. (2018). Assessment of protective relay coordination on the Nigerian transmission network. Journal of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, 13(2), 45–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jee.2018.09.010.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Amadi, H. N., & Efe-Uwolo, U. (2020). Gas supply constraints and spinning reserve adequacy in the Nigerian power system. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(4), 233–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepol.2020.03.007. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173–1182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsp.1986.1173. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Bie, Z., Lin, Y., Li, G., & Li, F. (2017). Battling the extreme: A study on the power system resilience. Proceedings of the IEEE, 105(7), 1253–1266. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006). Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative Research in Psychology, 3(2), 77–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qrp.2006.01.007. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Creswell, J. W., & Plano Clark, V. L. (2018). Designing and conducting mixed methods research (3rd ed.). SAGE Publications. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Emodi, N. V., & Boo, K. J. (2015). Sustainable energy development in Nigeria: Current status and policy options. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 51, 356–381. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renewsssen.2015.09.010.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. (2022). System adequacy and Reserve Margin Report 2021/2022reserve margin report 2021/2022. Eskom. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Hollnagel, E., Woods, D. D., & Leveson, N. (Eds.). (2006). Resilience Engineeringengineering: Concepts and Preceptsprecepts. Ashgate Publishing. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Ibrahim, M., & Ariwa, E. (2018). Root-cause analysis of cascading failures in the Nigerian power grid using event-tree methods. International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems Engineering, 11(1), 12–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijes.2018.09.007. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Kirschen, D., & Strbac, G. (2004). Fundamentals of power system economics. New York: JohnJohn Wiley & Sons. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Manufacturers Association of Nigeria. (MAN). (2022). Economic review of manufacturersManufacturers' economic review: Impact of electricity supply on production costscosts. MAN, Research Research and Documentation DepartmentDepartment. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Nigerian Electricity Regulatory CommissionCommission (NERC). (2022). Quarterly Reportreport on the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industryelectricity supply industry. NERC. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Nigerian Electricity Regulatory CommissionCommission (NERC). (various years). Annual Technical and Market Reportstechnical and market reports. NERC. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Olabisi, L. A., Adebayo, I. G., & Oyedeji, K. O. (2019). Trend analysis of system collapse on the Nigerian national grid. Nigerian Journal of Engineering Research, 24(2), 88–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nigeriajournal.2019.01.004.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Oseni, M. O. (2011). An analysis of the power sector performance in Nigeria. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(9), 4765–4774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renewsssen.2011.09.010.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Panteli, M., & Mancarella, P. (2015). The grid: Stronger, bigger, smarter? Presenting a conceptual framework of power system resilience. IEEE Power &and Energy Magazine, 13(3), 58–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ipes.2015.09.010.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. Punch Newspapers. December 28, 2022(2022, December 28). Nigeria’s's national grid collapses 46 times in 3three years —Tennis Consumer Network TCN data. Punch. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Sambo, A. S., Garba, B., Zarma, I. H., & Gaji, M. M. (2012). Electricity generation and the present challenges in the Nigerian power sector. Journal of Energy Technologies and Policy, 2(4), 32–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenp.2012.09.010.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. The TransmissionTransmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). (2020). Report on grid disturbance and system collapse,Grid disturbance and system collapse report, 2019–2020. TCN System Operation DepartmentDepartment. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. The TransmissionTransmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). (2023). Annual Technical Reporttechnical report. TCN. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. Weick, K. E., & Sutcliffe, K. M. (2001). Managing the unexpected: Assuring high performance in an age of complexity. New York: JosseyJossey-Bass. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. World Bank. (2021). Nigeria’s power sector’s recovery power sector recovery performance for results program: Implementation status reportreport. World Bank Group. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Assessment of the Role of Artificial Intelligence in Repositioning TVET for Economic Development in Nigeria
• Teachers’ Use of Assure Model Instructional Design on Learners’ Problem Solving Efficacy in Secondary Schools in Bungoma County, Kenya
• “E-Booksan Ang Kaalaman”: Development, Validation, and Utilization of Electronic Book in Academic Performance of Grade 9 Students in Social Studies
• Analyzing EFL University Students’ Academic Speaking Skills Through Self-Recorded Video Presentation
• Major Findings of The Study on Total Quality Management in Teachers’ Education Institutions (TEIs) In Assam – An Evaluative Study