Climate Change and Performance of the Agricultural Sector in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Approach

International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI) | Volume VII, Issue VI, June 2020 | ISSN 2321–2705

Climate Change and Performance of the Agricultural Sector in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Approach

Ibeinmo Friday Cookey^1*, Donny Sigah Ayibazuomuno^2
1,2Department of Economics. Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, University of Africa, Toru- Orua, Bayelsa State, Nigeria
*Corresponding Author

Abstract: – The paper investigated the effect of climate change on agricultural sector performance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2018. Agricultural sector output was disaggregated into crop, livestock, forestry, and fishery. The selected climate change variables are temperature, rainfall, and greenhouse gas emission. Data were collected from the CBN Statistical Bulletin and the Climate Change Knowledge Portal published by the World Bank. The pre-estimation (unit root and bond co integration) tests revealed the time series are integrated of order 0 and 1 and that a long run relationship only exists among the selected variables in the crop and fishery output models. The study found out that, while temperature had negative impact on crop and fishery production, it had positive results on livestock and forestry production. Secondly, while rainfall had positive results on crop and fishery production, it was found to have negative impact on livestock output. Food security is threatened by climate change in Nigeria. Hence, ministries and agencies of the government must work to achieve some remarkable feat in reduction of climate change in Nigeria. Specifically, government active participation in the crusade to save the environment by policies formulation and affirmative action by supporting agencies like Nigeria Meteorological Agencies, NEMA, and National Orientation agency in their drive for safer environment is highly recommended.

Keywords: Temperature, Rainfall, Total Greenhouse Emission, Crop, Livestock, Forestry, Fishery

I. INTRODUCTION

The agricultural sector maintains a multiplier effect on any nation’s industrial fabrics and socio-economic because of the universal identity of the sector (Ogen, 2007). It has the prospects to be the economic and industrial starting post from which the country’s development can be launched (Stewart 2000). This sector remains the ultimate source of living for most rural communities in developing countries in general. In Africa, agriculture generates employment for more than 60 per cent of the population and contributes about 30% of Gross Domestic Product (Kandlinkar and Risbey, 2000). Rain-fed farming have the power to influence agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa, covering about 97% of total farmland and discloses agricultural production to excessive seasonal rainfall changes (Alvaro, Tingju, Katrin, Richard and Claudia 2009). In Nigeria, agriculture is the utmost producer of food and employer of labour employing about 60-70 per cent of the population (Manyong, Ikpi, Olayemi, Yusuf, Omonoma, Okoruwa, and Idachaba, 2005).

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