The Second Demographic Dividend: The Challenge for Uganda

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS) | Volume IV, Issue VIII, August 2020 | ISSN 2454–6186

The Second Demographic Dividend: The Challenge for Uganda

James Kizza, Amonya David, Kigosa Nathan

Department of Economics and Statistics, Kyambogo University

Abstract:
Purpose: To investigate the challenges of Uganda’s demographic structure in relation to the country’s ability to harness a demographic dividend
Design/Methodology/Approach: We analyze secondary data from the World Bank data base on Uganda for the period 1983 to 2017. This data is supplemented with secondary data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics. We run a multiple regression test to enable us predict the likely contribution of the selected demographic characteristic towards the country’s GDP per capita growth and check the robustness of the model by conducting various tests such as the Breusch Godfrey and Arch tests.
Findings: Results show that: GDP growth, age dependency ratio– young & old and annual urban population growth have a positive impact on per capita GDP growth while young dependency ratio, total population, annual population growth and mortality under 5 have a negative impact on per capita GDP. Collectively, the demographic characteristics studied explain 93.9% towards the country’s potential to harness the demographic dividend (Adjusted R-square 0.9391; p‹0.000).
Practical implications: Although there exists studies relating to demographic characteristics to the demographic dividend, none of the studies identified particularly deals with Uganda singularly. Most studies study Uganda in relation to other countries. This study handles Uganda’s case to exploit the demographic dividend given the studied demographic structure of the country. The study brings to light that with the right policies and institutions in place based on evidence provided by the study, the potential for Uganda enjoying the demographic dividend exists.
Originality/value: This study shows how Uganda can exploit her demographic structure to enjoy a demographic dividend

Key words: Demographic dividend; demographic structure; mindset; demographic transition

JEL Codes: J11, J13, O10

I. INTRODUCTION

The African Union Agenda 2063 lists among its aspirations the ability to effectively harness the potential of its demographic structure with emphasis on the women and youths to achieve development. The large proportion of the youth in relation to other ages is viewed as a key potential to drive Africa’s growth once effectively utilized with the right skills and mindset.

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