Geospatial Intelligence and the Transformation of Counterinsurgency in Nigeria, 1999-2025: Implications for Africa's Changing Security Order

This article examines the role of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) in the transformation of counterinsurgency operations in Nigeria from 1999 to 2025, situating these developments within the broader dynamics of Africa's evolving security order. Despite significant investments in satellite observation systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and geospatial data infrastructures, the operational effectiveness of these technologies remains uneven. The central argument advanced is that the impact of GEOINT on counterinsurgency is contingent not merely on technological acquisition, but on the extent of its institutional integration, strategic application, and alignment with existing security frameworks. Methodologically, the study adopts a qualitative historical-analytical approach grounded exclusively in secondary sources that includes peer-reviewed journal articles, academic books, policy documents, defence reports, and publications from governmental and international organisations. Through a critical interrogation of these materials, the article reconstructs the evolution of Nigeria's geospatial capabilities and assesses their application within counterinsurgency campaigns, particularly in the North-East theatre of operations. The analysis identifies a persistent disjuncture between capability and utilisation, shaped by institutional fragmentation, inadequate technical capacity, weak inter-agency coordination, and broader political and governance challenges. Notwithstanding these constraints, GEOINT has contributed to incremental shifts in operational practice which includes enhanced situational awareness, improved targeting precision, and efforts toward minimizing civilian casualties that is reflecting a gradual transition from predominantly kinetic approaches to more intelligence-driven counterinsurgency strategies. The article further argues that Nigeria's experience offers important perceptions into the role of geospatial intelligence in Africa's emerging security architecture. It underscores the necessity of strengthening institutional frameworks, investing in human capital, and fostering synergy between technological systems and local intelligence networks. In doing so, the study contributes to ongoing debates in security and strategic studies by advancing a critical perspective that moves beyond technological determinism to emphasise the socio-political conditions shaping the effectiveness of geospatial intelligence in counterinsurgency.

Geospatial intelligence, GEOINT, counterinsurgency, Nigeria, Boko Haram, ISWAP, satellite surveillance

1. National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA), 'About NASRDA,' accessed March 2026, https://central.nasrda.gov.ng; GlobalSecurity.org, 'Nigeria Space Programs,' accessed March 2026, https://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/nigeria/index.html. Accessed on April 9, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. International Crisis Group, 'Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II): The Boko Haram Insurgency,' Africa Report No. 216 (Brussels: ICG, 2014), 1-5. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Robert M. Clark, The Technical Collection of Intelligence (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2011), 211-215. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. David Kilcullen, The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. The US Army/Marine Corps, Counterinsurgency Field Manual, U.S. Army Field Manual No. 3-24, Marine Corps Warfighting Publication No. 3-33.5, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2006) [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Paul Staniland, Networks of Rebellion: Explaining Insurgent Cohesion and Collapse (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2014), 2-18. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. David Galula, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1964; repr. 2006), 63. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Robert M. Clark, The Technical Collection of Intelligence (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2011). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Steve Isakowitz, Space Agenda: Informing the Future of Space, Aerospace Corporation, Centre for Space policy and Strategy, (2021), chrome-extension://kdpelmjpfafjppnhbloffcjpeomlnpah/https://csps.aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2021-09/Aerospace_CompilationBk_20210401_Web.pdf. Accessed on May 19, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. P. W. Singer, Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century (New York: Penguin, 2009). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Martin Libicki, et al., Byting Back: Regaining Information Superiority Against 21st-Century Insurgents (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2007). chrome-extension://kdpelmjpfafjppnhbloffcjpeomlnpah/https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA472417.pdf. Accessed on May 19, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Medea Benjamin, Drone Warfare: Killing by Remote Control (London: Verso, 2013). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Andrew Cockburn, Kill Chain: The Rise of the High-Tech Assassins (London: Verso, 2015). https://www.amazon.com/Kill-Chain-Rise-High-Tech-Assassins/dp/0805099263#. Accessed on May 19, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Audrey Kurth Cronin, How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns (Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2009), 195-216. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Toyin Falola and Matthew Heaton, A History of Nigeria (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Suleiman Barnawi, 'Boko Haram: Between Islamic Fundamentalism and Terrorism,' Global Journal of Interdisciplinary Social Sciences 5, no. 1 (2016): 13-21. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. John Campbell, Nigeria and the Nation-State: Rethinking Diplomacy with the Postcolonial World (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2021). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Adewunmi J. Falode, 'Hybrid Doctrine: The Grand Strategy for Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism Operations in Nigeria,' Defence Against Terrorism Review 9, no. 19 (2019): 7-31. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Ayodele P. Olowonihi and M. O. Musa, “Intelligence Gathering and Its Contribution to Nigeria’s National Security: A Critical Assessment,” The American Journal of Interdisciplinary Innovations and Research 6, no. 11 (2024):165, [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. https://theamericanjournals.com/index.php/tajiir/article/view/5632. Accessed on April 22, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Olowonihi and Musa, “Intelligence Gathering and Its Contribution to Nigeria’s National Security,” 165. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. Usman Tar, ed., Routledge Handbook on Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Insurgency in Africa (London: Routledge, 2021). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. Alexander Thurston, Jihadists of North Africa and the Sahel: Local Politics and Rebel Groups (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. The G5 Sahel: An African (French) Solution to an African Problems. https://www.cfr.org/articles/g5-sahel-african-and-french-solution-african-problem Accessed on April 13, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. Tony Roberts, and Admire Mare, ed Digital Surveillance in Africa: Power, Agency, and Rights, London: Zed Books, 2025, DOI: 10.5040/9781350422117 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

26. Kevin Donovan, 'Mobile Money, More Freedom? The Impact of M-PESA's Network Power on Development as Freedom,' Journal of African Development 14, no. 1 (2012): 31-60. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

27. RSDI, 'The Rise of the Satellites: How Geospatial Intelligence is Transforming the Security Sector,' https://rsdi.ae/en/publications/the-rise-of-the-satellites-how-geospatial-intelligence-is-transforming-the-security-sector. Accessed March 26, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

28. Staniland, Networks of Rebellion, 14. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

29. Olowonihi and Musa, “Intelligence Gathering and Its Contribution to Nigeria’s National Security,” 142. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

30. Declan Amaraegbu, 'Failure of Human Intelligence, Boko Haram and Terrorism in Nigeria,' Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa 15, no. 4 (2013): 79-95. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

31. Olowonihi and Musa, “Intelligence Gathering and Its Contribution to Nigeria’s National Security,” 142-165; [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

32. Bashir Bala and Usman A. Tar, 'Regional Cooperation in West Africa: Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Insurgency,' African Security, 14, no. 2 (2021): 186-207. doi:10.1080/19392206.2021.1929747. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

33. Abraham Ename Minko, 'Emerging Technologies in Boko Haram's Operations and Counter-Terrorism Efforts in Central Africa,' Journal of Terrorism Studies 7, no. 1 (2025): Article 3. Pp. 1-16 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

34. RSDI, 'The Rise of the Satellites.' [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

35. United States Army, Threat Tactics Report: Boko Haram (Fort Leavenworth: TRADOC G2, 2015), 12-18, https://info.publicintelligence.net/USArmy-BokoHaram.pdf. Accessed on March 26, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

36. Kilcullen, Counterinsurgency, 29–33. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

37. Ifeanyichukwu Michael Abada et al., 'National Interests and Regional Security in the Lake Chad: Assessing the Multinational Joint Task Force,' The Journal of Social Sciences Research 6, no. 1 (2020): 40–49. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

38. Rob Flynn and Paul Bellaby ed. Risk and the Public Acceptance of New Technologies, Institute [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

39. for Social, Cultural and Policy Research University of Salford, (New York:Palgrave Macmillan, 2007). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

40. Falode, 'Hybrid Doctrine: The Grand Strategy for Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism Operations in Nigeria,' 15–19. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

41. 39 Ikpaya Ikpaya et al., 'Quest of Nigeria into Space for Sustainable Development,' paper presented [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

42. at 14th International Conference on Space Operations, (2016). doi:10.2514/6.2016-2345. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

43. 40 IAF, ‘National Space Research and Development Agency,' Wikipedia, 'National Space Research and Development Agency,' https://www.iafastro.org/membership/all-members/national-space-research-and-development-agency-nasrda.html. Accessed on April 13, 2026,. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

44. Ikpaya et al., 'Quest of Nigeria into Space for Sustainable Development, [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

45. Olowonihi and Musa, “Intelligence Gathering and Its Contribution to Nigeria’s National Security,” 150. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

46. Ikpaya et al., 'Quest of Nigeria into Space for Sustainable Development, [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

47. Nsemba Edward Lenshie et al., 'Boko Haram, Security Architecture and Counterinsurgency in North-East, Nigeria,' Armed Forces and Society 50, no. 1 (2024): doi:10.1177/0095327X221121656. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

48. ORYX ‘A Guide to Nigeria's Military Drones,' 2021, [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

49. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/09/a-guide-to-nigerias-military-drones.html. Accessed on May 19, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

50. Space Security Portal, 'Nigeria,' accessed March 2026, https://spacesecurityportal.org/states/nigeria. Accessed on April 11, 2026.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

51. Amaraegbu, 'Failure of Human Intelligence,' 79-95. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

52. Aminu Idris and Assel Tutumlu, 'Boko Haram's Resilience and the Porosity of Nigerian Border, Ikenga International Journal of Institute of African Studies, 22, no. 1 (2021):1-21. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

53. Military Africa, 'Nigeria Acquiring Bayraktar TB2 Drone and Not Akinci,' September 2022, https://www.military.africa/2022/09/nigeria-acquiring-bayraktar-tb2-drone-and-not-akinci/. Accessed on April 13, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

54. Military Africa. “Nigeria’s Defence Space Administration Enters Drone Production.” Military Africa, November 17, 2024. https://www.military.africa/2024/11/nigerias-defence-space-administration-enters-drone-production/. Accessed on March 26, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

55. AllAfrica, 'Satellite Deployment - Key to Nigeria's National Security,' December 2025, https://allafrica.com/stories/202512080496.html. Accessed on April 13, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

56. AllAfrica, 'Satellite Deployment - Key to Nigeria's National Security.' [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

57. Francis Okpaleke et al., Drone Technology in Nigeria's Space: An Advance Warfare Against National Insecurity (ResearchGate, 2025), https://www.researchgate.net/publication/394086096. Accessed on April 13, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

58. Falode, 'Hybrid Doctrine: The Grand Strategy for Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism Operations in Nigeria,' 15-19. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

59. Olowonihi and Musa, “Intelligence Gathering and Its Contribution to Nigeria’s National Security,” 142-168. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

60. RSDI, 'The Rise of the Satellites.' [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

61. Umaru Molmela et al., “Drone Technology in Nigeria’s Space: An Advance Warfare against National Insecurity” Kwararafa Security Review, Vol 3, no 1, June 2025, pp. 184-198. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

62. Okpaleke et al., Drone Technology in Nigeria's Space, 2025. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

63. Abada et al., 'National Interests and Regional Security in the Lake Chad,' 40-49. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

64. Olowonihi and Musa, “Intelligence Gathering and Its Contribution to Nigeria’s National Security,” 142-156 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

65. Musa, ‘Defence Ministry to Strengthen Collaboration with the National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) For National Security Operations’ February 26, 2026. https://defence.gov.ng/2026/02/26/defence-ministry-to-strengthen-collaboration-with-the-national-space-research-and-development-agency-nasrda-for-national-security-operations-musa/. Accessed on April 13, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

66. Olowonihi and Musa, 'Intelligence Gathering,' 155. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

67. Ikpaya, 'Quest of Nigeria into Space for Sustainable Development,' 7-8. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

68. Olowonihi and Musa, “Intelligence Gathering and Its Contribution to Nigeria’s National Security,” 158. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

69. Punch Nigeria, 'NIGCOMSAT, Military Use Nigeria's Satellite Technology to Tackle Insecurity,' October 2024, https://punchng.com/nigcomsat-military-use-nigerias-satellite-technology-to-tackle-insecurity/. Accessed on 13 April, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

70. Aerospace Security, 'Challenges and Opportunities of Nigeria's Space Policy,' accessed March 2026, https://aerospace.csis.org/challenges-and-opportunities-of-nigerias-space-policy/. Accessed on 13 April, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

71. International Crisis Group, 'Curbing Violence in Nigeria (II),' 22-27. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

72. Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, 'The Sahel's Shifting Sands: How the Security Landscape Is Redrawing Regional Alliances,' March 2025, https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analyses/sahels-shifting-sands-how-security-landscape-redrawing-regional-alliances. Accessed on April 13, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

73. UN Security Council, 'Sahel Now Accounts for Half of Global Terror Deaths, Secretary-General Tells Security Council,' November 2025, https://press.un.org/en/2025/sc16226.doc.htm. Accessed on April 13, 2026 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

74. Global Terrorism Index 2025. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-terrorism-index-2025. Accessed on April 13, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

75. Usman Tar and Bala Bala, 'Lake Chad Basin: Emerging Regional Architecture for Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Insurgency,' in Routledge Handbook on Counter-Terrorism and Counter-Insurgency in Africa, ed. Usman Tar (London: Routledge, 2021), 379-392. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

76. Oryx., 'A Guide to Nigeria's Military Drones.' [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

77. Bala et al., 'Regional Cooperation in West Africa.' [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

78. Oryx., 'A Guide to Nigeria's Military Drones'; [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

79. Security Council Report, 'West Africa and the Sahel, April 2025 Monthly Forecast,' April 2025, https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2025-04/west-africa-and-the-sahel-14.php.. Accessed on April 13, 2026. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Global Political Economy and Educational Reforms in the Global South: An Evolutionary Study of Ghana
• Electoral Militarization and the Challenges of Free and Fair Elections in Nigeria: A Focus on the 2023 Presidential Election
• Political Awareness and Engagement in Relation to Voting Behavior among College Students
• Role of Community Leaders in Ensuring Secure Electoral Process in Nairobi City County, Kenya
• Assessing the Delivery of Local Disaster Management Services and Client Satisfaction through SERVQUAL Dimensions