Exchange Rate Policy and Non-Oil Exports in Nigeria: Evidence of Asymmetric Effects

This study is aimed at delineating the asymmetric effects of exchange rate policy on non-oil exports in Nigeria. Monthly time series data for the period, January 2008 to M, 2024, a total of 196 observations were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria, Trading Economics and National Bureau of Statistics. The Cointegrating Nonlinear ARDL model with partial sum decomposition of exchange rates was employed. To capture the effect of other relevant macro-economic variables, relative prices, world income, and Nigeria’s foreign reserves representing its capacity to produce exports, entered the model as fixed regressors. The cumulative dynamic multiplier (CDM) was employed to assess the overall impact of the exchange rate shock in order to decipher how non-oil exports adjust to equilibrium after a shock. The study found that there exists a nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between exchange rates and non-oil exports in the short-run. The error correction term (ECM) was appropriately negatively signed and highly statistically significant at the 1% level, implying that non–oil exports and exchange rates are nonlinearly cointegrated in the long-run. The symmetry test rejected the null hypothesis of symmetry in the response of non-oil exports to positive and negative changes in the short run, but failed to reject it in the long run, suggesting that in the short run exchange rate has asymmetric effect on non-oil exports. The results further show that both positive and negative changes in exchange rate were contractionary, probably due to structural, infrastructure and supply side constraints. Asymmetric plot of the CDM confirms the existence of asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on non-oil exports in Nigeria with the impact of the negative shocks on non-oil exports being much higher than those of the positive shocks. The policy implication is that policy makers may have to consider exchange rate stabilization in order to expand and diversify non-oil exports in Nigeria.

Non-oil, Exports, Exchange rates, Asymmetry, Nonlinear, partial sum decomposition.

1. Abu, N., David, J., Gamal, A.A.M. and Obi, B. (2022), Non-linear effect of Government debt on public expenditure in Nigeria: Insight from bootstrap ARDL Procedure. Organizations and markets in emerging economies, 13(1), 163 – 182. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Adeniran, I. O., (2024), Effects of Naira Depreciation on the Nigerian Economy. Global Scientific Journals, 12(4), 480-513. www.globalscientificjournal.com. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Abdulrazak I. & Mohammed, A. (2023). An Analysis of the Effect of Naira Devaluation on Nigerian Balance Of Trade. International Journal of Economics and Financial Management, 8(1), 1–29. DOI: https://doi.org/10.56201/ijefm.v8.no1.2023.pg1.29 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Akinlo, A.E., and Adjumo, V.A. (2014). Exchange rate volatility and Non-oil exports (1986 – 2008) International Business and Management 9(2): 70 – 79. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Akanbi, S.B., Alagbe, J.H.A., Yusuf, H.A., and Oluwaseyi, M.H. (2017). Exchange rate Volatility and non-oil exports in Nigeria: An empirical investigation, Journal of emerging economies and Islamic Research 5(2) 2017.5 – 15. DOI: 10.24191/jeeir.v5i2.8800 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Aliyu, A.A. Tijani, S.M., (2015). Asymmetric co-integration between exchange rate and trade balance in Nigeria. Cogent Economics and Finance 3(1): 1 – 12). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Aligholi, M.A. and Baradaran, O. (2019). Patterns of Non-oil Exports of the country affected by exchange rate fluctuation. Journal of business administration Researches. 11(21), 91 – 113. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Arize, A.C., Malindretos, J. and Igwe, E.U. (2017). Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An Asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach – International Review of Economics and Finance 49(5, May): 2017: 313-326. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Aroghene, G., & AkpobomeAkpoyibo, G. (2023). Naira swap objectives and impact on the performance of small and medium scale enterprise smes. International Journal of Management & Entrepreneurship Research, 5(4), 233–243. https://doi.org/10.51594/ijmer.v5i4.469 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Audu, N. and Obiezue, T. (2022). Exchange rate and Trade in Services Nexus in Nigeria: A non-linear ARDL Approach. Athens Journal of Business and Economics 8(1), 465-482. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Ashour, M.M. (2023). Asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate and Saudi non-oil exports. Cogent Social Sciences 9(2): DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/2331-1886.2023.2278206. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Ratha, A. (2007). The J-curve: a literature review. Applied Economics 36(13), 1377 – 1398. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Bai, J and Perron, P (1998) Estimating and testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes. Econometrica, 66:47 – 78. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Central Bank of Nigeria (2016) Exchange rate Education in Economics Series. No. 4. Pp 12-21, 29-35. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. CBN (2024, 2026) Foreign Exchange Market in Nigeria. cbn.gov.ng [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Chude, N.P. and Chude, D.I. (2023). Effect of Exchange rate Policy on non-oil Exports in Nigerian Economy. Iconic Research and Engineering Journals (IRE) 6(9) 127 – 136. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Dania, E. N,. & Ogedengbe, F. A., (2019), Impact of exchange rate volatility on non-oil exports performance in Nigeria. Open Journal of Economics and Commerce, 2(1), 32 – 39. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Edoja, P. E., Okoh, R. N., Uduehi. E. O. & Aye, G. C. (2026), Macroeconomic Drivers of Poultry Price Volatility in Nigeria: A Study of inflation and exchange rate dynamics. Commodities, 5(1), 3. https//doi.org/10.3390/commodities5010003. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Enders, W. and Granger, C.W. (1998), Unit root tests and asymmetric adjustments with an example using the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 16: 305 – 311. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. Enders and Chumrusphonlert (2004). Threshold co-integration and purchasing power parity in the pacific nations. Applied Economics, 36, 889 – 896. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Engle, R.F., and Granger, C.W.J. (1987), Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251 – 276. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. Gamal, A.M.A., David, J., Noor, M.A.M., Hussin, M.Y.M and Viswanathan, K.K. (2024). Asymmetric effect of shadow Economy on Environmental Pollution in Egypt: Evidence from Boot strap NARDL Technique. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(3), 206 -215. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.15605. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. Hansen (2000) (Hansen, B, (2000), Testing for structural change in conditional models. Journal of Econometrics, 97; 93-115) [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. Hasanov, F. (2012). The impact of real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium? RPF Working Paper No. 2012 – 005 http://ww.gwu.edu/forcpgm/2012-2005.pdf. Centre of Economic Research, Department of Economics, George Washington University, Washington, DC. USA. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. Igwe, P. A., Amaugo, A. N., Ogundana, O. M., Egere, O. M., & Anigbo, J. A. (2018). Factors affecting the investment climate, SMES productivity and entrepreneurship in Nigeria. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 7(1), 182. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2018.v7n1p182 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

26. Jordan, S, and Philip, A.Q.T (2018). Co-integration testing and dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag models. Stata Journal, 18(4), 902-923. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

27. Lawal, M., James, K. I., Longji, L. A., Yonkor, D. E, Kpanzhin, H. D., & Ezeduru, e. (2025), Impact of exchange rate fluctuation on Nigeria’s exports performance. African Journal of Management and Business Resources, 20(1), 1-14. DOI: https://doi.org/10.621154/ajmbr.2025.020.01030. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

28. Muoneke, O.B., Okere, K.I., and Onuoha, C. (2022), Extreme exchange rate dynamics and export trade in the selected oil exporting countries in Africa. Multiple asymmetric threshold non-linear ARDL approach. Journal of International trade and economic development 32(6) 854-877. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

29. Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), (2026), Nigeria’s historic non-oil performance signals a new era of economic possibilities. https://nepc.gov.ng [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

30. Ngoma, A.L., Ismail, N.W. and Yusop, Z., (2016). An Analysis of real oil prices and real exchange rates in five African countries: Applying symmetric and Asymmetric co-integration Models. Foreign Trade Review 51(2) 162 – 179 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

31. Ogbu, C.A. (2024). Exchange Rate and non-oil exports in Nigeria (1986-2021). African Journal of Economics and sustainable Development. 7(1): 36 – 55. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52589/AJESD-8JTZYJUB. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

32. Ogwuche, D.D., Ologunla, S. E. & Mohammed, A., (2026), Impact of Exchange rate regime on non-oil export in Nigeria, 2008M1 – 2024M12. Iconic Research and Engineering Journals, 9(10), 4369 – 4378. https://doi.org/10.64388/IREV9I10-1716301 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

33. Okoh, R.N. (2005) Nigeria’s non-oil export Product Mix and the competitive market place. The Union Digest 9(3 and 4), 63 - 82. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

34. Okoh, R.N. (2004a) Global Integration and the growth of Nigeria’s non-oil exports. Presented at the African Conference of CSAE Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), 21 – 22 March, 2004, Oxford, UK. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

35. Okoh, 2004b). The global market place: how far can Nigeria go with the present non-oil product mix? African Development and Poverty Reduction: The Macro-Micro Linkage. Forum Paper 2004 13 – 15, October, 2004, Summerset West, South Africa. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

36. Okonkwo N. Osmond1 & Akamike Joseph Okechukwu (2023), Non-Oil Exports, Exchange Rate Management and Economic Growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Management (IJEFM) E-ISSN 2545-5966 P-ISSN 2695-1932 . 8. (8), 19 – 34. DOI: https//doi.org/10.56201/ijefm.v8.no8.2023.pg19.34 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

37. Olugbon, B.S., Omotosho, O. and Babalola, B.H. (2017). Devaluation and Trade Balance in Nigeria: A Test of Marshall-Lerner condition. European Journal of Business and Management, 9(4) 78 – 93. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

38. Ovwasa, O. J., Okoh, R. N. and Achoja, F. O. (2026), Global food price shocks and supply responses of staple crops in Nigeria. Magna Scientia Advanced Research and Reviews, 16(01), 159 – 171. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30574/msarr.2026.16.0024 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

39. Oyinlola, M. A. (2018), Modelling Volatility Persistence and Asymmetry of Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate, CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 9 (1) 141-165. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

40. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y, and Smith, R.J. (2001), Bound’s Testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied Econometrics, 16: 289 – 326. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

41. Shin, Y., Yu, B. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2013), Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. Electronic copy obtained from papers.ssrn.com/so13/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1807745. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

42. Trade Economics, (2025), Non oil Exports in Nigeria. https://tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/non-oil-exports Accessed December, 2025. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

43. Urgessa, O. (2024). Effects of real effective exchange rate volatility on export earnings in Ethiopia: Symmetric and asymmetric effects analysis. Heliyon, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hellyon.2023.e23529. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

44. Webber, A.G, (2000), Newton’s gravity law and import prices in the Asia Pacific. Japan and the World. Economy 12: 71 – 87. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Methane Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste - Case Study in Cai Rang District, Can Tho City, Vietnam
• Youth Activism, Intentional Integration of Policies to Raise Awareness on Climate Change Action among the Youth
• Breathing Spaces: Environmental & User Experience in Dhanmondi and Zigatola Multistoried Apartments, Dhaka, Bangladesh
• Effects of Solid Waste Disposal on Soil Quality in Makurdi Metropolis, Benue State, Nigeria
• Environmental Impact of Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining in Borgu Local Government Area