Examining the Impact of Housing Supply Growth on Rental Demand in the Federal Capital City (FCC), Abuja

Understanding the dynamics of housing markets in rapidly urbanizing regions such as the Federal Capital City (FCC) of Abuja, Nigeria, is essential for comprehending the relationship between rental demand and housing supply growth. This study examines the impact of housing supply expansion on rental demand across the FCC, a planned city that has experienced significant population growth and economic development since its establishment as Nigeria's capital in 1991. Drawing on secondary data compiled from Federal Capital Development Authority (FCDA) housing records, PropertyPro and Nigeria Property Centre rental listing databases, and the National Bureau of Statistics, the research covers the period from 2010 to 2024. These quantitative supply and pricing trends are complemented by qualitative insights gathered through semi-structured interviews with 15 stakeholders drawn from tenant, developer, and FCDA planner groups across five FCC zones.
Findings indicate that housing supply across the FCC grew by approximately 65 percent over the study period, with roughly 45,000 new units added predominantly in peripheral zones such as Kubwa, Nyanya, and Lugbe. Despite this expansion, the effect on rental demand has been spatially uneven. In high-demand central districts such as Maitama and Asokoro, supply growth has produced only marginal adjustments in rental pricing. Peripheral zones show modest downward rental pressure alongside vacancy rates estimated at 15 to 20 percent, reflecting a spatial mismatch between where new supply is located and where demand is concentrated. Multiple regression analysis confirms that migration inflow (beta = 0.634, p < 0.001) and job growth (beta = 0.366, p < 0.001) are the dominant predictors of rental demand, together explaining 81.2 percent of variance in rental price perceptions (R² = 0.812, F(4,395) = 426.47, p < 0.001). The study concludes that housing supply growth, while necessary, must be paired with targeted policy measures including infrastructure investment in peripheral zones, fiscal incentives for affordable housing, and regulation of speculative development.

Housing supply growth, rental demand, Federal Capital City, housing affordability, spatial disparities

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