A Tree Conflict Analysis Model of the South China Sea Dispute between China and Vietnam

Among the most disputed maritime regions in the world, the South China Sea (SCS) is considered to be one of the most contentious zones. By utilising a tree conflict analysis model to understand the disputed region, this paper aims to decipher the central conflict in the South China Sea between China and Vietnam, competing over sovereignty, maritime regions and marine resources. Firstly, the aim is to provide a historical understanding of the conflict between the two countries in the South China Sea and discuss the factors that have contributed to its escalation. In this attempt, the paper would highlight the major events that led to the intensification of the dispute between China and Vietnam while also underscoring the economic and strategic significance of the South China Sea that contributes to shaping the behaviour of the two states.
By utilising a qualitative methodology that examines the secondary sources such as official documents, policy briefs, legal documents and significant scholarly work on the subject, the paper draws its analyses from various sources. Most importantly, due attention is paid to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to examine its ability to address maritime disputes. While the efficacy of legal frameworks such as UNCLOS is significant, the study points to its limitations in its ability to resolve conflicts that are embedded in inconsistent interpretations of sovereignty. Lastly, this paper applies the tree conflict analysis model to decode the conflict between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea, which clearly demarcates between root causes, core problems and visible manifestations of the dispute and its impact on the states concerned. Although legal and diplomatic means for conflict management are important, the study concludes in its findings that a sustainable solution to the dispute lies in addressing the political and strategic factors that perpetuate the conflict, without which only short-term solutions are possible.

South China Sea, UNCLOS, Tree Conflict Analysis, China-Vietnam Relations, Maritime Disputes, Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, Maritime Security

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