Climate Change Effects on Marine Production along the Kerala Coast: Evidence from Ecological Trends and Socio-Economic Analysis

Marine fisheries along the Kerala coast constitute a major component of coastal livelihoods, regional food security, and state-level economic activity. The 590 km coastline along the Arabian Sea supports a large population of small-scale fishers whose income and employment depend heavily on marine resources. However, due to climate change owing to the greenhouse effect a rising sea surface temperature (SST) and changing monsoon dynamics is altering the oceanographic processes that sustain marine productivity. Against this background, the present study analyses the impact of climate change on marine fish production along the Kerala coast.
The study uses linear trend analysis to assess long-term changes in SST and marine landings, followed by regression modelling to check the relationship between climate variability and fish production. The results prove a statistically significant upward trend in SST, confirming sustained warming of the southeastern Arabian Sea. Whereas marine fish landings exhibit increasing interannual variability with a moderate declining tendency over time. Regression results prove a negative link between SST and marine production, indicating that rising ocean temperatures adversely affect fish productivity, particularly small pelagic species such as oil sardine known locally as Mathi or Chala the most beloved fish in the diet of malayalis.
The findings implies that climate change driven ecological instability converts into economic uncertainty for fishing communities through fluctuating catch levels and reduced fishing opportunities. The study underlines the need of climate-sensitive fisheries management, improved ocean monitoring systems, and adaptive livelihood strategies to enhance resilience among coastal populations. By mixing up ecological trends with socio-economic implications, this paper contributes to the growing literature on climate impacts in tropical marine ecosystem.

marine fisheries; climate change; Indian oil sardine; sea surface temperature; livelihoods

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