The Iranian Revolutionary Regime and US-Led Non-Proliferation Policy in the Middle-East

The 1979 Iranian Revolution replaced the Shah’s Western-backed monarchy with an Islamic Republic grounded in clerical authority, transforming U.S.–Iran relations from cooperative nuclear development to entrenched hostility. Atomic energy shifted from a symbol of modernisation to an emblem of sovereignty and resistance, with decades of sanctions, diplomatic breakdowns, and strategic escalation deepening antagonism and threatening both regional stability and the global non-proliferation regime. This study analysed the interplay between Iran’s nuclear ambitions under the revolutionary regime and U.S.-driven non-proliferation strategies through Brodie’s (1946) Nuclear Deterrence Theory, grounded in political realism. Adopting a qualitative design, it employed the documentary method and textual analysis to examine policy statements, official reports, international agreements, UN resolutions, think-tank studies, scholarly works, and credible news accounts. Findings show that since 1979, U.S.-led non-proliferation policy in the Middle East has shifted from multilateral, diplomacy-driven approaches to unilateral, coercive, and increasingly militarised strategies centred on Iran’s nuclear programme. Initiatives such as the JCPOA demonstrated that sustained diplomacy backed by coordinated sanctions could constrain nuclear development, yet the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 fractured international consensus, spurred Iranian enrichment, and heightened insecurity. This trajectory culminated in U.S. military strikes in 2025, undermining NPT norms and risking legitimisation of preventive warfare. The study concludes that overreliance on sanctions and force paradoxically strengthens the appeal of nuclear deterrence for targeted states. It recommends re-establishing a multilateral diplomatic framework with robust verification, reciprocal sanctions relief, inclusive regional security dialogues, and calibrated incentives to de-escalate tensions while preventing further proliferation.

Iran, Revolution, Non-proliferation, Middle-east

1. Abbasi, R. (2020, May 13). New warfare domains and the deterrence theory crisis. E-International Relations. https://www.e-ir.info/2020/05/13/new-warfare-domain-and-the-deterrence-theory-crisis/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Almela, H. M. (2022). Regionalising the JCPOA: The Iranian nuclear deal as a guideline for a WMD-free zone in the Middle East? (PRIF Report 13/2022). Peace Research Institute Frankfurt. https://www.prif.org/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_publikationen/prif2213_interaktiv_barrierefrei.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Arslanian, F. (2023). The impact of economic sanctions on nuclear non-proliferation: The case of Iran (2005-15). The International Spectator, 58(4), 16–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2023.2228679 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Babar, I. S., Mirza, M. N., & Qaisrani, I. H. (2021). Joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA): Prospects and challenges for global security. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 9(1), 126–132. https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2021.9113 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Bazoobandi, S. (2020). Iran nuclear programme: A brief history. In The new regional order in the Middle East (pp. 69-91). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-27885-4_4 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Brodie, B. (Ed.). (1946). The absolute weapon: Atomic power and world order. Harcourt, Brace and Company. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Congressional Research Service. (2024, August 7). U.S. sanctions on Iran (IF12452). https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12452 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Cordesman, A. H. (2000). Iran and nuclear weapons. Centre for Strategic and International Studies. p. 7. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Council on Foreign Relations. (2023, May 24). What is deterrence. https://education.cfr.org/learn/reading/what-deterrence [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Davis, Z., & Donnelly, W. H. (1992). A nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East: Background and issues. Congressional Research Service. (CRS Issue Brief, p. 3). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Etemad, A. (1987). Iran. In H. Muller (Ed.), A European non-proliferation policy: Prospects and problems (pp. 203–227). Oxford: Clarendon Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Fahmy, N., & Lewis, P. (2011). Possible elements of an NWFZ treaty in the Middle East. In K. Vignard (Ed.), Disarmament forum two: Nuclear-weapon-free-zone (pp. 39–49). United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Fayazmanesh, S. (2003). The politics of the U.S. economic sanctions against Iran. Review of Radical Political Economics, 35(3), 221–240. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. (2021, February 23). UK statement to the IAEA Board of Governors on verification and monitoring in Iran. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-statement-to-the-iaea-board-of-governors-on-verification-and-monitoring-in-iran [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. (2023, December 28). Statement on Iranian nuclear steps reported by the IAEA. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-on-iranian-nuclear-steps-reported-by-the-iaea [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. France 24. (2022, June 24). EU top diplomat bids to reverse tensions on surprise Iran visit. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220624-eu-top-diplomat-bids-to-reverse-tensions-on-surprise-iran-visit [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Hamel-Green, M. (2011). Possible elements of an NWFZ treaty in the Middle East: Peeling the orange: Regional paths to a nuclear-weapon-free world. In K. Vignard (Ed.), Disarmament forum two: Nuclear-weapon-free zone (pp. 3-13). United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDR). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Huang, X. (2016). The Iranian nuclear issue and regional security: Dilemmas, responses and the future (Sabbatical leave report). Department of Political Affairs, Middle East and West Asia Division, Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). https://hr.un.org/sites/hr.un.org/files/The%20Iranian%20Nuclear%20Issue%20and%20Regional%20Security.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (2023a, September 4). Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (Report No. GOV/2023/39). https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/23/09/gov2023-39.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (2023b, November 15). Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (Report No. GOV/2023/57). https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/documents/gov2023-57.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Iran Watch. (2023, December 19). A history of Iran's nuclear program. https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/history-irans-nuclear-program [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. Kibaroglu, M. (2007). Iran’s nuclear ambitions from a historical perspective and the attitude of the West. Middle Eastern Studies, 43(2), 223–245. https://doi.org/10.1080/00263200601114083 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. Kibaroglu, M. (2007). Iran’s nuclear ambitions from a historical perspective and the attitude of the West. Middle Eastern Studies, 43(2), 223–245. https://doi.org/10.1080/00263200601114083 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. Luzio, N. (2021). The IAEA and a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East. International Atomic Energy Agency Bulletin, 62(4). https://www.iaea.org/bulletin/the-iaea-and-a-nuclear-weapon-free-zone-in-the-middle-east [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. Maloney, S. (2015). Sanctions and the Iranian nuclear deal: Silver bullet or blunt object? Social Research, 82(4), 887–911. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

26. Masters, J., & Merrow, W. (2024, November 13). U.S. aid to Israel in four charts. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/article/us-aid-israel-four-charts [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

27. Mendenhall, E. (2020). Nuclear-weapon-free zones and contemporary arms control. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 14(4), 122-151. https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/SSQ/documents/Volume-14_Issue-4/Mendenhall.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

28. Mills, C. (2024, April 24). What is the status of the Iran nuclear deal? (Research Briefing No. 9870). UK House of Commons Library. https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9870/CBP-9870.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

29. Nair, A. (2018, May 8). A serious mistake': Allies dismayed as Trump pulls US out of Iran deal. Sky News. https://news.sky.com/story/a-serious-mistake-allies-dismayed-as-trump-pulls-us-out-of-iran-deal-11364567 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

30. Practical Law Commercial Transactions. (2018, August 8). President Trump signs executive order reimposing US sanctions on Iran. Thomson Reuters. https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/9-554-9565?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

31. Robinson, K. (2023, October 27). What is the Iran nuclear deal? Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

32. Sahimi, M. (2004, December 22). Iran’s nuclear energy program. Part V: From the United States offering Iran uranium enrichment technology to suggestions for creating catastrophic industrial failure. Payvand’s Iran News, 2. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

33. Schelling, T. C. (1960). The strategy of conflict. Harvard University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

34. U.S. Department of State. (2022, September 21). Joint statement on the JCPOA. https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-jcpoa/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

35. U.S. Department of State. (2023, September 14). U.S. sanctions on Iran’s missile and drone programs. https://www.state.gov/u-s-sanctions-on-irans-missile-and-drone-programs/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

36. U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2024, February 5). Annual threat assessment of the U.S. intelligence community. https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

37. Vaziri, H. (1986). Iran’s nuclear quest: Motivations and consequences. In R. G. C. Thomas (Ed.), The nuclear non-proliferation regime (pp. 311–321). Princeton University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

38. Vaziri, K. (1986). Nuclear weapons and the Persian Gulf. In L. R. Beres (Ed.), Security or Armageddon: Israel’s nuclear strategy (p. 142). Lexington Books. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

39. Wohlstetter, A. (1959). The delicate balance of terror. Foreign Affairs, 37(2), 211–234. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• China in South Asia and South America: Connections, Intersections and Similarities
• Prospects and Impediments to China-Africa Sports Cooperation in the Contemporary Era
• Decolonising International Relations: African Perspectives on Global Justice - The Case of the Gambia in the International Court of Justice.
• Climate - Induced Displacement and its Implications on Human Security: A Case Study of Ghana
• Evaluating the Effectiveness of ECOWAS Common External Tariff (CET) in Promoting and Protecting Local Industries in West Africa (2015 – 2024)