Mode Choice Behaviour of Non-BRT Commuters Towards a Proposed Bus Rapid Transit System: A Stated Preference Study in Karachi

This paper analyses the behaviour of non-BRT users' selection and preference for the proposed BRT lines in Karachi, Pakistan. The government proposed to implement Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines in the city of Karachi, which is in the construction and planning phase. Formerly, Karachi's public transportation system was mainly based on a local informal bus system. The preference survey was performed on three major locations in Karachi. The non-BRT respondents were asked about the current attributes of the existing mode and the proposed BRT system. This study aims to analyse attributes significant towards mode selection, like travel time, travel cost, accessibility and number of transfers, using MNL. Existing literature lacks behavioural modelling of non-BRT users in such megacities. The utility model in MNL developed in this study shows that travel time and number of transfers are more valuable for non-BRT users, whereas accessibility and cost have a relatively less impact. Sensitivity analysis also depicts that a slight increase in fare cost cannot affect the probability towards BRT. The Multinomial Logit (MNL) model was applied to calculate the model's shift towards the proposed BRT service. The results show that more than 50% of users are willing to shift from non-BRT services. The model and output of this paper can be used to strengthen the planning and financial decisions of BRT projects and also increase the demand for the proposed project by improving suggested attributes.

Travel behavior modelling, multinomial model, preference survey, travel attributes

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