Energy Portfolio Dynamics and Economic Development in Nigeria: A Multivariate Causal Exploration

Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and leading oil exporter, yet 84 million citizens lack reliable electricity. This study examines causal links between four energy sources—petroleum, natural gas, renewables, and electricity—and economic growth from 1990–2025. Using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test, Bai-Perron break tests, and DOLS estimation, findings show petroleum has unidirectional Granger-causality with GDP, renewables have bidirectional Granger-causality, electricity has the highest long-run elasticity at 1.56%, and natural gas has no significant effect despite 212 Tcf reserves. Structural breaks in 2003, 2010, and 2023 correspond to deregulation, banking consolidation, and fuel subsidy removal. Electricity offers the greatest growth returns, followed by petroleum and renewables, while natural gas remains underutilized.

Energy composition, petroleum, natural gas, renewables, electricity, economic growth, causality, Toda-Yamamoto, Nigeria

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