Strategic Foresight and Organizational Resilience: A Cross-Sector Moderated Mediation Model of Organizational Agility and Risk Governance Maturity in Corporate Organizations and Higher Institutions

This study examines the relationship between strategic foresight and organizational resilience, considering the mediating role of organizational agility and the moderating role of risk governance maturity across corporate organizations and higher education institutions. Anchored in Dynamic Capabilities Theory and a contingency perspective on risk governance, the study employed a quantitative, non-experimental, explanatory-correlational research design. A total of 500 respondents, equally distributed between the two sectors, were selected through stratified purposive sampling. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and analyzed through Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), mediation and moderation analyses, and multi-group comparisons, supported by 5,000 bootstrap resamples. The findings revealed significant positive relationships among strategic foresight, organizational agility, and organizational resilience. Organizational agility significantly mediated the relationship between strategic foresight and organizational resilience, while risk governance maturity positively moderated the relationship between strategic foresight and organizational agility, strengthening the conditional indirect effect on organizational resilience. Although variations in structural coefficients were observed between corporate organizations and higher education institutions, the multi-group comparisons revealed no statistically significant differences between the two sectors. The findings establish the importance of integrating strategic foresight, organizational agility, and risk governance maturity in strengthening organizational resilience. The resulting cross-sector moderated mediation framework contributes to strategic management and organizational governance literature by demonstrating how anticipatory capabilities, organizational adaptability, and risk governance collectively support organizational resilience. The study provides practical implications for corporate executives and higher education administrators in developing evidence-based strategies to enhance organizational preparedness, adaptability, and long-term resilience in increasingly uncertain institutional environments.

strategic foresight, organizational resilience, organizational agility, risk governance maturity

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