Factors Influencing Time to First Sexual Intercourse among Youths: Evidence from the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey Data

Authors

Mwangea Stellah

Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physical Sciences, Taita Taveta University (Kenya)

Oscar Ngesa

Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physical Sciences, Taita Taveta University (Kenya)

Alexander Kasyoki

Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physical Sciences, Taita Taveta University (Kenya)

Article Information

DOI: 10.47772/IJRISS.2026.10100017

Subject Category: Mathematics

Volume/Issue: 10/1 | Page No: 189-201

Publication Timeline

Submitted: 2025-12-25

Accepted: 2026-01-03

Published: 2026-01-19

Abstract

The timing of first sexual intercourse is a critical marker in adolescent development, influencing health, education, and social outcomes. Early sexual debut increases the risk of unintended pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and educational disruption. While several studies in sub-Saharan Africa have explored correlates of early sexual initiation, most rely on cross-sectional designs or localized samples and logistic regression to find out covariates of sex debut, few have applied survival analysis to nationally representative data in Kenya to find out factors influencing time to sex debut. The purpose of this study is to estimate the median age at first sexual intercourse and identify socio-demographic, cultural, and behavioral determinants influencing its timing among Kenyan youths, using the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS).

Keywords

Sexual debut, survival analysis, Cox PH, KDHS 2022, youths

Downloads

References

1. Glynn, J. R., Kayuni, N., Floyd, S., Banda, E., Francis-Chizororo, M., Tanton, C., Molesworth, A., Hemmings, J., Crampin, A. C., & French, N. (2010). Age at menarche, schooling, and sexual debut in northern Malawi. Plos One, 5(12), e15334. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0015334 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Ahlberg, B. M., Jylkäs, E., & Krantz, I. (2001). Gendered construction of sexual risks: Implications for safer sex among young people in Kenya and Sweden. Reproductive Health Matters, 9(17), 26–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0968-8080(01)90005-9 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Ruto, S. J. (2009). Sexual abuse of school age children: Evidence from Kenya. 国際教育協力論集, 12(1), 177–192. https://hiroshima.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/2021471 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Children Act. (2022). https://new.kenyalaw.org/akn/ke/act/2022/29/eng@2022-07-29 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Situation of Adolescents in Kenya 2024 | UNICEF Kenya. (2024, July 31). https://www.unicef.org/kenya/reports/situation-adolescents-kenya-2024 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Lee, R. L. T., Yuen Loke, A., Hung, T. T. M., & Sobel, H. (2018). A systematic review on identifying risk factors associated with early sexual debut and coerced sex among adolescents and young people in communities. Journal of Clinical Nursing, 27(3–4), 478–501. https://doi.org/10.1111/jocn.13933 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Erkut, S., Grossman, J. M., Frye, A. A., Ceder, I., Charmaraman, L., & Tracy, A. J. (2013). Can Sex Education Delay Early Sexual Debut? The Journal of Early Adolescence, 33(4), 482–497. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272431612449386 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Chemhaka, G. B., & Simelane, M. S. (2024). Timing of sexual debut and associated sociodemographic and HIV risk factors among young people in Eswatini. Plos One, 19(6), e0303942. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0303942 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Michels, T. M., Kropp, R. Y., Eyre, S. L., & Halpern‐Felsher, B. L. (2005). Initiating Sexual Experiences: How Do Young Adolescents Make Decisions Regarding Early Sexual Activity? Journal of Research on Adolescence, 15(4), 583–607. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-7795.2005.00112.x [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Campus, D. (2018). Assessing factors influencing early sexual initiation among adolescents (13 to 19 years) in Ghana: A qualitative study. International J of Caring Sci, 1, 53–60. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Wilfred-Adongo-2/publication/337830813_Assessing_Factors_Influencing_Early_Sexual_Initiation_among_Adolescents_13_to_19_Years_in_Ghana_A_Qualitative_Study/links/5dedf65a4585159aa46e8b44/Assessing-Factors-Influencing-Early-Sexual-Initiation-among-Adolescents-13-to-19-Years-in-Ghana-A-Qualitative-Study.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Birnbaum, G. E., & Reis, H. T. (2019). Evolved to be connected: The dynamics of attachment and sex over the course of romantic relationships. Current Opinion in Psychology, 25, 11–15. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352250X18300010/?amp=1 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Cust, H. (2024). Economic Shocks and Risky Sexual Behaviours [PhD Thesis, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine]. https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4672603 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Munala, L., Yewhalawork, B., Okunna, N., & Kihuha, J. (2023). “Girls Are the Ones Who Save the Family”: Factors and Consequences of Engaging in Age-Disparate Transactional Sex Relationships. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 38(5–6), 4768–4789. https://doi.org/10.1177/08862605221119521 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Czechowski, K., Sylvestre, J., & Corsini-Munt, S. (2022). Survival sex: Sexual agency and consent in a state of deprivation? A scoping review. The Canadian Journal of Human Sexuality, 31(2), 293–308. https://doi.org/10.3138/cjhs.2022-0017 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Cho, H.-S., & Yang, Y. (2023). Relationship between alcohol consumption and risky sexual behaviors among adolescents and young adults: A meta-analysis. International Journal of Public Health, 68, 1605669. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10154531/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Hansen, A., & Laursen, B. S. (2024). Late sexual debut—A qualitative interview study. Sexuality, Gender & Policy, 7(2), 177–195. https://doi.org/10.1002/sgp2.12095 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Tafro, A., Koletić, G., Milas, G., & Štulhofer, A. (2024). The Role of Religiosity and Personal Faith in Young People’s Sexual Debut and Sexual Risk Taking: A Bayesian Approach. International Journal of Sexual Health, 36(1), 100–110. https://doi.org/10.1080/19317611.2024.2308822 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Ogutu, G. M., & Chege, S. M. (2023). Early Sexual Debut and the Associated Factors among School Going Adolescents in Selected Schools in Kenya. The East African Health Research Journal, 7(2), 219. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11364202/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Sing’oei, V., Owuoth, J. K., Otieno, J., Yates, A., Andagalu, B., Smith, H. J., Copeland, N. K., Polyak, C. S., Crowell, T. A., the RV393 Study Team, Adongo, R., Aguttu, R., Akala, H., Ake, J., Bondo, M., Broach, E., Busisa, C., Cowden, J., De Souza, M., … Tran, C. (2023). Early sexual debut is associated with drug use and decreased educational attainment among males and females in Kisumu County, Kenya. Reproductive Health, 20(1), 111. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-023-01639-3 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. Ondieki, D. K., Ochieng’Omia, D., Gichuhi, W., & Otieno, C. M. (2022). Economic Determinants of Sexual Debut among Secondary School Students: A Case of Rural Kenya. Research Developments in Arts and Social Studies, 4, 27–41. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Diana-Ondieki/publication/360966981_Economic_Determinants_of_Sexual_Debut_among_Secondary_School_Students_A_Case_of_Rural_Kenya/links/6297c841a3fe3e3df853c3e7/Economic-Determinants-of-Sexual-Debut-among-Secondary-School-Students-A-Case-of-Rural-Kenya.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Kiiru, S., Thiongo, M., & Gichangi, P. (2024). Correlates of early sex debut among adolescents and young women: A National cross-sectional study. Gates Open Research, 8, 33. https://gatesopenresearch.org/articles/8-33 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. Muhammad, T., Srivastava, S., Kumar, P., & Patel, S. K. (2021). What predicts the early sexual debut among unmarried adolescents (10–19 years)? Evidence from UDAYA survey, 2015–16. Plos One, 16(6), e0252940. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0252940 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. Asare, B. Y.-A., Zegeye, B., Ahinkorah, B. O., Ameyaw, E. K., Seidu, A.-A., & Yaya, S. (2023). Early Sexual Debut and Its Associated Factors Among Young Women Aged 15–24 in Mali: A Multilevel Analysis. Archives of Sexual Behavior, 52(6), 2491–2502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10508-023-02591-w [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. Asante, K. O., Nketiah-Amponsah, E., Andoh-Arthur, J., & Ampaw, S. (2022). The interactive effect of gender, residence, and socioeconomic status on early sexual debut among sexually active young adults in Ghana. Journal of Public Health, 30(2), 365–372. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-020-01285-0 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. Hosmer, D. W., Lemeshow, S., & May, S. (2008). Applied survival analysis. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, 60. https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1360011145593294208 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

26. Cleves, M. (2008). An introduction to survival analysis using Stata. Stata press. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=xttbn0a-QR8C&oi=fnd&pg=PR11&dq=Cleves,+M.,+Gould,+W.,+Gutierrez,+R.,+%26+Marchenko,+Y.+(2016).+An+introduction+to+survival+analysis+using+Stata+(3rd+ed.).+College+Station,+TX:+Stata+Press.&ots=a10OFl6Gaj&sig=xnEe-eVgDVhZUmFogP91Qzbc5AU [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

27. Montesinos López, O. A., Montesinos López, A., & Crossa, J. (2022). Overfitting, Model Tuning, and Evaluation of Prediction Performance. In O. A. Montesinos López, A. Montesinos López, & J. Crossa, Multivariate Statistical Machine Learning Methods for Genomic Prediction (pp. 109–139). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-89010-0_4 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

28. Aliferis, C., & Simon, G. (2024). Overfitting, Underfitting and General Model Overconfidence and Under-Performance Pitfalls and Best Practices in Machine Learning and AI. In G. J. Simon & C. Aliferis (Eds.), Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Health Care and Medical Sciences (pp. 477–524). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-39355-6_10 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

29. Kruschel, S., Hambauer, N., Weinzierl, S., Zilker, S., Kraus, M., & Zschech, P. (2025). Challenging the Performance-Interpretability Trade-Off: An Evaluation of Interpretable Machine Learning Models. Business & Information Systems Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12599-024-00922-2 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

30. Tang, W., He, H., & Tu, X. M. (2023). Applied categorical and count data analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.1201/9781003109815/applied-categorical-count-data-analysis-wan-tang-hua-xin-tu [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

31. Ng’Andu, N. H. (1997). AN EMPIRICAL COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL TESTS FOR ASSESSING THE PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS ASSUMPTION OF COX’S MODEL. Statistics in Medicine, 16(6), 611–626. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19970330)16:6%253C611::AID-SIM437%253E3.0.CO;2-T [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

32. Carroll, K. J. (2003). On the use and utility of the Weibull model in the analysis of survival data. Controlled Clinical Trials, 24(6), 682–701. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197245603000722 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

33. Adimora, D. E., & Onwu, A. O. (2019). Socio-demographic factors of early sexual debut and depression among adolescents. African Health Sciences, 19(3), 2634–2644. https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ahs/article/view/190880 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

34. Cavazos-Rehg, P. A., Spitznagel, E. L., Bucholz, K. K., Nurnberger, J., Edenberg, H. J., Kramer, J. R., Kuperman, S., Hesselbrock, V., & Bierut, L. J. (2010). Predictors of Sexual Debut at Age 16 or Younger. Archives of Sexual Behavior, 39(3), 664–673. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10508-008-9397-y [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

35. Clark, D. A., Donnellan, M. B., Durbin, C. E., Nuttall, A. K., Hicks, B. M., & Robins, R. W. (2020). Sex, drugs, and early emerging risk: Examining the association between sexual debut and substance use across adolescence. PloS One, 15(2), e0228432. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0228432 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

36. Piper, K. N., Lambert, D. N., & Fuller, T. J. (2022). The Impact of Religious Participation and Religious Upbringing on The Sexual Behavior of Emerging Adults in The Southern United States. Sexuality & Culture, 26(5), 1711–1731. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12119-022-09965-7 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

37. Tafro, A., Koletić, G., Milas, G., & Štulhofer, A. (2024). The Role of Religiosity and Personal Faith in Young People’s Sexual Debut and Sexual Risk Taking: A Bayesian Approach. International Journal of Sexual Health, 36(1), 100–110. https://doi.org/10.1080/19317611.2024.2308822 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

38. Peterson, A. J., Donze, M., Allen, E., & Bonell, C. (2019). Effects of Interventions Addressing School Environments or Educational Assets on Adolescent Sexual Health: Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 51(2), 91–107. https://doi.org/10.1363/psrh.12102 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

39. Debele, G. R., Tsegaye, D., Gemechu, T., & Siraj, S. Z. (2022). Influences of parental monitoring and school connectedness on age at first sexual debut among unmarried female youth in Bedele town, Ethiopia: A survival analysis of timing using accelerated failure time model. PLoS One, 17(7), e0271906. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0271906 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

40. Moore, A. M., Awusabo-Asare, K., Kumi-Kyereme, A., Madise, N., & John-Langba, J. (2007). Coerced first sex among adolescent girls in sub-Saharan Africa: Prevalence and context. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 11(3), 62–82. https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/EJC134436 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

41. Lee, R. L. T., Yuen Loke, A., Hung, T. T. M., & Sobel, H. (2018). A systematic review on identifying risk factors associated with early sexual debut and coerced sex among adolescents and young people in communities. Journal of Clinical Nursing, 27(3–4), 478–501. https://doi.org/10.1111/jocn.13933 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

42. Fisher, R. J., & Katz, J. E. (2000). Social-desirability bias and the validity of self-reported values. Psychology and Marketing, 17(2), 105–120. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1520-6793(200002)17:2%253C105::AID-MAR3%253E3.0.CO;2-9 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

43. Materu, J., Konje, E. T., Urassa, M., Marston, M., Boerma, T., & Todd, J. (2023). Comparison of survival analysis approaches to modelling age at first sex among youth in Kisesa Tanzania. Plos One, 18(9), e0289942. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0289942 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

Metrics

Views & Downloads

Similar Articles