Arabic Language Attrition and State Stability: Empirical Validation of the SPH-LENS Framework in the Arab World

Arabic’s gradual attrition has been theorised as a potential national security threat, but this claim has not previously been tested empirically. Building on our earlier conceptual work – the Socio-Political-Historical (SPH) framework and the SPH-LENS early warning system – the paper examines whether erosion in Arabic language vitality is associated with rising state fragility across the 22 Arab League states. Using a panel dataset covering roughly 2000–2025, the paper constructs a composite Arabic Attrition Index (AAI), operationalising SPH LENS indicators, and compare it to national stability measures such as the Fragile States Index (FSI). Fixed effects panel regressions, panel Granger causality tests, and robustness checks with economic, demographic, and institutional controls are employed to isolate the language factor. The paper finds that declines in Arabic’s societal role – particularly in education, science, and media – significantly predict subsequent increases in state fragility, even after accounting for confounders. These results provide the first quantitative evidence that language attrition and instability are linked, reframing Arabic language policy as a strategic rather than purely cultural concern. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for Arab governments and the Arab League and outlines avenues for further research on language vitality as an early warning indicator of national cohesion and security.

Arabic, Arab League, Attrition Index, language Security

1. Eberhard, David M., Gary F. Simons, and Charles D. Fennig, eds. 2021. Ethnologue: Languages of the World. 24th ed. Dallas, TX: SIL International. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Fishman, Joshua A. 1991. Reversing Language Shift: Theoretical and Empirical Foundations of Assistance to Threatened Languages. Clevedon: Multilingual Matters. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Bourdieu, Pierre. 1991. Language and Symbolic Power. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Gramsci, Antonio. 1971. Selections from the Prison Notebooks. Edited and translated by Quintin Hoare and Geoffrey Nowell Smith. New York: International Publishers. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Stanley Dubinsky, Harvey Starr, Weaponizing Language: Linguistic Vectors of Ethnic Oppression, Global Studies Quarterly, Volume 2, Issue 2, April 2022, ksab051, https://doi.org/10.1093/isagsq/ksab051 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Suleiman, Yasir. 2003. Arabic Language and National Identity: A Study in Ideology. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. SULEIMAN, YASIR. The Arabic Language and National Identity: A Study in Ideology. Edinburgh University Press, 2003. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3366/j.ctvxcrx0x. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Mustafa Taha, “Arabizi: Is Code-Switching a Threat to the Arabic Language,” in The Asian Conference on Arts & Humanities 2015: Official Conference Proceedings (Osaka: The International Academic Forum (IAFOR), 2015). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. UNESCO Ad Hoc Expert Group on Endangered Languages. 2003. Language Vitality and Endangerment. Document submitted to the International Expert Meeting on UNESCO Programme Safeguarding of Endangered Languages, Paris, 10–12 March 2003. Paris: UNESCO. https://ich.unesco.org/doc/src/00120-EN.pdf. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Anderson, Benedict. 1983. Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism. London: Verso. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Gellner, Ernest. 1983. Nations and Nationalism. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Suleiman, Yasir. 2003. Arabic Language and National Identity: A Study in Ideology. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Greenberg, Robert D. 2011. “Language, Identity, and Balkan Politics: Struggle for Identity in the Former Yugoslavia.” Occasional Paper No. 216. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Marshall, Monty G., and Gabrielle Elzinga Marshall. 2017. Global Report 2017: Conflict, Governance and State Fragility. Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75–90. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Marson, Margherita, Mario Migheli, and Daniele Saccone. 2021. “New Evidence on the Link between Ethnic Fractionalization and Economic Freedom.” Economics of Governance 22 (3): 257–292. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Shadi, Mohamed, and Mostafa Ahmed. 2025. “Arabs without Arabic: A Spatio‑Temporal Model of Language Attrition and Its Implications for National Security.” International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science 9 (10): 7167–7180. https://doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.910000584 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. UNESCO. 2010. Atlas of the World’s Languages in Danger. 3rd ed. Edited by Christopher Moseley. Paris: UNESCO Publishing. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Fishman, Joshua A. 1991. Reversing Language Shift: Theoretical and Empirical Foundations of Assistance to Threatened Languages. Clevedon: Multilingual Matters. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. Shadi, Mohamed, and Mostafa Ahmed. 2025. “Arabs without Arabic: A Spatio‑Temporal Model of Language Attrition and Its Implications for National Security.” International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science 9 (10): 7167–7180. https://doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2025.910000584 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Marshall, Monty G., and Gabrielle Elzinga Marshall. 2017. Global Report 2017: Conflict, Governance and State Fragility. Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Life and Livelihood of Women in the Sundarbans: A Survey
• Examine the Reasons Behind the Academic Low Performance of Female Pupils at Elengaz Mixed Primary School in Khartoum State, Sudan.
• Problems of Teaching English Conversation by Using Communicative Approach among Secondary School Teachers in Kirkuk Province