Dumping, Cost Externalization, and Agro-Export Traceability in Mexico "A Technical-Legal Approach to the US Preliminary Determination on Winter Strawberries"

The affirmative preliminary determination issued on August 18, 2026, by the United States Department of Commerce regarding fresh winter strawberries from Mexico constitutes a strategic case study for analyzing the technical and legal limits of antidumping investigations applied to agricultural exports. Commerce established preliminary margins of 5.28% for Driscoll's Operaciones S.A. de C.V., 3.37% for Mainland Farms S.A. de C.V., and 4.83% for all other producers and exporters. The present study proposes an interdisciplinary approach integrating international commercial law, agricultural economics, environmental sciences, and territorial analysis. As a methodological axis, it incorporates a multidimensional analysis of regional berry production scenarios in Huiramba, Michoacán, particularly examining the indicators of Hydric Coefficient (QH), Productive Potential (PP), and Environmental Impact (IA), complemented by recent research on forest transformation and water availability in Michoacán. The hypothesis posits that an antidumping determination may present technical-legal vulnerabilities when the comparison between normal value and export price fails to adequately distinguish the productive, seasonal, environmental, and economic conditions that explain price formation, or when the determination of injury and causality does not separate the effects of the investigated imports from other factors. A rigorous distinction is made between dumping, subsidy, competitive advantage, and cost externalization, avoiding the conflation of environmental externalities into an antidumping category. A technical-commercial traceability model is proposed, articulating the plot, resources, production, costs, commercialization, export, antidumping comparison, injury, and causality. Results demonstrate that the QH–PP–IA model constitutes a useful scientific tool for identifying structural variables capable of affecting the competitiveness and sustainability of the production of these so-called soft fruits or berries. It is concluded that the Mexican defense must evolve toward a multilevel evidentiary model capable of integrating productive, environmental, economic, and legal evidence, sustainable simultaneously before US authorities, the USMCA mechanisms, and the WTO multilateral system.

dumping; agro-exports; berries; environmental externalities; legal traceability.

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