Explaining Continuity and Change in U.S.–India Relations: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis of the Trump and Biden Administrations

The U.S.–India strategic partnership has emerged as one of the most significant bilateral relationships in the evolving Indo-Pacific security architecture. Despite the transition from the Trump administration’s “America First” foreign policy to the Biden administration’s emphasis on alliances, multilateralism, and democratic values, the trajectory of U.S.–India relations has exhibited substantial continuity alongside important policy adjustments. This article employs the theoretical framework of Neoclassical Realism to explain how systemic pressures and domestic-level variables collectively shaped the evolution of bilateral relations across the two administrations. It argues that the intensifying strategic competition with China, the growing geopolitical significance of the Indo-Pacific, and shared concerns over regional security created enduring structural incentives for sustaining and deepening U.S.–India cooperation. At the same time, leadership perceptions, domestic political priorities, institutional preferences, and diplomatic styles influenced the nature and scope of engagement in areas such as defence cooperation, critical and emerging technologies, economic security, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), climate cooperation, and global governance. Through a comparative qualitative analysis of official policy documents, strategic initiatives, bilateral agreements, speeches, and secondary literature, the study demonstrates that while tactical approaches differed under Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the strategic foundations of the partnership remained remarkably resilient. The article contends that continuity has outweighed change because the bilateral relationship is increasingly driven by long-term structural imperatives rather than short-term political leadership. By integrating systemic and domestic variables within a Neoclassical Realist framework, the study contributes to the literature on alliance politics, strategic partnerships, and Indo-Pacific geopolitics, offering a comprehensive explanation of the resilience and future trajectory of U.S.–India relations amid an increasingly competitive international order.

U.S.–India relations, Neoclassical Realism, Trump administration, Biden administration, Indo-Pacific strategy, great power competition, strategic partnership, China, Quad, defence cooperation, strategic autonomy, and foreign policy analysis

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