Exploring the Nexus Between Macroeconomic Indicators, Public Debt and Human Development in Nigeria (1986-2025)

The motivation of this paper may be due to the surge in unsustainable debt and macroeconomic environment in Nigeria, the paper therefore examined the nexus between macroeconomic indicators, public debt and human development in Nigeria from the period of 1986 to 2025. The main objective of this paper was to examine the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, public debt on human development in Nigeria. The data for this research was sourced from the Central Bank (CBN) Statistical bulletin from 1986 to 2025. The paper employed Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) which is a long run estimation technique, in achieving a predictable model, the paper employed Unit Root and Cointegration Test to avoid spurious regression. The result from the estimation shows that external debt (EXD), inflation rate (IFL) was statically significant in explaining the variation Human Development Index in Nigeria (HDI) in Nigeria, unemployment rate (UNEM) was positive but not significant in explaining a change in HDI. Based on the aforesaid, the paper recommend that Nigerian government should promote fiscal discipline, foster fiscal and monetary policy harmony and above sustain macroeconomic reforms to creates jobs.

Human Development Index, External Debt, Inflation Rate, Unemployment, DOLS

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