Factors Affecting the Rupiah Exchange Rate Against the US Dollar (The Case of the Rupiah Exchange Rate 2010-2025)

Over the past 15 years, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar has consistently weakened. This weakening has had a direct impact on the swelling value of foreign debt. The increase in foreign debt has reduced the proportion of state revenue that should be used to finance development. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the factors causing the consistent weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar. This study was conducted using descriptive analysis, aiming to identify the key factors causing the weakening of the rupiah against the US dollar. Three main variables are predicted to cause the weakening of the rupiah: the current account balance, foreign debt, and the debt service ratio (DSR). This study has shown that the current account deficit that occurred between 2010 and 2025 has weakened the rupiah and increased the DSR proportion. This impacts Indonesia's macroeconomic stability. A large portion of state revenue is used to repay foreign debt, reducing the proportion of state revenue allocated for development. This study recommends that the government reduce exports of low-value raw materials, export high-value goods, and strengthen the tourism services sector.

current account, foreign debt, DSR, rupiah exchange rate

1. Adhista, M. (2022). Analisis Ekspor, Impor, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar (M2) terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah [Analysis of Exports, Imports, and Money Supply (M2) against the Rupiah Exchange Rate]. Growth: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Pembangunan, 1(2), 73–92. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Altayligil; Yasin B; & Murat C. (2020). Macroeconomic, Institutional and Financial Determinants of Current Account Balances: A Panel Data Assessment. Journal of Economic Structures 9: 8–12 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Amjad, A. (2022). Foreign Debt, Financial Stability, Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries. MPRA Paper No. 116099. Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/116099/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Ariusni. (2020). Analysis of Economic Growth, Exports and Savings to Debt in Indonesia. Proceedings of the 5th Padang International Conference on Economics Education, Economics, Business and Management, Accounting and Entrepreneurship (PICEEBA-5 2020). Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research, volume 152, 239-249 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Bank Indonesia. (2025). Statistik Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia (SULNI) [Indonesian Foreign Debt Statistics]. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Bank Indonesia. (2025). Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI): Kurs Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS [Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics: Rupiah Exchange Rate against the US Dollar]. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Dzakiyah, Z., Puspitaningtyas, Z., & Puspita, Y. (2018). Pengaruh Jumlah Nilai Ekspor dan Tingkat Inflasi terhadap Kurs Rupiah Tahun 2009–2016 [The Influence of Export Value and Inflation Rate on the Rupiah Exchange Rate in 2009–2016]. Jurnal Perilaku dan Strategi Bisnis, 6(2), 103–110. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Eita, J. H; Victor M.; & Erwin N. (2019). Macroeconomic Variables and Current Account Balance in an Open Economy: Evidence from Namibia. Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics 43: 55–70 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Endrico, D.; Nasution, M.L.I.; and Anggraini, T. (2025). The Effect of Debt Service Ratio (DSR) on Home Ownership Financing Approval. Jurisprudensi Jurnal Ilmu Syariah Perundang-Undangan Ekonomi Islam, 17 (2), 90-107 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Hakim, Y. R., & Aji, T. S. (2025). Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate of the Indonesian Rupiah Against the United States Dollar: January 2013–December 2023. Formosa Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 4(5), 2043–2062. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. International Monetary Fund. (2013). External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users. Washington, DC: IMF. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Mankiw, N. G. (2021). Principles of macroeconomics (9th ed.). Boston: Cengage Learning [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Mugo, P. M.; Wafula M.; & Kennedy O. (2021). The Effects of Current Account Deficit on Economic Growth: Evidence from Kenya. Journal of Economics and Public Finance 7: 9–16. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Musisinyani, B.; Thabani N.; & Munyaradzi N. (2017). The Impact of Current Account Deficits on Economic Growth in Zimbabwe. International Journal for Innovative Research in Multidisciplinary Field 1: 1–16 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Olakulehin, T.H.; Olaniyi, O.; Adekanmbi, A.; & Alabi, M. (2024). Does Current Account Balance Affect Economic Growth? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. African Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7 (4), 219-235. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Pardasia, S. & Syafri. (2024). Analisis factor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar [Factor analysis affecting exchange rate]. Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 4 (1), 187-196 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Rangkuty, D.M. and Hidayat, M. (2021). Does Foreign Debt have an Impact on Indonesia's Foreign Exchange Reserves? Ekuilibrium: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi, 16 (1), 85-93 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Ritonga, R.R.; Juliansyah, H.; Murtala; & Trisniarti, N. (2025). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kurs rupiah [Factors affecting rupiah exchange rate]. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian UNIMAL, 8 (2), 51-63. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Setiawan, A.; Gunanto, D.; Hamka; and Saputra, M.Y. (2022). The impact of foreign debt on implementation of Indonesia’s foreign policy 2014-2022. Jurnal Aranjang, 5 (2), 119-135 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. Trading Economics. Indonesia External Debt. https://id.tradingeconomics.com/indonesia/external-debt [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Impact of Foreign Direct Investment in India
• Issues Involved in Digitalisation Special Reference to Indian Tourism Growth
• Relationship Marketing and Customer Loyalty in the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Industry in Nairobi County
• Financial Literacy or Financial Inclusion? Which is Which, What is What—To Achieve Uganda’s 10-Fold Economic Growth By 2040
• Harnessing Natural Gas for Economic Transformation: Overcoming the Regulatory and Infrastructural Bottlenecks in Nigeria