Impact of Digital Technology Adoption on Economic Growth Amidst Inflationary Pressures in Nigeria (1999–2025)

This study investigates the impact of digital technology adoption on economic growth amidst inflationary pressures in Nigeria using annual time-series data from 1999 to 2025. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing framework, digital adoption is proxied via mobile subscriptions, internet penetration, electronic payment volumes, and the ICT sector's GDP contribution, with inflation integrated as an interacting macroeconomic variable. The ARDL Bounds test confirms a valid long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables (F-statistic = 5.88). In the long run, ICT sector contribution (β = 0.419, p < 0.01) and internet penetration (β = 0.053, p) < 0.05) exert positive and statistically significant impacts on economic growth. Standalone inflation shows an insignificant negative effect. Crucially, the interaction term between electronic payments and inflation is positive but statistically insignificant, indicating that fintech infrastructure acts as a structural cushion against price shocks. Furthermore, the Error Correction Term is appropriately negative (-0.895, p < 0.01), showing that 89.5% of short-run imbalances adjust annually. The study concludes that digital adoption serves as a macroeconomic stabilizer. It recommends expanding broadband infrastructure, reducing central bank merchant levies, and eliminating duplicative digital taxes during inflationary regimes.

Digital technology adoption; Economic growth; Inflationary shocks; FinTech; ARDL cointegration; Nigeria.

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