Socio-Spatial Stratification of Climate Resilience: An Empirical Assessment of Household Vulnerability across Density Typologies in Ibadan Metropolis

Urban climate adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa is increasingly defined by municipal shortfalls and household self-insulation. This study evaluates the structural determinants of household climate resilience across stratified residential density clusters within five core Local Government Areas of Ibadan Metropolis, Nigeria. Utilizing a multi-stage stratified systematic sampling framework, empirical data were captured from 800 household heads. A multi-vector Climate Resilience Index (CRI) was measured across four structural pillars: Structural Adaptations, Cognitive Preparedness, Communal Adaptations, and Integrated Socio-Economics. K-Means clustering adjusted the sample into three socio-spatial vulnerability profiles: High-Asset Self-Resilience ( 65, CRI = 0.77); Asset-Constrained Coping (678,CRI = 0.26); and Chronic Structural Incapability ( 57, CRI = 0.19). Multiple regression (R2 = 0.590, F = 285.83, p < 0.001) shows that Land Tenure Security is the dominant positive predictor of resilience (β = 0.341, p < 0.001), followed by Monthly Income (β = 0.265, p < 0.001) and Structural Housing Quality (β = 0.218, p < 0.001). Educational Attainment has the weakest impact (β = 0.122, p < 0.001). Central to this finding is the “Traditional Land Rights Trap” in the historic core, where strong traditional tenure security (TEN = 0.85) translates into locked-in equity that cannot be used due to an absolute lack of financial liquidity (INC = 0.15). The study reveals that adaptive capacity is fundamentally bounded by capital liquidity and spatial geometry. These findings demonstrate that household adaptive capacity is fundamentally bounded by the intersection of capital liquidity and spatial geometry. The study advocates for a radical shift from individualized, privatized insulation models towards structurally funded, community-led drainage and municipal infrastructure intervention strategies.
Keywords: Climate Resilience Index, Urban Morphology, Socio-Spatial Stratification, Ibadan Metropolis, Vulnerability Profiling

Built Environment

1. Abati, O. (2025). "Man must chop!": Agency of potholes, informal road menders and socioeconomic survival on a sub-urban road in Nigeria. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2427.13287 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Adelekan, I. et al. (2015). Urban settlements' vulnerability to flood risks in African cities: A conceptual framework. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Adelekan, I. O. (2012). Vulnerability to wind hazards in the traditional city of Ibadan, Nigeria. Environment and Urbanization, 24(2), 597–617. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247812454247 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Adger, W. N. (2003). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography, 79(4), 387–404. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.2003.tb00220.x [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Agbola, T. & Agunbiade, E.M. (2009). Urbanization, slum development and security of tenure: The challenges of meeting Millennium Development Goal 7 in Metropolitan Lagos, Nigeria. In Urban Population-Environment Dynamics in the Developing World. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Aliu, I.R., Akoteyon, I.S. & Soladoye, O. (2025). Socio-economic determinants of housing environmental condition in the core area of a traditional city, south-western Nigeria. Town Planning Review, 96(1). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Amole, D. ,Davi Korboe & Graham Tipple (1991).Inner-city core housing conditions, Ibadan. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Amao, F. L. and Ogunlade, B. (2015) Effect of urban informal settlements and outdoor advertisement on the quality of built environment and urban upgrading in Nigeria. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(8): 332-339. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Andreasen, M. H., Agergaard, J., Allotey, A. N. M., Møller-Jensen, L., & Oteng-Ababio, M. (2023). Built-in flood risk: The intertwinement of flood risk and unregulated urban expansion in African cities. Urban Forum, 34(3), 385–411. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12132-022-09478-4 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Berkes, F., & Folke, C. (1998). Linking social and ecological systems: Management practices and social mechanisms for building resilience. Cambridge University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Cobbinah, P. B., Erdiaw-Kwasie, M. O., & Amoateng, P. (2015). Africa's urbanisation: Implications for sustainable development. Cities, 47, 62–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2015.03.013 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Cohen, B. (2006). Urbanization in developing countries: Current trends, future projections, and key challenges for sustainability. Technology in Society, 28(1–2). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Coker, A.O., Awokola, O.S., Olomolaiye, P.O. & Booth, C.A. (2007). Challenges of urban housing quality and its associations with neighbourhood environments. Environmental Health Insights. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. De Soto, H. (2000). The mystery of capital: Why capitalism triumphs in the West and fails everywhere else. Basic Books. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Department for International Development (DFID). (1999). Sustainable livelihoods guidance sheets. London: DFID. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Fateye, T. B., Odunfa, V. O., Ibisola, A. S., & Ibuoye, A. A. (2021). Basic residential neighborhood infrastructure financing in Nigeria urban cities: Community development associations (CDAs)-based approach. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 5(1), 1–21. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v5i1.1242 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Ibem, E.O. (2011). Challenges of public housing production in Nigeria. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Landman, K. (2004). Gated communities in South Africa: The challenge for spatial planning and land use management. Town Planning Review, 75(2), 151–172. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. Li, X., Stringer, L. C., & Dallimer, M. (2022). The impacts of urbanisation and climate change on the urban thermal environment in Africa. Climate, 10(11), 164. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10110164 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Marey, A., Zou, J., Goubran, S., Wang, L. L., & Gaur, A. (2025). Urban morphology impacts on urban microclimate using artificial intelligence – a review. City and Environment Interactions, 28, 100221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100221 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. Marey, A., Zou, J., Goubran, S., Wang, L. L., & Gaur, A. (2025). Urban morphology impacts on urban microclimate using artificial intelligence – a review. City and Environment Interactions, 28, 100221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cacint.2025.100221 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. Mobeen, M., Kabir, K. H., Schneider, U. A., Ahmed, T., & Scheffran, J. (2023). Sustainable livelihood capital and climate change adaptation in Pakistan's agriculture: Structural equation modeling analysis in the VIABLE framework. Heliyon, 9(10), e20818. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20818 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. Moser, C. O. N. (1998). The asset vulnerability framework: Reassessing urban poverty reduction strategies. World Development, 26(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(97)10015-8 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. Nolte, K. (2023). Effects of land titling on household tenure security and investments: Evidence from Nicaragua. Land Use Policy. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

26. Nwokoma, N. I., & Iwegbu, O. (2025). How effective are informal user fees in enhancing community development in the southwestern region of Nigeria? A SEM approach. [Journal of Sage pub.Com/https://doi.org/10.1177/23210222251347435 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

27. Odemerho, F. O. (2015). Building climate change resilience through bottom-up adaptation to flood risk in Warri, Nigeria. Environment and Urbanization, 27(1), 139–160. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

28. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247814558194 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

29. Ola, A. (2022). Climate change effects and livelihood-adaptation strategies by the urban poor in Ibadan, Nigeria. Town and Regional Planning, 81, 24–38. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

30. Ostrom, E. (2009). A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems. Science, 325(5939), 419–422. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

31. Salami, R. O., von Meding, J. K., & Giggins, H. (2017). Vulnerability of human settlements to flood risk in the core area of Ibadan metropolis, Nigeria. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 9(1), a371. https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v9i1.371 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

32. Schubert, A., von Streit, A., & Garschagen, M. (2025). Unravelling the capacity–action gap in flood risk adaptation. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 25, 1621–1653. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

33. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

34. Soja, E. W. (2010). Seeking spatial justice. University of Minnesota Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

35. Taiwo, O. J. (2022). Modelling the spatiotemporal patterns of urban sprawl in Ibadan metropolis between 1984 and 2013 in Nigeria. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 8, 121–140. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-021-01095-7 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

36. Tyler, S., & Moench, M. (2012). A framework for urban climate resilience. Climate and Development, 4(4), 311–326. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2012.745389 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

37. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2006). Land rights for African development: From knowledge to action. UNDP. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

38. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2006). Land rights for African development: From knowledge to action. UNDP.A conceptual framework.. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

39. van Gelder, J.-L. (2009). Legal tenure security, perceived tenure security and housing improvement in Buenos Aires: An attempt towards integration. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 33(1), 126–146. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

40. van Gelder, J.-L., & Luciano, E. C. (2015). Tenure security as a predictor of housing investment in low-income settlements: Testing a tripartite model. Environment and Planning A, 47(2). https://doi.org/10.1068/a130151p [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

41. Visagie, J. & Turok, I. (2020). Getting urban density to work in informal settlements in Africa. Environment and Urbanization, 32(2). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Assessment of the Role of Artificial Intelligence in Repositioning TVET for Economic Development in Nigeria
• Teachers’ Use of Assure Model Instructional Design on Learners’ Problem Solving Efficacy in Secondary Schools in Bungoma County, Kenya
• “E-Booksan Ang Kaalaman”: Development, Validation, and Utilization of Electronic Book in Academic Performance of Grade 9 Students in Social Studies
• Analyzing EFL University Students’ Academic Speaking Skills Through Self-Recorded Video Presentation
• Major Findings of The Study on Total Quality Management in Teachers’ Education Institutions (TEIs) In Assam – An Evaluative Study