The Corporate–Individual ROI Gap: Why Returning Expatriates Leave Despite Successful Assignments

International assignments represent expensive and time-consuming endeavours for multinational enterprises (MNEs). However, many repatriated expatriates (REs) depart from the organisation within one to two years after returning, even when the assignment was deemed successful by typical standards. This apparent paradox underpins this conceptual paper, which suggests that expatriate return on investment (ROI) comprises two separate and often diverging accounts: a corporate ROI, calculated based on cost recovery, knowledge transfer, and strategic capability development; and an individual ROI, assessed by the returnee in terms of career capital, status, and psychological contract fulfilment. Building on psychological contract theory (Rousseau, 1989, 1995) alongside career capital and boundaryless career theory (DeFillippi & Arthur, 1994; Dickmann & Harris, 2005), the paper integrates existing research on expatriate ROI (McNulty & Tharenou, 2004; McNulty et al., 2013), repatriate turnover (Kraimer et al., 2012; Stroh et al., 1998), and repatriate knowledge transfer (Lazarova & Tarique, 2005). It introduces the Dual-Ledger ROI Divergence Model, which explains post-assignment attrition as a consequence of the increasing divergence between these ledgers, rather than of either ledger in isolation. The analysis then focuses on Nigeria, where the "Japa–Japada" migration cycle, a significant skilled-labour drain, and poorly institutionalised repatriation practices make the ROI gap for both companies and individuals particularly critical for organisational competitiveness and national progress. The paper's novelty lies in reframing repatriate turnover as a relational-accounting problem rather than a readjustment or satisfaction problem, and in situating this reframing within an emerging-economy setting that the extant literature has largely overlooked. The paper closes with a theory-informed research agenda and practical recommendations for Nigerian and multinational employers seeking to narrow the gap and retain returnee talent.

expatriate return on investment, repatriation, psychological contract, career capital, employee turnover, Nigeria

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