The Double Burden of Climate Variability and Conflict: Assessing Smallholder Food Security and Resilience Strategies in Mubi North, Nigeria.

This study examines the effects of climate change and armed banditry on household food security, while accounting for the role of livelihood characteristics and coping responses. Using primary data from a 2025 field survey, a Food Security Index was constructed through Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was applied to assess causal relationships, and descriptive analysis was used to document household coping strategies. The PCA results indicate that the first principal component explains 56.8% of the total variation in food security indicators, with a cumulative explained variance of 71.1%, suggesting that meal frequency, dietary diversity, perceived food sufficiency, food expenditure share, and months of food shortage are robust measures of household food security. SEM results reveal that climate change and banditry have significant and negative effects on food security, while climate change also significantly increases the incidence of banditry. In contrast, farm size and off-farm income positively and significantly enhance household food security. The interaction effect between climate change and banditry further exacerbates food insecurity, highlighting their reinforcing impact. The model demonstrates an acceptable fit, confirming the reliability of the estimated relationships. Descriptive findings show that households respond to food insecurity through multiple coping strategies, including crop diversification, reduced meal frequency, engagement in off-farm employment, sale of livestock assets, participation in community savings groups, and temporary migration. Overall, the findings underscore the compounded threat posed by climate change and insecurity to food security, while emphasizing the importance of livelihood diversification and income-enhancing strategies in building household resilience. The study provides evidence-based insights to inform integrated policies targeting climate adaptation, rural security, and sustainable livelihood support.

Climate Variability, Conflict

1. Abanigbe, S., Ngidi, M., Ojo, T., Oyedeji-Amusa, M., Orowole, P., Yusuf-Oshoala, M., Adebayo, B., & Thobani, C. (2024). Adoption of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Household Food Security of Smallholder Poultry Farmers in Lagos and Ogun States, Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Extension. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Adamawa State Government. (2024, June 7). Adamawa State Government partners with Federal University of Agriculture Mubi to boost food security. Retrieved from https://adamawastate.gov.ng/adamawa-state-government-partners-with-federal-university-of-agriculture-mubi-to-boost-food-security/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Adekunle, A. O., Babatunde, R. O., Akanbi, S.-O., Ayeni, M. D., & Obalola, O. T. (2025). Assessment of the Effects of Climate-related Shocks on Farming Households’ Food Security in Niger State, Nigeria. Yuzuncu University Journal of Agricultural Sciences. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Adeoluwa, O. O., & Kehinde, O. B. (2011). Genetic variability studies in West African okra (Abelmoschus caillei). Agriculture and Biology Journal of North America, 2(10), 1326–1335. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Adetuyi, F. O., & Dada, I. B. O. (2014). Nutritional, phytoconstituent and antioxidant potential of mucilage extract of okra (Abelmoschus esculentus), water leaf (Talinum triangulare) and Jew’s mallow (Corchorus olitorius). International Food Research Journal, 21(6), 2345. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Agbedo, C. U. (2024). Banditry menace and looming famine in Nigeria. USAfricaOnline. Retrieved from https://usafricaonline.com/2024/05/02/banditry-menace-and-looming-famine-in-nigeria-by-chris-uchenna-agbedo/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Amic, D., Davidovic, A. D., Besto, D., & Trinajstic, N. (2003). Structure–radical scavenging activity relationship of flavonoids. Croatica Chemica Acta, 76(1), 55–61. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Akintola, I., & Nwogbo, A. N. (n.d.). An assessment of the effect of banditry on food security in Zamfara State, Nigeria. AUN International Conference. Retrieved from https://journals.aun.edu.ng/index.php/files/article/view/42 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Associated Press. (2025, May 13). Nigeria has a food security problem as water for crops is harder to find. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/article/0985473d47de9b752cd4b07f6df99c22 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Ayanlade, A., Radeny, M., & Morton, J. F. (2018). Comparing smallholder farmers’ perception of climate change with meteorological data: A case study from southwestern Nigeria. Weather and Climate Extremes, 19, 64–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.01.001 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Bello, O. B., & Aminu, D. (2017). Genetic relationships among okra (Abelmoschus esculentus (L.) Moench) cultivars in Nigeria. Acta Agriculturae Slovenica, 109(2), 251–260. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT). (2020). Statistical database of the Food & Agriculture Organization of the UN. FAO, Rome, Italy. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. FAO. (2023). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2021). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. FAO. https://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/2021/en/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Garandi, D. I. (2024). Food Security: An Analysis of Maize Production Pattern Before and After the Boko-Haram Period in Mubi North LGA, Adamawa State, Nigeria. British Journal of Contemporary Education, 10(12), 286–299. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Garandi, D. I., Bashir, A., & Dasin, M. S. (2025). Harnessing indigenous farming knowledge to enhance food security and land conservation in Mubi North LGA, Adamawa State, Nigeria. FUDMA Journal of Sciences, 9(1). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Gul, M. Z., Bhakshu, L. M., Ahmad, F., Kondapi, A. K., Qureshi, I. A., & Ghazi, I. A. (2011). Evaluation of Abelmoschus moschatus extracts for antioxidant and antimicrobial activities. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine, 11(1), 1–12. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Ikenga, U. V. (2025). Economic Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security: A Comparative Study of Smallholder Farmers in Nigeria and Ghana. Asian Journal of Research and Review in Agriculture. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. Israel, G. D. (2003). Determining sample size. University of Florida IFAS Extension. https://www.tarleton.edu/academicassessment/documents/Samplesize.pdf [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Moniruzzaman, M., Uddin, M. Z., & Chouhura, A. K. (2007). Response of okra seed crop to sowing time and plant spacing. Journal of Agricultural Research, 32(3), 393–402. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. Muoneke, C. O., & Mbah, E. U. (2007). Productivity of cassava/okra intercropping system. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 2(5), 223–231. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. Nnanguma, A. K., Mubi, A. M., & Tukur, A. L. (2025). Analysis of soil erosion factors in Mubi North and South LGAs, Adamawa State, Nigeria. GPH-International Journal of Agriculture and Research, 8(01), 16–36. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. Ogbinyi, O. J., Uche, E., & Ebi, N. O. (2024). Consequences of Herders-Farmers Conflict on Food Security in Nigeria (2016–2022): A Review. Asian Research Journal of Arts & Social Sciences. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. Omotayo, A. O., Olagunju, K. O., & Ogunniyi, A. I. (2025). Climate-smart agricultural practices and food-nutrition security outcomes. Agriculture & Food Security. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

26. Premium Researchers. (n.d.). Implication of herdsmen banditry activities on food scarcity in Nigeria. Retrieved from https://www.premiumresearchers.com [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

27. Kumar, S., & Reddy, M. T. (2016). Combining ability of inbred lines in okra. Jordan Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 12(2), 479–497. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

28. Yamane, T. (1967). Statistics: An Introductory Analysis (2nd ed.). New York: Harper and Row. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Breeding for a Greener Future: Selective Breeding and Crossbreeding Approaches to Minimize Methane Emissions in Ruminant Livestock
• Determinants of Adoption of Post-Harvest Losses Prevention Techniques among Banana/Plantain Marketers in Lagos State, Nigeria
• Enhancing Rice Yield Prediction Using UAV-Based Multispectral Imaging and Machine Learning Algorithms
• Seed-Borne Fungi of Groundnuts (Arachis Hypogaea) and Their Management with Ginger (Zingiber Officinale) Extract In Makurdi, Nigeria
• The Influence of Landforms and Slope on Agricultural Cropping Patterns in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar District