The Effect of Agricultural Output on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The study examines the effect of agricultural output on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2024. Macroeconomic data on Economic growth rate, Crop Production, Fishing Production, Livestock Production were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical Bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics. The methodology adopted in the study is the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model since the variables were not all stationary at same order of integration. The regression analysis shows that crop production, fishing production and livestock production have different impact on Economic Growth. The findings revealed that Crop Production had positive and statistically significant long-run relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. Fishing Production had, though negative statistically significant long – run relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. Livestock Production had positive and statistically significant long-run relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. Based in the findings from this study, the following are the recommendations, there should be adequate incentives to the willing farmers and investors through government intervention in form of funding and disease control enable them to create value-added activities that could yield high crop production. There should be plans to establish fish processing centres across the major production areas to avert high production wastes experienced by producers due to lack of processing of fishing produce. The government through the ministry of agriculture should prioritize this recommendation as fishing production has potential to contribute significantly to both domestic and foreign exchange earnings of economy. There should be gracing reserves for livestock production across the country. Similarly, research and development on tropical diseases that affect livestock animals should be a continuum to be able to mitigate major shocks on production output since livestock production has significant positive impact on the Nigerian economy.

Agricultural Output, Economic Growth, ARDL

1. Aderemi, O., (2020). Despite the N592.9 billion Budget on Agriculture in the last five years- there is less to show for it. Dataphyte. Https://www.dataphyte.com/latest-reports/agriculture. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

2. Ahungwa, G., Haruna, U., & Abdsalam, Y.R. (2012), Trend analysis of the contribution of agriculture to gross domestic product (1960-2012). Journal of Agricultural and Veterinary Science, 7(1), 50-55. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

3. Amino, F.B and Anono. M (2012), Budget deficit and inflation in Nigeria: A CausalRelationship, Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 2 (1),1-8 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

4. Ammani, A.A. (2012). An investigation into the relationship between agricultural production and formal credit supply in Nigeria. International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry 2(1), 46-52. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

5. Apeh, M. and Adseshina, A. (2017). Analysis of the relationship between agricultural output and economic growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 2 (1),46-52. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

6. Alabi, R.A. (2014). Impact of agricultural foreign aid on agricultural growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A dynamic specification. AGRODEP Working Paper 0006. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

7. Aina, G.O. & Omojola, J. T. (2015). Assessment of the effect of government expenditure on agricultural output in Nigeria. International Journal of Innovative Agriculture & Biology Research, 5(4),1-7 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

8. Akintunde, W.A.(2013). An analysis of federal government expenditure and monetary policy on agricultural output in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences 1(6),310-317. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

9. Adetiloye, A.K. (2012). Agricultural financing in Nigeria: An assessment of the agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund (ACGSF) for food security in Nigeria (1978-2006). Journal Economics 3(1),39-48. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

10. Anderson, Kym, editor. (2009). Distortions to Agricultural Incentives. A Global Perspective, 1955 – 2007. New York and Washington D.C.: Palgrave Macmillan and World Bank. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

11. Aigbedion and Iyayi (2001). Diversifying Nigeria’s petroleum industry. International Journal of physical sciences 2 (10), 263-270 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

12. Anyanwu J.C. (1999). Analysis of agricultural production in Nigeria. African Journal of General Agriculture, 2(1),35 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

13. Abayomi, O. (1997). The agricultural sector in Nigeria: The way forward. CBN Bullion, 21(1), 14-25. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

14. Ayres, R. U. & Warr, B. (2006). Economic growth, technological progress and energy use in the U.S. over the last century: Identifying common trends and structural change in macroeconomic time series, INSEAD. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

15. Ahmed, Y. O. (1993). Bank of the North Pamphlets on Agricultural Financing. Various circulars and Policy Guidelines on Agricultural Financing in Bank of the North Limited. A Paper delivered at Seminars at Bank of the North Human Resources and Development Centre by (Agric. Officer, Bank of the North Limited). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

16. Akinboyo, O.L. (2008). Five decades of agricultural policies: What role has statistics played? CBN Bullion, 32(2),134 – 165. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

17. Apeh and Adesina, M.O. (2004). New perspectives in financing Nigerian agriculture. Enugu: Fourth Dimension Publishing Company [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

18. Bell, C., P. Hazell and R. Slade (1982). Project evaluation in regional Prospective. Baltimore: John Hoplcins University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

19. Bresciani, F. and Valdés, A. (2007).Beyond food production: The role ofagriculture in poverty reduction. Food and Organization (FAO), Rome. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

20. Bidemi, A.T. (2013). The impact of development finance on agricultural growth in Nigeria: Being a Research Project Submitted to the Department of Banking and Finance, University of Abuja in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Award of Bachelor of Sciences Degree in Banking and Finance. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

21. Bolaji, S. Oluwaseyi, K. Emmanuel, D and Shakirat,F. (2018). The Impact of agricultural output on economic growth in Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance. 9(4), 10-14 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

22. Christiaensen, L. and L. Demery (2007).Down to earth agriculture and poverty reduction in Africa’, The World Bank Group. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

23. Chen, S. and M. Ravallion (2008), The Developing World is Poorer than We thought, but no Less successful in the fight against poverty. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

24. Conquest, Robert. (1987). The harvest of sorrow: Soviet collectivization and the terror-famine. Oxford:’ Oxford University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

25. CBN Bullion (2006), Overview of Exchange Rate Management in Nigeria.3, 3. July-September [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

26. Central Bank of Nigeria (1999). Issues in agricultural inputs policy. An empirical distribution and price subsidy in Nigeria. CBN Bullion,2(5),10 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

27. Daramola, E. (2008). Agricultural export potential in Nigeria. American Journal of Experimental Agriculture 7 (1),17-35 Retrieved from https://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/materials/data/777/agriculturalexportpotentialinnigeria [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

28. Ezeabasili, L.I and Herbert, H (2010).Budget deficit, money supply and inflation in Nigeria. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences. 10(19),145-227 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

29. Ewubare, D. B., & Eyitope, J.A. (2015). The effects of public expenditure on agricultural . production output in Nigeria. Journal of Research in Humanities and Social Science 3(11), 7-23. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

30. Eze, O.M (2017), Agricultural sector performance and Nigeria’s economic growth. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics and Sociology 15(1), 1-13. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

31. Essien, N. and Woodford, T. (20oo) Financial intermediation and growth: causality and Causes, Journal of monetary economic, 46(2), 31-77. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

32. Ebere, C., & Osundina, K. (2016). Government expenditure on agriculture and economic. growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Science and Research. 3(8),23-49. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

33. Eboh E.C (2003). An analysis of competitiveness and performance in the Nigeria agriculture sector. Study report submitted to World Bank country office, Abuja. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

34. Ekpo, A.H. and Umoh, O.J. (2012).Overview of the Nigerian economic Growth and Development. Belpot Publishers, Port Harcourt [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

35. Eicher, C& Witt, L. (1964). Agriculture in economic development. New York: McGraw Hill, London. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

36. Emeh, E.B.Onyiye, C. N.(2017). Banking sector credit and the performance of the agricultural sector in Nigeria. European Journal of Scientific Research, 23(2),35 – 55 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

37. Ekine, S.Ireni,P.,Onu, A. and Catherine ,C.(2018).The impact of banking sector reforms and credit supply on agricultural sector: evidence from Nigeria. Proceedings of the Asia Pacific Conference on Business and Social Sciences 2015, Kuala Lumpur (in partnership with the Journal of Developing Areas of Principles for Responsibility. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

38. Enobong, E.(2003). Banking sector credit and the performance of the agricultural sector in Nigeria. European Journal of Scientific Research, 23(2):35 – 55 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

39. FAO (2006). Nigeria at a glance. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Union. Available online http://www.fao.org/nigeria/fao-in-nigeria/nigeria-at-a-glance/en/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

40. Felicia, A. (2017), Exchange rate policy and Nigeria economic growth: A Granger causality impact assessment. International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting. 1(1),1-3. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

41. Fleisher, B.M. and Wang, X. (2001). Efficiency, wages and work incentives in urban and rural china. Journal of Comparative Economics. 29(4), 645-62. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

42. Fatukasa. E (2005). Analysis of budget deficit and Nigeria’s economic development challenges within the context of Ecowas convergence criteria. Study report submitted to ECOWAS country office, Abuja. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

43. Gokal, D, L. & Hanif, R. (2002). The role of agriculture in development. American Economic Review 92(2), 160-164 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

44. Han, D. (1999), The Hukou System and China's Rural Development, The Journal of Developing Areas, 33(6), 355-78. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

45. Hayami, Y., and V. Ruttan. (1985).Agricultural development: An international perspective.” Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

46. Ishola, S.A., & Olaleye, S.O., (2013). Government expenditure on agricultural sector and. economic growth in Nigeria (1981 – 2010). IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS). 8(4), 62-67. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

47. Iganiga, B.O. and Unemhilin, D.O. (2011).The Impact of Federal Government agricultural expenditure on agricultural Output in Nigeria. Journal of Economics, 2(2), 81-88. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

48. Illyas, M. & Siddiqi, M. W., (2010): The Impact of Revenue Gap on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan, International Journal of Human and Social Sciences. 5 (11),24-40 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

49. Jargque-Bera, G. (1987). Theory of Econometrics: (2nd ed). Palgrave Publisher [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

50. Johnson B.F, (1966).Agriculture and structural transformation in developingcountries: A survey of Research. Journal of Economic literature. 8(2),67-75 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

51. Jonathan and Andrew Dorward. (2004). Implications of market and coordination failures for rural development in least developed countries. Journal of International Development 16 (7), 951 – 970. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

52. Krueger, Anne, Maurice Schiff and Alberto Valdes (1991-1992). The Political Economy of agricultural pricing. Washington D.C.: The Johns Hopkins University Press for the World Bank. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

53. Kuznets, Simon, (1966). Modern economic growth: rate, structure, and spread. New Haven. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

54. Karl, M. (1933). Economic Development (11th Edition) Harlow: Pearson Education Limited, .150 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

55. Kamil,N. Sevin, P. and Bekun, L(2017). Measuring performance through capital structure: evidence from banking sector of Pakistan, African Journal of Business Management,5(5),1871-1879. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

56. Lawal, W.A. (2011). An analysis of government spending on agricultural sector and its contribution to GDP in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2(20), 244-250. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

57. Lewis, A. (1955). The Theory of Economic Growth. R.D. Irwin. Homewood, Illinois, 1955. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

58. Labonte, M. A. (2011). Fiscal Deficit and Private Consumption Behavior in Nigeria: 1970-2001. The Indian Journal of Economics; 100(335), 597-607. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

59. Ligon, E. and E. Sadoulet (2008). Estimating the effects of aggregate agricultural growth on the distribution of expenditures .Background paper for the World Development Report 2008, World Bank. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

60. Meijerink, G. & P. Roza. 2007. “The role of agriculture in development. Markets, Chains and Sustainable Development Strategy and Policy” Paper, no. 5. Stichting DLO: Wageningen. Available at: http://www.boci.wur.nl/UK/Publications/ [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

61. Mellor, A. John W. (2001). Faster more Equitable Growth – Agriculture, Employment Multipliers and Poverty Reduction. Research Report prepared for USADD. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

62. Mcgregror, G.(1981). The role of finance in economic development; benefits, risks and politics. European Banking Centre Discussion Paper No 211-038http://www.unitus.it [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

63. Myint.H (1958). Investment in human capital and personal income distribution, journal of political economy.66 (4), 281 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

64. Mankiw, V. U (2013): The empirical analysis of agricultural output and economic growth in Nigeria, African Journal of Business Management, 9(16),599-607, [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

65. Muhammad, L.A. and Atte, O.A. (2016). Analysis of Agricultural production in Nigeria. African Journal of General Agriculture.2 (1),10-20. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

66. Ohaegbu, E.N .2020). Effects of agricultural output and economic growth in Nigeria. Unpublished M.Sc Dissertation, Veritas University Abuja. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

67. Ogwuma, J. (2018). Analysis of Government Expenditure on Agriculture. International Journal of Agricultural Policy.10 (2),23. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

68. Ofili, O. (2014).Why policies fail in Nigeria: An evaluation of agriculture policies made from 1972-1985, OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development, 1(1), 84-86. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

69. Omawale and Rodriguez A.M, (1979). Agricultural credit related to nutrition and national development in the Caribbean”: A case study of the Guyana Agricultural Cooperative Bank in tropical agriculture.56 (1),369. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

70. Obadan, M. I. (1993), Nigeria Exchange Rate Policy and Management. NCEMA Monograph series, 5. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

71. Odi,K.(2013). The composition of public expenditure and economic growth inflow and middle-income countries. raul chamorro-narvaez, Universidad Nacional de Colombia. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

72. Okezie, A. I., Nwosu, C. & Njoku A.C (2013). An assessment of Nigeria expenditure on the agricultural sector: Its relationship with agricultural output. Journal of Economics and International Finance. 5(5),12-23 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

73. Oji-Okoro, I. (2019). Analysis of the contribution of agricultural sector on the nigerian economic development. World Review of Business Research, 1(1), 191 – 200. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

74. Oioma, C. and Ozzubulu E. (2004). Nigerian Economy: Structure, Growth and Development. Benin City: Mindex Publishing. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

75. Okolo, D. A. (2004). “Regional Study on Agricultural Support: Nigeria’s Case,” being Special Study Report prepared for Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

76. Paul, R. and Robert, L. (1986). ). A contribution to the theory of economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 7(70),65-94 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

77. Pesran, M. Shin, P.(1999). Introduction to Econometrics, New York: McGraw-Hill. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

78. Pewok, L. and Oyinlola, O.(2014).Determinants of agricultural credit rationing by commercial banks in South Western Nigeria, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 37: 7-14. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

79. Romer, D. (1956). The Solow Growth Model Advanced Macroeconomics (4th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

80. Reynold, L.G. (1975). Agriculture in Development theory. Yale University Press, London 327. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

81. Saugweme, N. and Matadare,S.(2014). Rural finance for growth and poverty alleviation, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 1593. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

82. Saungweme T, Matandare M (2014) Agricultural Expenditure and Economic Performance in. Zimbabwe (1980-2005). International Journal of Economics Research 5(5),50-59. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

83. Sah, Raaj Kumar and Joseph E. Stiglitz. (1984). The Economics of Price Scissors.The American Economic Review.74 (1),125-138. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

84. Opara (2010). Nigerian Firms' Non-oil export Involvement: An Economic Transformation Paradigm. European Journal of Scientific Research, 40(4), 547-556. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

85. Sylvester & Ayelabola, (2012). Foreign trade and economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria. Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review (OMAN Chapter), 2(1). [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

86. Tombofa, S. S. (2004). Development economics. An introduction”, Port Harcourt:Pearl Publishers. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

87. Tolulope, T. and Etummu,I.(2013). Analysis of financial time series financial econometrics Wiley-Interscience Publication, University of Chicago. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

88. Todaro, M. P. and Smith, S. C. (2003): “Economic Development”, Eight Edition, Singapore: Pearson Education. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

89. Ukeje, R.O. (2003). “Macroeconomics: An Introduction”. Port Harcourt: Davidson Publication [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

90. Uger, F.I. (2013). The impact of Federal Government Expenditure on the agricultural sector.in Nigeria. Publication of Nasarawa State University, Keffi . [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

91. Verbeek, M. (2004). A Guide to Modern Econometrics. West Sussex, England: John Wiley& Sons. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

92. Woolf, S.S & Jones, E.I. (1969). Agrarian change and economic development: the historical problem London: Methuen. Yale University. [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

93. Yusuf,K (2016) Agricultural Financing and Economic Growth in Nigeria: International Journal of Agriculture.10(3),34-40 [Google Scholar] [Crossref]

• Impact of Foreign Direct Investment in India
• Issues Involved in Digitalisation Special Reference to Indian Tourism Growth
• Relationship Marketing and Customer Loyalty in the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Industry in Nairobi County
• Financial Literacy or Financial Inclusion? Which is Which, What is What—To Achieve Uganda’s 10-Fold Economic Growth By 2040
• Harnessing Natural Gas for Economic Transformation: Overcoming the Regulatory and Infrastructural Bottlenecks in Nigeria