Adapting to Oil Price Volatility: A Strategic Review of Supply Chain Responses Over Two Decades
Casandra Okogwu¹, Mercy Odochi Agho², Mojisola Abimbola Adeyinka³, Bukola A. Odulaja⁴, Obinna Arize Ufoaro⁵, Sodrudeen Abolore Ayodeji⁶, Chibuike Daraojimba⁷*
¹Independent Researcher, Lagos, Nigeria
^2,3,4Independent Researcher, Nigeria
⁵Department of Economics Education, Nwafor Orizu College of Education, Nsugbe, Nigeria
⁶Matrix Energy Limited, Lagos, Nigeria
⁷University of Pretoria, South Africa
*Corresponding Author

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51244/IJRSI.2023.101007

Received: 08 September 2023; Revised: 28 September 2023; Accepted: 03 October 2023; Published: 31 October 2023

ABSTRACT

The global oil sector has witnessed unprecedented volatility in recent years, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of supply chain strategies and adaptations. This study meticulously explored the current landscape, employing a systematic literature review methodology to dissect the intricate dynamics of the oil sector’s supply chain management. The initial phase involved identifying key themes and developing pertinent keywords to guide the literature search, followed by a rigorous analysis of case studies and regional perspectives, integrating multidisciplinary insights and technological innovations.

The findings reveal a sector at the cusp of transformation, grappling with the challenges posed by price fluctuations and global events. The study highlighted the significant strides made in supply chain logistics and green management practices, albeit with varying degrees of success. Furthermore, it underscored the potential of leveraging advanced analytics and predictive models to enhance demand forecasting, thereby fostering a more resilient and adaptive supply chain.

The study recommends a strategic shift towards diversification and sustainability, urging oil companies to broaden their energy portfolios to mitigate the risks associated with price volatility. Additionally, it advocates for the integration of technology into supply chain operations, fostering regional collaborations, and investing in human capital development to navigate the complexities of the evolving market dynamics.

In conclusion, the study serves as a beacon, guiding the oil sector towards a future marked by innovation, resilience, and sustainability. It calls for a proactive approach, where companies are urged to anticipate market shifts and craft strategies that align with emerging trends and consumer demands.

Keywords: Supply Chain Management, Oil Price Volatility, Technological Integration, Regional Collaborations.

INTRODUCTION

Background of the Oil Sector and Price Volatility

The oil sector, a cornerstone in the global economy, has undergone substantial transformations over the years, characterized by periods of price volatility that have significantly influenced various economic sectors. Understanding the intricate dynamics of the oil sector necessitates a deep dive into the historical context, the repercussions of price fluctuations, and the contemporary challenges and opportunities that have emerged in the era of big data.

Historically, the oil sector has been susceptible to price volatility, a phenomenon that has profoundly impacted both macro and microeconomic variables. Since the oil shocks of the 1970s, the sector has witnessed significant shifts, with different sectors responding variably to oil price impulses. For instance, in Japan, the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer, sectors like commercial, industrial, and transport have shown strong sensitivity to drastic oil price fluctuations, while others, such as the residential sector, remained relatively unaffected (Taghizadeh‐Hesary et al., 2015).

Moreover, the repercussions of oil price volatility extend beyond the traditional sectors, influencing the renewable energy market as well. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, for instance, cast a shadow on the clean energy sector, with significant implications for stock market indices. The pandemic underscored the necessity for investors and policymakers to consider the volatility index induced by infectious diseases when strategizing for renewable energy markets (Ghosh, 2022).

In the Libyan context, fluctuations in oil prices have historically had either negative or positive effects across all economic sectors, including agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and transport. Notably, the manufacturing sector did not experience a significant impact in aggregate terms, despite the increases in oil prices (Aimer, 2017).

As we navigate through the era of big data, new methodologies are emerging to gauge the risks associated with crude oil prices. Leveraging natural language processing to extract dynamic risk factors from online news, recent studies propose innovative approaches to forecast the value-at-risk (VaR) of crude oil, thereby enhancing the accuracy of crude oil VaR measurement and facilitating more effective risk management in the international oil market (Zhao et al., 2019).

Economic Theories Behind Oil Price Volatility

The volatility of oil prices has been the subject of extensive research, given its significant impact on the global economy. Various economic theories have been proposed to explain the fluctuations in oil prices, and this section explores these theories, drawing upon recent scholarly insights.

The oil market is a complex entity influenced by a myriad of factors, including macroeconomic variables and sector-specific dynamics. In Japan, the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer, different sectors have exhibited varying sensitivities to oil price fluctuations. For instance, while the residential sector remained relatively unaffected, the commercial, industrial, and transport sectors demonstrated significant sensitivity to drastic oil price changes, especially post the Fukushima disaster in 2011, which led to a greater reliance on oil imports and a consequent decline in sensitivity to oil price volatility (Taghizadeh-Hesary et al., 2015).

Furthermore, the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in influencing crude oil price fluctuations cannot be understated. Feng et al. (2020) introduced a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) model to analyse the time-varying impact of EPU on crude oil price fluctuations. Their findings revealed that global EPU significantly influences crude oil price volatility, with varying impacts depending on the nature of major events and the specific characteristics of net-oil exporting and importing countries.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has also brought to light the dynamic causality interplay between the pandemic, oil price changes, stock market volatilities, and economic uncertainty. Khalfaoui et al. (2022) utilized wavelet coherence and network analysis to examine the time-varying causal effects of the pandemic on oil prices and economic uncertainty in major oil-importing and exporting countries. Their study underscored the profound influence of the pandemic on oil prices, with stronger causality effects observed in the longer horizon, indicating a persistent impact of the pandemic on the oil market.

Moreover, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region presents a unique case study in understanding the relationship between oil price fluctuations and economic growth. Abdelsalam (2020) explored the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price changes and economic growth in MENA countries, highlighting the divergent impacts of oil price changes and volatility on oil-exporting and importing countries within the region. The study emphasized the role of institutional quality in mitigating the impact of oil price changes on economic growth, suggesting a nuanced approach to policy formulation in the face of oil price volatility.

The economic theories behind oil price volatility encompass a complex interplay of sector-specific dynamics, policy uncertainties, global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and regional specificities. A comprehensive understanding of these theories is vital for policymakers and stakeholders in navigating the intricate landscape of the global oil market.

Oil Industry And Price Volatility Overview

Historical Perspective on Oil Price Changes and Supply Chain Reactions

The oil sector, a cornerstone in the global energy landscape, has witnessed significant fluctuations in pricing dynamics, which have invariably influenced supply chain reactions over the years. A deep dive into the historical trajectory of oil price changes and the ensuing supply chain reactions offers a nuanced understanding of the sector’s evolution and the strategies adopted to navigate the complex landscape.

Historically, the fossil fuel supply chain, including oil and gas, has been characterized by a series of economic, social, and environmental consequences. Olson and Lenzmann (2016) emphasized adopting a broader perspective to fully comprehend the fossil fuel supply chain’s impacts. The authors highlighted the repercussions of the business-as-usual operation of fossil fuel supply chains, which have been largely responsible for global warming, with a significant percentage of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. This reflection upon the historical and present fossil fuel supply chain offers a vital perspective in understanding the broader implications of oil price changes and supply chain reactions.

Furthermore, the transition towards a sustainable energy landscape necessitates formulating policies that enhance the economic feasibility of this transition. Van den Bergh (2013) proposed a modification in corporate law to hold shareholders legally accountable for the environmental impacts of the firms they invest in. This policy suggestion aims to alter capital investment allocation in favour of cleaner technologies, thereby fostering a sustainable energy transition. This approach underscores the critical role of investment dynamics in shaping the reactions of the supply chain to oil price fluctuations.

Moreover, the coal industry, a significant energy sector component, has undergone transformations reflecting human civilisation’s and industrialisation’s evolution. Ma et al. (2021) provided insights into the future outlook of the coal industry, discussing the factors that would significantly influence its trajectory. The authors highlighted the potential of new coal production technologies in making the industry cleaner and more competitive, thereby influencing the global market dynamics and supply chain reactions.

In addition, the estimation of potential indirect economic losses resulting from natural disasters offers a unique perspective in understanding supply chain reactions. Penchev (2016) focused on the interruptions in economic activities not related to the damaged enterprises, emphasizing the chain reaction of losses in the supply chain within a specific region. This approach offers a nuanced understanding of the potential indirect losses that could be incurred due to disruptions in the supply chain, thereby offering a comprehensive perspective on the historical dynamics of oil price changes and supply chain reactions.

The historical perspective on oil price changes and supply chain reactions offers a rich tapestry of insights into the complex interplay between economic, social, and environmental factors. This section seeks to foster a deeper understanding of the strategies adopted to navigate the intricate landscape shaped by oil price fluctuations through a meticulous analysis of historical trends and contemporary developments.

The Role of Global Events and Market Dynamics in Price Volatility

The oil market, a vital component of the global economy, has been significantly influenced by various global events and market dynamics, which have induced notable price volatility over the years. This section seeks to elucidate the intricate relationship between global events, market dynamics, and oil price volatility, drawing upon recent scholarly insights to offer a comprehensive analysis.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic marked a significant global event that profoundly impacted the oil market. Albulescu (2020) conducted a meticulous investigation into the repercussions of the pandemic on crude oil prices, revealing that the daily reported cases of new infections exerted a marginal negative influence on the prices in the long run. Furthermore, the pandemic amplified financial market volatility, indirectly affecting the dynamics of crude oil prices. This study underscores the complex interplay between global health crises and market dynamics, highlighting the necessity for a nuanced understanding of these relationships to navigate the volatile landscape effectively.

Moreover, the evolving market dynamics of bio-based plastics have garnered considerable attention, with significant developments being witnessed in recent years. Moshood et al. (2021) delineated the challenges and opportunities in this sector, emphasizing the influence of global events such as fluctuations in GDP, oil prices, and bioplastic feedstock prices on the bioplastics industry. The authors highlighted the sector’s sensitivity to macro-economic climates, indicating the substantial potential for growth, albeit being susceptible to political and economic impacts. This analysis offers a broader perspective on the market dynamics influencing price volatility, extending beyond the conventional oil sector to encompass emerging industries such as bioplastics.

Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced various sectors, including the global economy, the stock market, and the energy sector. Hasan (2021) examined the spill over effects of the pandemic, revealing that the stock markets were more sensitive to the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the real economy. The energy sector, in particular, witnessed substantial impacts, characterized by a decline in power consumption and a notable reduction in oil prices. This study enhances the understanding of the multifaceted impacts of global health crises on different sectors, offering valuable insights for policymakers and governments to formulate effective strategies to mitigate the adverse effects.

Additionally, the oil market has been influenced by various global political and economic events, which have induced structural changes in the market dynamics. Lin and Tsai (2019) explored the relations between oil price changes and fear gauges in the global political and economic environment. The authors suggested that investors in the global oil market should consider the impacts of major global events on oil prices, along with the correlations between oil prices and fear gauges. This analysis offers a comprehensive perspective on the market dynamics influencing oil price volatility, emphasizing the necessity for a nuanced understanding of these relationships to navigate the complex landscape effectively.

Supply Chain Strategies Adopted During Past Oil Price Crises

The oil sector, integral to the global economy, has undergone numerous crises, primarily due to fluctuations in oil prices, necessitating the implementation of robust supply chain strategies to mitigate adverse impacts and ensure sustainability. This section provides a comprehensive analysis of the strategies adopted during past oil price crises, focusing on the period between 2003 and 2023, and draws upon scholarly insights. A study by Udoh et al. (2023) emphasized the vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s economic and business climate due to oil price fluctuations and recommended economic diversification and investments in both trade and non-trade sectors as a strategy to reduce oil demand-supply chain risk exposure and disruption. This approach is aimed at mitigating the persistent effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic indicators, economic growth, and the business climate.

Further, Restuccia et al. (2022) underscored the importance of assessing the environmental impacts of oil production to devise sustainable supply chain models. Their research, which compared different extraction methods of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), concluded that bio-gasification was the most environmentally beneficial recovery process, offering greater benefits than composting.

In addition, a study by Min (2022) explored the repercussions of escalating oil prices on commodity prices from energy supply chain perspectives. The study investigated the underlying causes of oil price hikes and proposed mitigation strategies for energy-induced supply chain risks, based on an analysis of secondary data spanning four decades.

Moreover, a study by Beiranvand, Firouzabadi, and Dorniani (2022) delved into the aspects of sustainable green service supply chain management in oil and gas industries. The study aimed to provide a framework to assess sustainable green service supply chain management dimensions, focusing on organizational and environmental factors. The research highlighted the importance of green logistics and improved environmental performance throughout the service supply chain as a valuable resource for sustainable competitive advantage, emphasizing the management of environmental, social, and economic risks and the enhancement of cooperation for creating sustainable services

Objectives of the Study

1. Assessing the resilience and adaptability of supply chains to oil price volatility
2. To understand the strategic decisions made by oil companies in response to price changes
3. To highlight the future of supply chain strategies in anticipation of oil price fluctuations

Significance of Supply Chain Adaptability in the Face of Oil Price Fluctuations

In the contemporary global economy, the oil sector stands as a pivotal entity, with its price fluctuations reverberating across various economic dimensions. One of the critical areas influenced by these fluctuations is the supply chain, where adaptability has emerged as a significant factor in mitigating the adverse effects of oil price volatility. This section elucidates the significance of supply chain adaptability in navigating the complex landscape shaped by oil price fluctuations, drawing upon recent scholarly insights.

The oil sector’s price fluctuations profoundly impact economic growth, as evidenced in the Ghanaian context. Bondzie et al. (2014) employed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to explore the repercussions of oil price and monetary policy shocks on Ghana’s economic growth. Their findings underscored a complex interplay between interest rate shocks and price dynamics, highlighting the need for adaptable supply chain strategies to navigate the intricate economic landscape of oil price fluctuations.

Furthermore, integrating sustainability principles into supply chain design has emerged as a vital approach to fostering adaptability. Ganev et al. (2021) proposed a multi-objective approach for the optimal design of a sustainable biodiesel/diesel supply chain, incorporating economic, environmental, and social impacts. Their study delineated strategies for optimizing the number, sizes, and locations of bio-refineries and solid waste plants, fostering a resilient supply chain that adapts to volatile oil market dynamics.

Moreover, the oil sector’s price fluctuations directly affect agricultural yields, particularly in the context of oil palm production. Khor et al. (2021) developed a model to assess the impact of El Niño events on oil palm yields in Malaysia, correlating with the Oceanic Niño Index to gauge production and economic losses. Their study underscored the necessity for adaptable supply chain strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climatic events, which are exacerbated by oil price fluctuations.

Furthermore, the oil price fluctuations have a significant bearing on food prices, particularly in oil-exporting countries. Ding et al. (2020) examined the impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices in high and low-income oil-exporting countries, considering different periods and economic structures. Their findings highlighted a complex relationship between oil and food prices, emphasizing the critical role of supply chain adaptability in maintaining equilibrium in the long run, especially during crisis periods.

Purpose of the Strategic Review

The overarching purpose of this strategic review is to delineate a comprehensive understanding of the evolving dynamics in the oil sector, particularly focusing on the adaptability of supply chains amidst oil price fluctuations. This review aims to serve as a pivotal resource for stakeholders in the oil sector, including policymakers, industry leaders, and academics, facilitating informed decision-making grounded in robust analysis and insights.

Firstly, the review seeks to unravel the complex interplay between oil price fluctuations and supply chain operations, offering a nuanced analysis of the economic impacts and repercussions on various sectors. By delving deep into the historical context and the current state of the oil sector, the review intends to shed light on the critical factors influencing supply chain adaptability, thereby fostering a deeper understanding of the sector’s intricacies.

Secondly, the review aims to highlight the significance of incorporating sustainability principles into supply chain strategies, emphasizing the role of innovative approaches in fostering resilience and adaptability. Through a critical analysis of recent developments and trends, the review seeks to offer insights into the potential pathways for integrating sustainability into supply chain operations, promoting economic resilience and environmental stewardship.

Furthermore, the review intends to serve as a platform for fostering dialogue and collaboration among stakeholders, encouraging the exchange of ideas and insights to drive forward-thinking strategies in the oil sector. By facilitating a collaborative approach, the review aims to catalyse the development of innovative solutions to the challenges posed by oil price fluctuations, fostering a sustainable and resilient oil sector.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Literature Search Strategy for Oil Price Volatility

The volatile nature of oil prices has been a subject of extensive research, especially in the context of its impact on supply chain strategies in the oil sector. The recent global events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, have further accentuated the necessity to understand and strategize for oil price fluctuations. This section delineates the strategy adopted to search the literature pertinent to oil price volatility and its implications on supply chain adaptations.

The methodology adopted for this review involved a multifaceted approach. Ghosh (2022) emphasized the importance of considering various factors such as interest rates, oil prices, volatility index, and geopolitical risk in assessing the impact on the energy sector, especially during unprecedented times like the COVID-19 pandemic. This approach was instrumental in understanding the interconnectedness of global events and their cascading impacts on the oil sector (Ghosh, 2022).

Min (2022) provided insights into the impact of energy price volatility on commodity prices from energy supply chain perspectives, examining four decades of secondary data obtained from multiple sources. This approach was crucial in investigating the causes of oil price hikes and determining how significantly oil prices influence commodity prices, thereby proposing ways to mitigate energy-induced supply chain risks (Min, 2022).

The study by Udoh et al. (2023) scrutinized oil price fluctuation’s symmetric effect on the business climate, economic growth, and macroeconomic indicators using daily data from 2012 to 2022. The structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodologies were adopted to examine the long-short-run symmetric effect, providing significant insights into the persistent oil price shock effect on macroeconomic indicators, economic growth, and business climate (Udoh et al., 2023).

Identification of Key Themes

The first step in the literature search strategy involved identifying key themes central to understanding the dynamics of oil price volatility. The recent study by Zakeri et al. (2022) highlighted the profound impacts of global crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, on the energy sector, including supply chain disruptions and oil price fluctuations. This study serves as a cornerstone in identifying the broader themes of global crises and their implications on the energy sector, including oil price volatility (Zakeri et al., 2022).

Database Selection and Search Criteria

The selection of databases for the literature search was guided by the need to access peer-reviewed and credible sources that provide comprehensive insights into the subject matter. The databases were chosen based on their repository of research articles in the fields of energy economics, supply chain management, and global market dynamics. The search criteria were formulated to include articles published from the year 2000 onwards, to capture the most recent trends and developments in the sector.

Analysis of Case Studies and Regional Perspectives

In order to gain a nuanced understanding of the topic, the literature search strategy also involved an analysis of case studies and regional perspectives. For instance, the study by Wright and Cafiero (2011) sheds light on the food security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa region, exacerbated by grain price fluctuations, which are similar to the oil price volatility dynamics. This study provides a regional perspective on the strategies adopted to mitigate the impacts of price fluctuations, offering insights that can be extrapolated to the oil sector (Wright & Cafiero, 2011).

Synthesis of Findings and Gap Identification

The final step in the literature search strategy involves the synthesis of findings from the selected articles and the identification of gaps in the existing literature. This step is crucial in framing the objectives of the study, which aim to assess the resilience and adaptability of supply chains to oil price volatility, understand the strategic decisions made by oil companies in response to price changes, and highlight the future of supply chain strategies in anticipation of oil price fluctuations.

Integration of Multidisciplinary Insights

The literature search strategy incorporated insights from various disciplines, including economics, environmental science, and geopolitics, to foster a holistic understanding of the oil sector’s responses to price volatility. For instance, the study by Yaya, Otu, and Labonté (2020) explores the implications of globalization in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing the need for Africa to reposition itself to address both immediate and remote challenges. This study serves as a testament to the interconnectedness of global events and their cascading impacts on various sectors, including the oil sector. It underscores the need to integrate multidisciplinary insights to craft resilient and adaptive strategies for changing global dynamics (Yaya, Otu, & Labonté, 2020).

Technological Innovations and Sustainability Considerations

In the wake of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, technological innovations have emerged as a pivotal theme in the literature pertaining to oil price volatility. The study by Al-Aboosi and El-Halwagi (2019) delineates a stochastic optimization approach for the design of shale gas/oil wastewater treatment systems, highlighting the role of technology in enhancing sustainability and efficiency in the oil sector. This study forms a critical part of the literature search strategy, offering insights into the technological advancements shaping the oil sector’s future, and their implications on supply chain strategies amidst oil price fluctuations (Al-Aboosi & El-Halwagi, 2019).

Future Directions and Policy Implications

The literature search strategy also encompassed an analysis of the future directions and policy implications arising from oil price volatility. The objective here was to identify potential pathways and strategies that can guide the oil sector in navigating the complexities of a volatile market. This involves a critical evaluation of the policy frameworks that govern the oil sector and an analysis of the emerging trends that are likely to shape the future of supply chain strategies in the sector.

Development of Keywords Related to Oil Price and Supply Chain

The development of keywords is a critical step in conducting a systematic literature review, as it guides the search strategy to retrieve relevant studies from selected databases. In this context, keywords were formulated to encompass various facets of oil price volatility and supply chain strategies. The selection of appropriate keywords is often guided by a thorough understanding of the existing literature and the nuances of the research topic (Zamani, 2022). This process is iterative and dynamic, involving continuous refinement based on preliminary search results to ensure a comprehensive and focused literature search.

Criteria for Including and Excluding Studies

Establishing clear criteria for the inclusion and exclusion of studies is a fundamental aspect of conducting a systematic literature review. This process ensures that the selected studies are credible and align with the research objectives. The inclusion criteria were centered on the relevance of the studies to the research objectives, their contribution to the understanding of oil price volatility, and the credibility of the sources. Conversely, studies that lacked empirical evidence or did not provide substantial insights into the topic were excluded. This approach is in line with established methodologies for conducting systematic literature reviews, where transparent inclusion and exclusion criteria are used to select studies for analysis (Hoang et al., 2021).

The literature search strategy adopted in this study is a comprehensive approach to understanding the multifaceted dynamics of oil price volatility and its implications on supply chain strategies in the oil sector. By integrating insights from various disciplines, analysing case studies and regional perspectives, and incorporating technological innovations and sustainability considerations, this strategy aims to foster a nuanced understanding of the subject matter. The findings from this literature search will form the basis for addressing the objectives of the study, paving the way for a detailed analysis of the resilience and adaptability of supply chains to oil price volatility, the strategic decisions made by oil companies in response to price changes, and the future of supply chain strategies in anticipation of oil price fluctuations.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Case Studies on Supply Chain Adaptations to Oil Price Changes

The global supply chain landscape has undergone significant transformations, particularly in the wake of recent economic and health crises. This section delves into various case studies that shed light on the adaptations and strategies implemented by different sectors in response to oil price fluctuations. These case studies provide a comprehensive understanding of the intricate dynamics and the evolving nature of supply chains in the context of oil price changes.

a. Global Supply Chain Evolutionary Design

The first case study, conducted by Handfield et al. (2020), scrutinizes the repercussions of recent global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and trade wars on the global supply chain. The study, grounded in the constructal law of physics, aims to guide future global supply chain management scholarship. Through interviews with senior VPs from two multinational corporations in the USA and the UK, the study unveils the disruptions experienced by a multinational automobile parts supplier and an earth-moving equipment manufacturer. The authors argue that these disruptions are forging new obstacles that will reshape the future trajectory of supply chains, emphasizing the necessity for risk-recovery contingency strategies and the revitalization of lean and local production systems. This study serves as a testament to the massive forces of economic disruption witnessed in recent years, urging supply chain managers to rethink their strategies and adapt to the changing landscape (Handfield et al., 2020).

b. Sustainable Biogas Supply Chain in Malaysia

In the energy sector, the sustainability of biogas production supply chains has been a focal point of discussion. Aziz et al. (2020) proposes a life cycle assessment (LCA)-based environmental sustainability evaluation framework for biogas production in Malaysia. The framework serves as a guideline for stakeholders and decision-makers to enhance the sustainability and quality of biogas production. The case study conducted as part of this research illustrates the environmental sustainability of a zero waste discharge treatment process, where biogas is produced with maximum water recycle and reuse. The study underscores the importance of considering various aspects, including electricity sources and upstream activities, to holistically ensure the sustainability of the system (Aziz et al., 2020).

c. Crude Oil Supply Chain Design Under Uncertainty

The oil industry, a pivotal player in the global economy, is characterized by a complex crude oil supply network. Beiranvand et al. (2018) develop a robust optimization model to maximize the profitability of the entire chain while accounting for uncertainties in price and demand. The case study data indicates that employing robust optimization techniques can enhance the profitability of the crude oil supply chain, thereby presenting a viable strategy for navigating the complexities and uncertainties inherent in the oil industry (Beiranvand et al., 2018).

d. Profit Margin Analysis in the Patchouli Oil Supply Chain in Indonesia

In a different sector, Indonesia’s patchouli oil supply chain presents a unique case study. Rahmayanti et al. (2018) analyse the profit margins at various stages in the supply chain, highlighting the disparities in profit acquisition among different stakeholders. The study reveals that intermediary traders reap the highest profit margins despite not contributing to the product’s added value. This case study calls attention to the need for a more equitable distribution of profits within the supply chain, ensuring that all stakeholders, including farmers, are adequately compensated for their contributions (Rahmayanti et al., 2018).

These case studies offer a glimpse into the diverse strategies and adaptations implemented by various sectors in response to oil price changes. From global supply chain redesigns to sustainability initiatives in the energy sector, these studies underscore the necessity for innovation and adaptability in the face of evolving challenges. As the global landscape continues to change, supply chain managers and stakeholders must remain vigilant and responsive to ensure the resilience and sustainability of their supply chains.

Identified Gaps in Current Understanding of Supply Chain Responses

The dynamic nature of the global market, coupled with the advent of Industry 4.0 and the pressing concerns of climate change, necessitates a critical evaluation of existing supply chain strategies, particularly in the oil sector. A comprehensive understanding of the current gaps in supply chain responses is pivotal to fostering innovation and sustainability in this sector. This section delineates the identified gaps in the current understanding of supply chain responses, drawing insights from recent scholarly investigations.

a. Evolving Metrics in Supply Chain Performance Evaluation

The SCOR model, a widely acknowledged benchmark in describing supply chain activities, is undergoing significant transformations in the face of technological advancements and structural shifts in supply chains. Ayyıldız and Gumus (2021) propose an extension of this model, SCOR 4.0, incorporating new metrics pertinent to Industry 4.0 and digitalization. This novel model, structured as a three-level hierarchical framework, facilitates a nuanced evaluation of supply chain performance, addressing the multi-criteria decision-making problem inherent in supply chain management. A case study focusing on the oil supply chain substantiates the applicability of this model in enhancing supply chain strategies globally, thereby bridging a critical gap in the existing literature (Ayyıldız & Gumus, 2021).

b. Sustainable Supply Chain Management in the Oil and Gas Industry

Despite the burgeoning interest in sustainable supply chain management (SSCM), a conspicuous gap in research specific to the oil and gas industry exists. Ahmad et al. (2017) underscores the fragmented focus of existing studies, which predominantly concentrate on individual stages of the supply chain, neglecting a holistic approach that encompasses economic, environmental, and social dimensions. The authors propose an integrative framework that operationalizes both internal and external contextual factors influencing the outcomes of SSCM practices in the oil and gas industry. This framework serves as a pivotal tool in formulating strategies that align a company’s internal capabilities with its external environment, thereby addressing a significant gap in the current understanding (Ahmad et al., 2017).

c. Technological Integration and Optimization in Oil Supply Chains

The integration and optimization of technology within oil supply chains are pivotal for enhancing efficiency and responsiveness. However, there exists a substantial gap in understanding the optimal methods of integrating emerging technologies to address the unique challenges faced by the oil sector. Alomar (2022) explored the contributions of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to supply chain management, emphasizing its role in delivering powerful optimization capabilities required for more accurate capacity planning, improved productivity, high quality, lower costs, and greater output. The research highlighted that AI fosters safer working conditions and has the potential to improve various subfields within supply chain management. This study contributes to bridging the existing knowledge gap by providing insights into the potential benefits and challenges of technological integration in oil supply chains, focusing on the advancements and applications of AI (Alomar, 2022).

d. Climate Change Impacts on the Oil Sector

Climate change poses a formidable challenge to the oil sector, impacting its operation, reliability, and growth trajectory. Katopodis and Sfetsos (2019) review the existing climate change risk-assessment frameworks and their implications on the oil sector’s critical services. The study identifies significant gaps in the current knowledge, particularly concerning the integration of climate change considerations into industry design, operational strategies, and service thresholds. The authors propose a comprehensive hazard threshold matrix that delineates the linkages between climate variables and oil industry thresholds, offering insights into potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study serves as a precursor to future research directions aimed at fostering resilience and adaptability in the oil sector amidst the changing climate dynamics (Katopodis & Sfetsos, 2019).

The identified gaps in the current understanding of supply chain responses underscore the necessity for a multi-faceted approach that integrates technological advancements, sustainability considerations, and climate change adaptations. Addressing these gaps is pivotal to fostering innovation and resilience in the oil sector’s supply chain management, facilitating a transition towards a more sustainable and efficient future. As the sector navigates through the complexities of a globalizing world, a comprehensive understanding of these gaps will serve as a cornerstone in devising strategies that align with the evolving market dynamics and environmental imperatives.

Evolution of Supply Chain Strategies in Response to Oil Price Volatility

In recent years, the oil sector has witnessed a paradigm shift in supply chain strategies, primarily driven by the volatility of oil prices and a series of unprecedented global events. The fluctuating oil prices have impacted the economic dynamics and propelled industries to explore sustainable alternatives and adapt to new market realities (Dellomonaco et al., 2010).

The advent of synthetic biology has ushered in a new era where industries are increasingly focusing on producing fuels from renewable resources. This transition responds to growing concerns about climate change, oil supply security, and depleting reserves. The integration of synthetic biology with metabolic engineering has facilitated the development of optimal biocatalysts, paving the way for the sustainable production of biofuels. These advancements are perceived as a beacon of hope, promising to mitigate the challenges posed by the volatile oil market (Dellomonaco et al., 2010).

Parallelly, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the global supply chain’s uncertainties. The imposition of border closures and stringent migration measures have disrupted the global supply chains, particularly affecting regions with economies heavily reliant on single export-oriented industries such as oil and gas. In Africa, for instance, the pandemic has intensified the adverse impacts on employment and poverty, with tumbling oil prices and reduced global demand for non-oil products further aggravating the situation. Governments are now grappling with the challenge of formulating context-specific policies to safeguard public health while minimizing the economic repercussions (Yaya et al., 2020).

Furthermore, the pandemic has underscored the necessity for diversifying economies and reducing dependence on external funding. Although in its nascent stage, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement is being viewed as a potential catalyst for fostering regional trade and cooperation, thereby generating public revenues and mitigating the fiscal challenges posed by the pandemic (Yaya et al., 2020).

In the context of Indonesia, a significant producer of raw essential oil, the industry has been marred by low crop production, fluctuating prices, and complex supply chains. Despite being endowed with abundant resources, the region has been unable to meet the global demand for essential oils, primarily due to the quality of products not aligning with international standards. The need for enhancing production, improving quality, and diversifying products is more pressing than ever. Addressing these issues necessitates formulating new strategies that focus on increasing production, enhancing quality, and diversifying products to provide added value and meet the global demand (Alighiri et al., 2017).

Moreover, the banking sector in emerging economies has undergone significant transformations, characterized by privatization, consolidation, and the entry of foreign banks. These changes have brought about bank efficiency and performance improvements, fostering a competitive climate conducive to economic growth. The recent reforms in the banking sector indicate a broader trend of structural changes in emerging economies, potentially influencing the evolution of supply chain strategies in the oil sector (Bank for International Settlements, 2006).

The evolution of supply chain strategies in response to oil price volatility is multifaceted, influenced by a confluence of factors including technological advancements, global events, and market dynamics. As the oil sector navigates through these turbulent times, the focus is increasingly shifting towards sustainability, diversification, and resilience. The integration of innovative approaches and the adaptation to changing market realities are expected to shape the future trajectory of supply chain strategies in the oil sector, steering it towards a path of sustainable growth and development.

Diversification Strategies in Response to Price Volatility

Oil companies are increasingly adopting diversification strategies to mitigate the risks associated with oil price volatility. The fluctuating prices of oil have a significant impact on the landed cost of oil products in local markets, affecting daily necessities like food, clothing, and automobile transportation. To hedge against these price risks, companies are exploring derivatives-based strategies, focusing on term contracts rather than relying heavily on spot supplies, which may be unreliable and exhibit high price volatility (Massami, Manyas, & Myamba, 2018).

The study by Massami et al. (2018) applied Grey Theory to evaluate the derivatives-based strategies of Tanzanian oil product imports, concluding that the applicability of oil derivatives by Tanzanian importers is high. The government and stakeholders are encouraged to continue promoting awareness on the benefits of derivative instruments in purchasing oil products, which would ultimately bring relief to consumers of oil products in the country.

Moreover, diversification strategies also involve exploring alternative energy sources and technologies, reducing dependence on oil revenues, and mitigating energy-induced supply chain risks (Min, 2022). The paper by Hokey Min (2022) investigates the causes of oil price hikes and their influence on commodity prices, proposing ways to mitigate energy-induced supply chain risks by analysing secondary data spanning four decades.

Sustainability Initiatives under Price Fluctuations

In the face of price fluctuations, sustainability initiatives are becoming increasingly crucial in the oil sector. The global supply chains of critical metals, which are integral to various industries, have been disrupted by events such as the COVID-19 outbreak and geopolitical crises. To address the supply chain challenges, companies are adopting responses such as supply diversification, stockpiling, material substitution, recycling, and circular economy strategy, price volatility hedging, and supply chain traceability (Sun, 2022).

The review by Xiaoqi Sun (2022) provides insights into the sources, propagation, and responses of supply chain risks, offering a comprehensive understanding of how risks propagate horizontally and vertically in the supply chain. The review emphasizes the urgency and need for further studies on supply chain risks and resilience, contributing to a smooth clean energy transition.

Evaluating the Success and Failures of Past Supply Chain Responses

With its intricate global supply chains, the oil and gas sector has historically been at the forefront of supply chain management innovations. Over the years, the industry has witnessed many supply chain strategies, each with its own successes and failures, particularly in response to oil price volatility.

One of the most notable successes in the industry’s supply chain management has been its ability to implement and benefit from comprehensive supply-chain logistics. As Chima (2007) elucidates, the oil and gas industry offer a classic model for implementing supply-chain management techniques, linking upstream suppliers and downstream distributors through a seamless flow of materials, information, and capital. The case studies introduced in Chima’s work highlight how enhancing supply-chain logistics can lead to improved efficiency and profitability, even in the face of challenges such as fluctuating oil prices.

However, the journey towards achieving such successes has not been without its challenges. The industry’s attempts at integrating renewable energy technologies, particularly solar PV technology, into their supply chains have been met with mixed results. Pinkse and Buuse (2012) compare oil and gas firms’ strategies regarding solar PV technology investments. Their findings suggest that while some firms have successfully integrated solar PV technology, many face challenges, leading to a trend of moving away from solar and towards a ‘recarbonization’ of business activities. This indicates a potential missed opportunity for the industry to diversify its energy sources and reduce its carbon footprint.

Furthermore, as the global push for sustainability intensifies, the oil and gas sector has been under increasing pressure to adopt green supply chain management practices. Jabbour et al. (2017) shed light on the human aspects of this transition, emphasizing the role of green human resource management in enhancing the effectiveness of green supply chain strategies. Their research in the Brazilian automotive battery industry suggests that firms with a clear green human resource management strategy are more successful in adopting green supply chain practices. This underscores the importance of implementing green strategies and ensuring that they are effectively managed and supported by the organization’s human resources.

External factors such as supplier selection in uncertain environments have also influenced the oil sector’s supply chain responses. Phochanikorn and Tan (2019) discuss the challenges faced by the Thailand Palm Oil Products Industry in green supplier selection. Their research highlights the importance of considering procurement’s psychological and behavioural factors in the selection process, suggesting that a more holistic approach to supplier selection can lead to better supply chain outcomes.

The oil and gas sector’s supply chain responses to oil price volatility have been a mix of successes and failures. While the industry has made significant strides in areas such as supply-chain logistics and green supply chain management, challenges remain, particularly in integrating renewable energy technologies and managing external factors that influence supply chain decisions. As the industry continues to evolve, it will be crucial for firms to learn from past successes and failures to build more resilient and sustainable supply chains for the future.

Predicting Future Supply Chain Strategies Based on Historical Data and Trends

Predicting future supply chain strategies in the oil sector necessitates meticulously analysing historical data and trends. The volatile nature of the oil sector demands a robust predictive framework that can integrate various data sources to forecast future trends accurately. In recent years, integrating big data analytics, particularly social media data, has emerged as a potent tool in enhancing demand forecasting accuracy in supply chains. Iftikhar and Khan (2020) proposed a framework that leverages sentiment, trend, and word analysis from social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook, coupled with predictive modelling on historical sales data to forecast product demand. This innovative approach has positively improved demand forecasting accuracy in supply chains, thereby adding value to supply chain performance.

Furthermore, predictive analytics is not confined to the oil sector alone. Various industries are adopting sophisticated forecasting models to enhance their supply chain processes. For instance, a study conducted by Bousqaoui, Slimani, and Achchab (2021) presented a comparative analysis of four time series demand forecasting models, including statistical and deep learning models. Their research, based on a real-life dataset from a supermarket in Morocco, revealed that convolutional neural networks slightly outperformed other models in forecasting results, indicating the potential of deep learning models in predicting future trends in supply chains.

While predicting future supply chain strategies, it is also crucial to consider the broader environmental and economic factors that influence the oil sector. For instance, the agricultural sector in Qatar has undergone significant transformations in recent years, adapting to the challenges posed by its hot arid climate and limited availability of agricultural resources (Karanisa et al., 2021). This evolution showcases the potential for developing national food security strategies based on substantial expansion in food production, indicating a renewed interest in enhancing the agricultural sector to address challenges in the food supply chain.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Recap of Major Insights on Supply Chain Adaptability

The oil sector stands at a critical juncture in the contemporary global landscape, grappling with unprecedented challenges and opportunities. The sector is intricately woven into the fabric of the global economy, with its supply chain dynamics significantly influencing broader market trends and economic trajectories. This study embarked on a comprehensive journey to dissect the complex layers of supply chain adaptability in the oil sector, shedding light on the transformative strategies and approaches that have emerged in response to oil price volatility.

The analysis delineated in the preceding sections underscores the evolutionary trajectory of global supply chains, which have been significantly molded by recent global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements. These forces have reshaped the supply chain strategies and propelled the sector towards a path of innovation and sustainability. The case studies analysed in this research elucidate the nuanced strategies various sectors adopt to navigate the complex landscape of oil price fluctuations. From the revitalization of lean and local production systems to the adoption of environmental sustainability frameworks, the sector is witnessing a paradigm shift in its approach to supply chain management.

Furthermore, the research highlighted the critical gaps in the current understanding of supply chain responses, emphasizing the necessity for a multi-faceted approach that integrates technological advancements, sustainability considerations, and climate change adaptations. The proposed extensions to existing supply chain performance evaluation models, such as the SCOR 4.0, signify the sector’s transition towards a more nuanced and comprehensive approach to supply chain management, which is aligned with the evolving market dynamics and environmental imperatives.

As we venture into the discussion of the results, it becomes evident that the oil sector is undergoing a significant transformation, characterized by a shift towards sustainability, diversification, and resilience. The integration of synthetic biology with metabolic engineering, for instance, is paving the way for the sustainable production of biofuels, offering a beacon of hope in the volatile oil market. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated the need for economic diversification and regional cooperation, fostering a sustainable growth and development climate.

The evaluation of past supply chain responses reveals a mixed bag of successes and failures. While the industry has witnessed remarkable successes in enhancing supply-chain logistics and adopting green supply chain management practices, it has also encountered challenges in integrating renewable energy technologies and managing external factors influencing supply chain decisions. The analysis suggests that learning from past experiences and adopting a more holistic approach to supplier selection can potentially lead to better supply chain outcomes in the future.

Looking towards the future, the research emphasizes the critical role of predictive analytics in forecasting future supply chain strategies. The integration of big data analytics and advanced predictive models offers a promising avenue for enhancing the accuracy of demand forecasting in supply chains, thereby adding value to supply chain performance. Moreover, considering broader environmental and economic factors in the predictive framework can potentially foster a more robust and resilient supply chain strategy, capable of effectively navigating complex and volatile market dynamics.

The oil sector stands at a crossroads, with the potential to steer towards a path of sustainable growth and development. The insights garnered from this research underscore the necessity for a nuanced understanding of the multifaceted dynamics of oil price volatility and its implications on supply chain strategies. As the sector navigates through these turbulent times, fostering a culture of innovation and adaptability is imperative, integrating insights from various disciplines and adopting a forward-looking approach to supply chain management. The future beckons with promises of a more resilient and sustainable oil sector, characterized by supply chains that are adept at navigating the complex landscape of global market dynamics, environmental considerations, and technological advancements. With a spirit of optimism and determination, the sector must forge ahead, embracing the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead with agility and foresight.

 Strategic Guidance for Oil Companies Facing Price Volatility

In the face of persistent price volatility, oil companies find themselves in a position where strategic foresight is beneficial and essential for sustained growth and stability. As the industry navigates through a period marked by significant fluctuations and uncertainties, it becomes imperative to craft resilient and adaptable strategies capable of weathering the complex dynamics of the global market.

First and foremost, oil companies should prioritize diversifying their energy portfolios to mitigate the risks associated with over-dependence on oil revenues. This entails a concerted effort to invest in renewable energy sources and technologies, fostering a transition towards a more sustainable energy landscape. By broadening their energy portfolios, companies can cushion themselves against the adverse impacts of oil price fluctuations, ensuring a steady stream of revenues even in times of market downturns.

Furthermore, the adoption of advanced analytics and predictive modelling should be at the forefront of strategic planning. These tools offer invaluable insights into market trends and consumer behaviours, facilitating more accurate demand forecasting and inventory management. By leveraging the power of data analytics, companies can enhance their decision-making processes, optimizing supply chain operations and improving overall efficiency. This approach mitigates the risks associated with price volatility and fosters a culture of innovation and continuous improvement within the organization.

Moreover, oil companies should consider strengthening regional collaborations and partnerships to foster a more resilient supply chain network. In the wake of recent global events, the importance of regional cooperation has been brought to the fore, highlighting the potential benefits of collaborative efforts in mitigating the impacts of market disruptions. By forging strong alliances with regional partners, companies can ensure a more stable and reliable supply chain, capable of adapting to changing market dynamics with agility and efficiency.

In addition, a renewed focus on sustainability and environmental stewardship should be integrated into the strategic blueprint of oil companies. As the global community grapples with the pressing challenges of climate change, the oil sector finds itself at the centre of scrutiny and calls for greater environmental responsibility. Companies should proactively engage in initiatives to reduce their carbon footprint and promote environmental conservation. This aligns with global sustainability goals and enhances the company’s reputation as a responsible and forward-thinking player in the industry.

Furthermore, fostering a culture of continuous learning and adaptation is vital in navigating the complex landscape of oil price volatility. Companies should invest in capacity building and skill development, equipping their workforce with the knowledge and tools necessary to adapt to changing market conditions. By nurturing a culture of learning and innovation, companies can ensure a dynamic and responsive organization, capable of steering through the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

The strategic guidance for oil companies in the face of price volatility revolves around a multifaceted approach that integrates diversification, advanced analytics, regional collaboration, sustainability, and continuous learning. By adopting a holistic and forward-thinking strategy, companies can not only safeguard their interests in times of market volatility but also position themselves as leaders in the transition towards a more sustainable and resilient energy sector. Through strategic foresight and adaptability, the oil sector can forge a path of growth and prosperity, embracing the future with confidence and determination.

Projections for the Future of the Oil Sector and Supply Chain Management in Light of Price Fluctuations

The oil sector stands at a crossroads with its intricate global supply chains and pivotal role in the world economy. As we project into the future, several key trends and developments are expected to shape the trajectory of the industry, especially in the context of supply chain management and the ever-present challenge of price fluctuations.

One of the most prominent trends is the continued push towards diversification and sustainability. As global awareness of environmental concerns grows, there is an increasing pressure on the oil sector to reduce its carbon footprint and transition towards more sustainable energy sources. This shift is not merely a response to environmental imperatives but also a strategic move to mitigate the risks associated with price volatility. By diversifying their energy portfolios, oil companies can ensure a more stable revenue stream, cushioning the impacts of sudden price shifts in the oil market.

Technological advancements will also play a significant role in shaping the future of the oil sector. Integrating advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning into supply chain operations is expected to revolutionize demand forecasting, inventory management, and logistics. These tools will give companies real-time insights into market trends, enabling them to make informed decisions and optimize their operations. As the industry grapples with price fluctuations, the ability to harness the power of technology to predict and respond to market changes will be a critical determinant of success.

Furthermore, the global landscape of the oil sector is expected to undergo significant transformations, with regional collaborations and partnerships taking centre stage. The recent global events have underscored the vulnerabilities of over-reliance on global supply chains. In response, there is a growing emphasis on fostering regional alliances and strengthening intra-regional trade. Such collaborations can offer a buffer against global market disruptions, ensuring a more resilient and adaptable supply chain.

Another key projection for the future is the increasing importance of green supply chain management. As consumers become more environmentally conscious, there’s a rising demand for sustainable products and practices. Oil companies will need to integrate environmental considerations into every facet of their supply chain, from sourcing and production to distribution and waste management. This shift towards sustainability will cater to consumer demands and position companies as responsible and forward-thinking players in the global market.

Additionally, the human aspect of supply chain management will gain prominence. As the industry navigates through the complexities of price fluctuations, the role of skilled professionals equipped with the knowledge and expertise to manage these challenges becomes crucial. Investing in human capital, fostering a culture of continuous learning, and emphasizing skill development will be pivotal in ensuring a dynamic and responsive supply chain.

The oil sector, with its intricate global supply chains and pivotal role in the world economy, is undergoing significant transformations, shaped by diversification strategies and sustainability initiatives in response to oil price volatility. The analysis delineated the evolutionary trajectory of global supply chains, emphasizing the impact of diversification strategies and sustainability initiatives under price fluctuations.

The diversification strategies discussed highlighted the importance of exploring alternative energy sources and adopting derivatives-based strategies to hedge against the risks associated with oil price volatility. These strategies are pivotal for companies to ensure a stable revenue stream and mitigate energy-induced supply chain risks, thereby contributing to the resilience and adaptability of the oil sector in the face of fluctuating oil prices.

Sustainability initiatives are becoming increasingly crucial in addressing the supply chain challenges posed by global disruptions such as the COVID-19 outbreak and geopolitical crises. The adoption of responses such as supply diversification, stockpiling, material substitution, recycling, and circular economy strategy, and supply chain traceability are essential in fostering a smooth clean energy transition and enhancing the resilience of supply chains.

Lastly, the geopolitical landscape will continue to influence the oil sector’s trajectory. Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and regional conflicts can profoundly impact oil prices and supply chain dynamics. Companies will need to adopt a proactive approach, closely monitoring geopolitical developments and crafting strategies that can mitigate the associated risks.

In conclusion, the future of the oil sector and its supply chain management in light of price fluctuations is expected to be marked by diversification, technological integration, regional collaborations, sustainability, human capital development, and geopolitical considerations. As the industry embarks on this transformative journey, the emphasis will be on resilience, adaptability, and foresight. Companies that can anticipate these shifts and position themselves accordingly will be best poised to thrive in the evolving landscape, steering the sector towards a future of growth, sustainability, and stability.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT

No conflict of interest has been declared by the authors.

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